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TSMC and Apple have a long standing partnership, and I doubt TSMC is dumb enough to throw a massive amount of long term business away in exchange for short term

TSMC and Apple have a long standing partnership, and I doubt TSMC is dumb enough to throw a massive amount of long term business away in exchange for short term AI bubble gains. TSMC has even been cutting Apple special terms they don't give others: > every time TSMC introduces a major upgrade, called an advanced process node, to its chipmaking, the defect rates of the dies stay relatively high until it can iron out the kinks. For 3 nm, the most cutting-edge node launching this year, the yield on wafers has recently been in the range of 70% to 80%, according to analysts, as well as one person with direct knowledge of the process. That number would be a tough pill to swallow for TSMC’s customers, which typically pay for the wafer and all of the dies on it—including the bad ones. But in a break from standard practice, the Taiwanese manufacturer has only been charging Apple for dies that work—“known good dies,” in industry parlance—these people said. https://archive.ph/yfGLp https://archive.ph/yfGLp

bigyabai 11mo ago
I doubt TSMC has a choice. Any fab allocation Apple can pay for, Nvidia can afford twice over. With that kind of money Nvidia could swallow the cost of 40% broken dies and still turn out higher hardware margins than any 2nm iPhone ever could. Neither the iPhone Air nor Vision Pro justify Apple's push to dominate the latest nodes. Novelty applications like "performance smartphone hardware" will have to wait on the sidelines. The datacenter needs it more than Apple or Qualcomm, and they've brought the beaucoup bucks to prove it.
- GeekyBear 11mo ago
  > Novelty applications like "performance smartphone hardware" will have to wait on the sidelines. A quarter of your revenue isn't a "novelty". > Apple is by far TSMC’s largest customer, accounting for 23% of the Taiwanese chipmaker’s almost $72 billion in revenue in 2022. https://archive.ph/yfGLp https://archive.ph/yfGLp You don't throw away a long term partner over short term AI bubble gains if you intend to be a long term business.
  - bigyabai 11mo ago
    You're right that money talks. I just think you're forgetting which side has more leverage in this game. Apple is most certainly not being thrown away, merely asked to compete at the market price if they want the latest node. Anything else is wasted money from TSMC's perspective, they still make legacy nodes Apple can perfectly well use for the iPhone if they want to save cash.
    - GeekyBear 11mo ago
      At most, TSMC will let Nvidia pay up front to build an additional Fab dedicated fully or partially to their use. The way Apple already does: > The investment includes “a multibillion-dollar commitment from Apple to produce advanced silicon in TSMC’s Fab 21 facility in Arizona,” according to Apple’s February announcement. The plan is to double Apple’s Advanced Manufacturing Fund from $5 billion to $10 billion, with TSMC Arizona a primary beneficiary. https://www.aztechcouncil.org/tucson-chipmaker-tsmc-arizona-becomes-central-hub-in-apples-500-billion-investment-strategy-contentoid36854482/ https://www.aztechcouncil.org/tucson-chipmaker-tsmc-arizona-... They aren't going to throw away a long term partner for short term gains.
      - bigyabai 11mo ago
        Nvidia already did. They and Apple were the two primary investors in TSMC's Arizona plant. Kissing ass gets you in the door with TSMC, but it doesn't protect you from other people outbidding the product you want.
        GeekyBear 11mo ago
        > Kissing ass gets you in the door with TSMC No, but being a long term partner gets you preferential treatment. TSMC has literally been cutting Apple special lower pricing deals while signaling that given Nvidia's extravagant margins, they expect them to pay more per wafer than a normal customer. > TSMC hints at price increase for Nvidia as response to its booming AI hardware business https://www.techspot.com/news/103325-tsmc-hints-increasing-chip-prices-response-nvidia-booming.html https://www.techspot.com/news/103325-tsmc-hints-increasing-c...

bigyabai 11mo ago

I doubt TSMC has a choice. Any fab allocation Apple can pay for, Nvidia can afford twice over. With that kind of money Nvidia could swallow the cost of 40% broken dies and still turn out higher hardware margins than any 2nm iPhone ever could. Neither the iPhone Air nor Vision Pro justify Apple's push to dominate the latest nodes. Novelty applications like "performance smartphone hardware" will have to wait on the sidelines. The datacenter needs it more than Apple or Qualcomm, and they've brought the beaucoup bucks to prove it.

GeekyBear 11mo ago
> Novelty applications like "performance smartphone hardware" will have to wait on the sidelines. A quarter of your revenue isn't a "novelty". > Apple is by far TSMC’s largest customer, accounting for 23% of the Taiwanese chipmaker’s almost $72 billion in revenue in 2022. https://archive.ph/yfGLp https://archive.ph/yfGLp You don't throw away a long term partner over short term AI bubble gains if you intend to be a long term business.
- bigyabai 11mo ago
  You're right that money talks. I just think you're forgetting which side has more leverage in this game. Apple is most certainly not being thrown away, merely asked to compete at the market price if they want the latest node. Anything else is wasted money from TSMC's perspective, they still make legacy nodes Apple can perfectly well use for the iPhone if they want to save cash.
  - GeekyBear 11mo ago
    At most, TSMC will let Nvidia pay up front to build an additional Fab dedicated fully or partially to their use. The way Apple already does: > The investment includes “a multibillion-dollar commitment from Apple to produce advanced silicon in TSMC’s Fab 21 facility in Arizona,” according to Apple’s February announcement. The plan is to double Apple’s Advanced Manufacturing Fund from $5 billion to $10 billion, with TSMC Arizona a primary beneficiary. https://www.aztechcouncil.org/tucson-chipmaker-tsmc-arizona-becomes-central-hub-in-apples-500-billion-investment-strategy-contentoid36854482/ https://www.aztechcouncil.org/tucson-chipmaker-tsmc-arizona-... They aren't going to throw away a long term partner for short term gains.
    - bigyabai 11mo ago
      Nvidia already did. They and Apple were the two primary investors in TSMC's Arizona plant. Kissing ass gets you in the door with TSMC, but it doesn't protect you from other people outbidding the product you want.
      - GeekyBear 11mo ago
        > Kissing ass gets you in the door with TSMC No, but being a long term partner gets you preferential treatment. TSMC has literally been cutting Apple special lower pricing deals while signaling that given Nvidia's extravagant margins, they expect them to pay more per wafer than a normal customer. > TSMC hints at price increase for Nvidia as response to its booming AI hardware business https://www.techspot.com/news/103325-tsmc-hints-increasing-chip-prices-response-nvidia-booming.html https://www.techspot.com/news/103325-tsmc-hints-increasing-c...