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Any fool could have seen self driving cars coming in 2022. But that didn't happen. And still hasn't happened. But if it did happen, it would be easy to say: "A

Any fool could have seen self driving cars coming in 2022. But that didn't happen. And still hasn't happened. But if it did happen, it would be easy to say: "Any fool could have seen this coming in 2012 if they were paying attention to vision model improvements" Hindsight is 20/20.

lisbbb 11mo ago
Everyone who lives in the show belt understands that unless a self driving car can navigate icy, snow-covered roads better than humans can, it's a non-starter. And the car can't just "pull over because it's too dangerous" that doesn't work at all.
- phil21 11mo ago
  That works fine. Self driving doesn’t need to be everything for all conditions everywhere. Give me reliable and safe self driving for Interstate highways in moderate to good weather conditions and I would be very happy. Get better incrementally from there. I live solidly in the snow belt. Autopilot for planes works in this manner too. Theoretically a modern airliner could autofly takeoff to landing entirely autonomously at this point, but they do not. They decrease pilot workload. If you want the full robotaxi panacea everywhere at all times in all conditions? Sure. None of us are likely to see that in our lifetime.
  - fragmede 11mo ago
    Btw that’s basically already here with http://comma.ai http://comma.ai.
deadbabe 11mo ago
We definitely have self driving cars, people just want to move the goal posts constantly.
- enahs19 11mo ago
  We do not. We have much better cruise control and some rudimentary geofenced autonomy. In our lifetimes, neither you nor I will be able to drive in a car that, based on deep learning training on a corpus of real world generated data, goes wherever we want it to whenever we want it to, autonomously.
  - CamperBob2 11mo ago
    This works now. We just don't dare let it. Self-driving cars are a political problem, not (just) a technical one.
  - deadbabe 11mo ago
    Posting this from the backseat of a Waymo driving me from point A to B on its own.
    - ben_w 11mo ago
      They said "goes wherever we want it to whenever we want it to", Waymo is geofenced unless I missed some big news. (That said, I disagree with them saying "In our lifetimes, neither you nor I", that's much too strong a claim)

lisbbb 11mo ago

Everyone who lives in the show belt understands that unless a self driving car can navigate icy, snow-covered roads better than humans can, it's a non-starter. And the car can't just "pull over because it's too dangerous" that doesn't work at all.

phil21 11mo ago
That works fine. Self driving doesn’t need to be everything for all conditions everywhere. Give me reliable and safe self driving for Interstate highways in moderate to good weather conditions and I would be very happy. Get better incrementally from there. I live solidly in the snow belt. Autopilot for planes works in this manner too. Theoretically a modern airliner could autofly takeoff to landing entirely autonomously at this point, but they do not. They decrease pilot workload. If you want the full robotaxi panacea everywhere at all times in all conditions? Sure. None of us are likely to see that in our lifetime.
- fragmede 11mo ago
  Btw that’s basically already here with http://comma.ai http://comma.ai.

deadbabe 11mo ago

We definitely have self driving cars, people just want to move the goal posts constantly.

enahs19 11mo ago
We do not. We have much better cruise control and some rudimentary geofenced autonomy. In our lifetimes, neither you nor I will be able to drive in a car that, based on deep learning training on a corpus of real world generated data, goes wherever we want it to whenever we want it to, autonomously.
- CamperBob2 11mo ago
  This works now. We just don't dare let it. Self-driving cars are a political problem, not (just) a technical one.
- deadbabe 11mo ago
  Posting this from the backseat of a Waymo driving me from point A to B on its own.
  - ben_w 11mo ago
    They said "goes wherever we want it to whenever we want it to", Waymo is geofenced unless I missed some big news. (That said, I disagree with them saying "In our lifetimes, neither you nor I", that's much too strong a claim)