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> In 2029 it's likely we'll have a more libertarian government Haha you're so funny. If Reform get from, what is it right now, five -- or four, or six, depend

> In 2029 it's likely we'll have a more libertarian government Haha you're so funny. If Reform get from, what is it right now, five -- or four, or six, depending on how the wind blows — MPs to 326 MPs, which is enough to secure the majority they think they are getting, then libertarian is not what that government will be. It will be populist, white and significantly authoritarian, because pure tabloid authoritarian thuggery is the only possible strategy that could cause a swing larger than any in history, against two parties (labour and liberal democrat) who currently hold 472 seats and represent a sort of centrist blob between them. And this is to say nothing of the challenge they will face finding 326 non-crazy, credible candidates for 326 very different parliamentary elections. And to say nothing of the foreign influence scandal that currently engulfs senior Reform figures or the catastrophic issues already affecting Reform councils like Kent. Do you think Reform could succeed without Farage? And do you think Farage's reputation is going to somehow be improved by the Nathan Gill situation? I accept they will be the largest minority. But the parliamentary maths to get to an outright majority is really extreme; the system does not support such things easily. Maybe they will get to largest minority and then campaign for PR/AV/STV, and maybe finally people will understand something like it is needed. But Farage will be a lot older in that election. (It surprises me to see people who are so keen to believe that a council election wave is necessarily predictive of a national election wave because, what, somehow everything is different now? Why is it different?)

cbeach 11mo ago
> libertarian is not what that government will be How can you be so sure? Why do you assume that everything that the Reform chairman, Zia Yusuf (head of policy) is lies? What, from his history, suggests that he is a liar? > catastrophic issues already affecting Reform councils like Kent. A small number of councillors left, but KCC is still a strong Reform majority. Councillors come and go throughout the year (just look at the constant stream of council by-elections), so to call Kent a "catastrophe" is hyperbole. > It will be populist, white and significantly authoritarian Populist yes. But I've never understood why popular polices get such a bad rep in a supposed democracy? White? So what? Although it's rapidly changing thanks to Tory/Labour policies, the UK remains a majority white country. Why is politicians' skin colour an issue in your mind? "Significantly authoritarian" how? Can you name an "authoritarian" policy in Reform's last manifesto? > Do you think Reform could succeed without Farage? Yes. Zia Yusuf is an extraordinary man, and my money would be on him becoming the leader when Farage inevitably steps down. And your concerns about white politicians will hopefully be soothed when a second-generation Sri Lankan is our Reform prime minister. https://www.youtube.com/@ZiaYusufOfficial https://www.youtube.com/@ZiaYusufOfficial > the parliamentary maths to get to an outright majority is really extreme; the system does not support such things easily. For that to happen, you need a strong i.e. 30%+ share, and you need numerous opposing parties with similar policies, and all polling at similar levels. That's EXACTLY what's happening, and the electoral calculus puts Reform on a strong majority (low = 325, high = 426) https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#national-parliament-voting-intention https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/... https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
- exasperaited 11mo ago
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- citrin_ru 11mo ago
  > But I've never understood why popular polices get such a bad rep in a supposed democracy? Because they are extremely short shortsighted and a wreck in a long term.
  - cbeach 11mo ago
    The classic populist political policy was the creation of the NHS in 1948. Would you say that was "extremely short shortsighted and a wreck in a long term."?
    - exasperaited 11mo ago
      Nye Bevan was not a populist, and the NHS was not a populist development. In the context of its time it was a fairly pragmatic, top-down central-government post-war-socialism project. It appears more radical in retrospect, but viewed in the light of decisions in the war effort and the post-war effort, and in a country that still had mandatory rationing for example, the NHS was a solid decision that was actually pretty evidence-based. There are few people alive now who can tell you what the foundation of the NHS was like in terms of their professional career, but my dad did tell me about that. In no way would that have been considered "populist"; the UK was severely negative about populists at that time, for one thing. It actually made solid logical/technocratic sense. It definitely came as a huge relief, but in many ways it formalised the resource-sharing schemes in place in various regions, especially London. I am not sure you understand what populism is, along with not understanding that securing a number of seats is not something that logically follows from projections of numbers of seats, particularly in the context of an entirely new party with divisive leadership. We don't have PR, so aggregate data like that is not easily interpreted, and council election data is not that strongly indicative. Also pretty interesting to hear someone who is so pro-Reform so confidently talking up the NHS, considering the long-standing positions of many UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform people that it should be privatised. Free at the point of use healthcare is under threat from Reform in a way that no other political party in the UK would risk, as a consequence of that. Presumably you think we should still have an NHS but the state shouldn't own it. Given the international figures who gather around Reform and the hard right in this country, there is no way the NHS would survive Reform intact.
nunobrito 11mo ago
[flagged]

cbeach 11mo ago

> libertarian is not what that government will be How can you be so sure? Why do you assume that everything that the Reform chairman, Zia Yusuf (head of policy) is lies? What, from his history, suggests that he is a liar? > catastrophic issues already affecting Reform councils like Kent. A small number of councillors left, but KCC is still a strong Reform majority. Councillors come and go throughout the year (just look at the constant stream of council by-elections), so to call Kent a "catastrophe" is hyperbole. > It will be populist, white and significantly authoritarian Populist yes. But I've never understood why popular polices get such a bad rep in a supposed democracy? White? So what? Although it's rapidly changing thanks to Tory/Labour policies, the UK remains a majority white country. Why is politicians' skin colour an issue in your mind? "Significantly authoritarian" how? Can you name an "authoritarian" policy in Reform's last manifesto? > Do you think Reform could succeed without Farage? Yes. Zia Yusuf is an extraordinary man, and my money would be on him becoming the leader when Farage inevitably steps down. And your concerns about white politicians will hopefully be soothed when a second-generation Sri Lankan is our Reform prime minister. https://www.youtube.com/@ZiaYusufOfficial https://www.youtube.com/@ZiaYusufOfficial > the parliamentary maths to get to an outright majority is really extreme; the system does not support such things easily. For that to happen, you need a strong i.e. 30%+ share, and you need numerous opposing parties with similar policies, and all polling at similar levels. That's EXACTLY what's happening, and the electoral calculus puts Reform on a strong majority (low = 325, high = 426) https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#national-parliament-voting-intention https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/... https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

exasperaited 11mo ago
[flagged]
citrin_ru 11mo ago
> But I've never understood why popular polices get such a bad rep in a supposed democracy? Because they are extremely short shortsighted and a wreck in a long term.
- cbeach 11mo ago
  The classic populist political policy was the creation of the NHS in 1948. Would you say that was "extremely short shortsighted and a wreck in a long term."?
  - exasperaited 11mo ago
    Nye Bevan was not a populist, and the NHS was not a populist development. In the context of its time it was a fairly pragmatic, top-down central-government post-war-socialism project. It appears more radical in retrospect, but viewed in the light of decisions in the war effort and the post-war effort, and in a country that still had mandatory rationing for example, the NHS was a solid decision that was actually pretty evidence-based. There are few people alive now who can tell you what the foundation of the NHS was like in terms of their professional career, but my dad did tell me about that. In no way would that have been considered "populist"; the UK was severely negative about populists at that time, for one thing. It actually made solid logical/technocratic sense. It definitely came as a huge relief, but in many ways it formalised the resource-sharing schemes in place in various regions, especially London. I am not sure you understand what populism is, along with not understanding that securing a number of seats is not something that logically follows from projections of numbers of seats, particularly in the context of an entirely new party with divisive leadership. We don't have PR, so aggregate data like that is not easily interpreted, and council election data is not that strongly indicative. Also pretty interesting to hear someone who is so pro-Reform so confidently talking up the NHS, considering the long-standing positions of many UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform people that it should be privatised. Free at the point of use healthcare is under threat from Reform in a way that no other political party in the UK would risk, as a consequence of that. Presumably you think we should still have an NHS but the state shouldn't own it. Given the international figures who gather around Reform and the hard right in this country, there is no way the NHS would survive Reform intact.

nunobrito 11mo ago

[flagged]