6 ms·

Population Pyramids of All Countries (1950-2100)

80 points by madewulf 14y ago

corry 14y ago
A big take-away for entrepreneurs in the developed world is the rapidly aging nature of our population - and the opportunities that may exist because of it. The huge glut of baby-boomers retiring (while there are much fewer young people to support them/their institutions) is going to strain lots of existing systems (healthcare, retirement stuff, pensions, etc) - seems like a big opportunity for 'grey-power' software / tools. Importantly, these upcoming retirees have at least a bit of fluency with software (compared to a generation ago), and at could least handle iPad-like tools (touch, big buttons, etc). I mean, look at Canada's "pyramid" (http://populationpyramid.net/Canada/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Canada/2010/) - a society with that kind of shifting demographic will need all kinds of new tools to help deal with the added strains.
- widk 14y ago
  "Importantly, these upcoming retirees have at least a bit of fluency with software (compared to a generation ago), and at could least handle iPad-like tools (touch, big buttons, etc)." I think this is the most patronizing, biased, and ignorant statement I've ever read on Hacker News.
  - peteretep 14y ago
    So explain why and add information rather than whining. This isn't Reddit.
  - JackFr 14y ago
    Have you read much Hacker News?
  - corry 14y ago
    Apologies, I didn't mean it to be patronizing (which I suppose just makes it that much more so). My point is that most people I've come across in my grandparent's generation can barely use a computer without significant coaching/training. Maybe there are troves of people over the age of 70 out there with astounding computer literacy, but I don't think this is that controversial of a statement. For my parent's generation, it seems that the majority of them have basic fluency (can browse the internet, use office applications, email, etc). Tablets start looking like a great alternative as people age. They are portable, have simpler/more intuitive UI (both thanks to touch and because the apps are more constrained), easier to maintain (less to screw up), etc. Which statement do you disagree with so strongly?
  - think-large 14y ago
    I think that his statements were matter of fact and mostly true. While the baby boomers do know how to use computers and can handle their own for the most part. I'd also say that the knowledge gained by growing up with those tools just isn't there. It doesn't seem as intuitive to them. I think that a chart like this would show a similar trend if it was geared toward exposure to computers and aptitude. Now this is just a hypothesis based on data that I've seen and I'd be open to a study that shows the opposite. Also, big buttons are just a logical step, I know that my dad loves anything with big buttons because it doesn't strain his eyes or take as steady a hand. And some day I'm going to want the same thing. Assuming that age doesn't affect our ability to see and interact with tools it just ridiculous. Hacker News is not a place for people to bury their heads in the sand.
- saalweachter 14y ago
  Personally, I think the biggest change with technology and aging is that nursing homes and old age in general are going to get a lot less scary. I haven't visited a nursing home in a couple of years, but the last time I was there it seemed like a depressing end of life inevitability. The world of the elderly slowly shrinks as they wait for death, as their children have less and less time and will to visit them, as their friends slowly become too infirm to visit them or eventually die, as they themselves become too weak to continue to lead their lives. But for the younger generations, we have two worlds: "real life", and the internet. As our "real lives" slowly fade out, I think a significant fraction of us can subsist quite happily in our internet lives. Our last five or ten years in the nursing home might almost in their own way be the happiest of our lives. No commitments, no job, no school, just a room and a computer. Wake up when you feel like it, get on the internet. Chat with your friends and family who can't or won't visit you in the real world; make new friends who would never befriend a homebound 78-year-old in the real world. Argue endlessly on internet forums. Play through games you didn't have time for when you still worked and went outside. Maybe contribute to open source software, now that you finally have the time. Who knows -- maybe the 22nd century will run on Open Source Software (written in Java, Python, and other archaic 21st century programming languages) by a bunch of retirees with all the time in the world and 50 years of real programming experience. You may achieve more lasting fame and satisfaction after you retire than before. Even without any new technology, medicine, or whatever, I think the increasing comfort with technology will already drastically improve the lives of the next generation to grow old.
  - sageikosa 14y ago
    I asssumed they'd be more scary. With a smaller labor pool, and a larger demand (as people live longer), the cost will go up, outstripping savings long before the need for care ends.
    - saalweachter 14y ago
      Eh, I'm not worried about demographics in my lifetime. The birthrate declines in industrialized nations are only a problem if you're an optimistic xenophobe and imagine that borders are going to stay shut. The younger end of the workforce in industrialized nations will be taken over by immigrants from countries with exploding birthrates like Africa or India, and the dreaded population implosion won't happen. Maybe another N decades later once countries with exploding birthrates sort their shit out we might be at risk of an upside-down pyramid, but I think it's just as likely that we'll gradually oscillate around the replacement birthrate until we reach a comfortable steady-state population. Once we hit steady state population, I think we'll be fine. Assuming we don't back-slide on industrialization (say, if post-peak fossil fuels make everything prohibitively expensive), we're already massively over-supplied on labor. Despite its far-below-replacement birthrates and a hearty helping of xenophobia, Europe's suffering from a demand crisis, not a labor crisis. The US peaked at a 63% employment ratio, pre-crash. I don't have the slightest doubt that we could maintain a pretty nice civilization with an employment ratio of 40%. I wouldn't be surprised if a 25% employment ratio is doable with the right social infrastructure to allocate resources. As long as there is enough labor, it's all just bizarre math. Say in 2050 the total personal income in the US is $27 trillion in 2012 dollars (2% yearly growth above inflation from today). The population of the US has grown to about 400 million (assuming a 0.9% growth rate, it'd be 437 million, but 400 million is nice and round). With a 25% employment ratio, that $27 trillion gets divided 100 million ways, so the average income in 2050 would be $270,000 in 2012 dollars. Right now the average income is about $70,000. Now to tax it. Right now the total US government tax revenues are about $5 trillion. We're running a helluva deficit, so let's add another $1 trillion for a balanced budget. Apply the same 2%-above-inflation growth as we did for income, and the US tax revenues in 2050 should be about $12.7 trillion in 2012 dollars. There are also more people on the dole, so let's increase the budget by another 50%, to $19 trillion, and the average tax burden in 2050 is $190,000 / (working) person. End result, the total tax rate in 2050 is about 70%, compared to a tax rate of about 38% in the US now. After-tax income in 2050 is $80,000 / person, after-tax income in 2012 is $43,000 / person. Productive workers have more after-tax income than they do today, and the unproductive elderly are still comfortably cared for by the government, individual savings or no.
winter_blue 14y ago
I wonder what countries like India and China will do -- There's a massive gender imbalance in those countries; and in a decade or two; there will 50 million men (in India alone) who are unable to find a mate. Ideas/suggestions/thoughts on this issue? EDIT: I deduced the ~50 million statistic from the 1.07 sex ratio for the 15-64 age range reported by the CIA[1]. For China, it's amazingly 1.17 for the same age range (!!! WTH -- that translates to 170 million surplus men!). What are these countries going to do? [1] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...
- sputknick 14y ago
  It's not good. A few things that happen when you have a surplus of men: additional wars (when male labor is plentiful it's easier to go to war), decrease in women's rights (women become commodities), and increased demand on social safety nets (elderly men who never marry are more dependent on the state).
  - positr0n 14y ago
    How would women become commodities? With that many extra men I would imagine they would be precious and highly sought after.
- DougWebb 14y ago
  In the last couple of centuries, lots of Chinese men traveled abroad to find work, many in the western US. More recently men from all over the globe have come to the US for work as well. These men are often supporting families back home, but being unattached makes it even easier to travel abroad to find work in a richer nation than the one you're leaving. I'd expect that trend to continue: the men in these countries that have a too few women will travel to countries where there aren't enough young people to do all of the work that needs doing. They still won't have wives (unless they like much older women), but they'll have money, and that will give them the resources they need to find companionship. (eg: traveling someplace with a surplus of women, competing with poorer men for the attention of women, paying for prostitution, etc.)
- 14y ago
madewulf 14y ago
Some highlights: - extreme gender imbalance in Qatar (probably due to migrant workers) : http://populationpyramid.net/Qatar/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Qatar/2010/ - Very clearly aging population in Japan : http://populationpyramid.net/Japan/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Japan/2010/ - People dying quite young in Afghanistan: http://populationpyramid.net/Afghanistan/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Afghanistan/2010/ - Clear impact of WW2 in Europe in 1950 on the 20-30 age class: http://populationpyramid.net/EUROPE/1950/ http://populationpyramid.net/EUROPE/1950/ The projections past 2010 are interesting too but they tend to smooth the curves which is probably not very realistic, as seen from the past. Nevertheless, it's interesting to see that the population of some countries has already started to shrink, like Russian Federation: http://populationpyramid.net/Russian+Federation/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Russian+Federation/2010/
- dschep 14y ago
  parallels: - UAE has similar gender imbalance http://populationpyramid.net/United+Arab+Emirates/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/United+Arab+Emirates/2010/ - Germany has similar aging issues http://populationpyramid.net/Germany/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Germany/2010/
  - scotty79 14y ago
    http://populationpyramid.net/United+Arab+Emirates/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/United+Arab+Emirates/2010/ looks especially suggestive
  - sesqu 14y ago
    Italy has the same problem as Germany and Japan: http://populationpyramid.net/Italy/2040/ http://populationpyramid.net/Italy/2040/
- goblin89 14y ago
  Regarding Afghanistan—there're many other “young” countries, f.ex. check Burundi, Venezuela, Madagascar. To be fair, the graph by itself doesn't tell whether the reason is high mortality rate or people expatriating, but admittedly the former is more likely…
joubert 14y ago
Not only will the shape be more and more condom-like (which I'm blaming for the drop off in birth rates in developed countries), but apparently an increasing number of folks will live over 100 in 2100, e.g. http://populationpyramid.net/Japan/2100/ http://populationpyramid.net/Japan/2100/
RyanMcGreal 14y ago
The problem with projecting forward is that we have no idea what trends birth/immigration rates will take over the next century. Looking historically, it's clear that birth rates expand and contract cyclically, but this visualization seems to assume a fixed birth rate going forward so that all the hourglass trends smooth out and you end up with bottom-cropped sausage no matter where you start out.
TheFuture 14y ago
All the African nations have huge birthrates http://populationpyramid.net/Niger/2020/ http://populationpyramid.net/Niger/2020/ 10-15yrs from now that is a big workforce.
- smcl 14y ago
  If you look back at Niger though they've had a similar pyramid for the last 20 years, and it's not helped. Due to famine, illness or whatever there seems to be a fairly high mortality rate which prevents this.
pgrote 14y ago
How was the Soviet Union population dispersed throughout the timeline? For instance, Georgia has all the previous times populated with their own population.
gns24 14y ago
The animation here irritates me. If you change the date by five years the graph points should scroll vertically (and adjust horizontally as necessary), otherwise it just makes it harder to see how the pyramid changes over time.
- madewulf 14y ago
  It's indeed not perfect on this front. Furthermore, real statistician pointed that a continuous line for the pyramid was not the good choice, but I was looking more for interesting visuals and ways to spark the interest of people. That's why I used these animations, it gives the feeling to people to see what's happening. Unfortunately, the way I animate this graph is very basic and I did not take time to make it perfect (the data crunching, SEO optimization and UI fine tunings already took way more time than I wanted to put in this). This is just a hobby project for me.
flexie 14y ago
Very interesting! Nice website. Suggestions: Create an easy way to compare a country pyramid with an average pyramid. Make it easy to compare two or more countries in one graph.
jballanc 14y ago
As a fun exercise, check out all of the countries where the "Arab Spring" has been taking place (e.g. Iran, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt). All have a characteristic "bulge" around the 20 age range. There is a tendency for infant mortality to drop (as a consequence of better health care) before fertility does (as a consequence of improved standard of living). The result is a bulge, and as these bulges come of age, they usually lead to revolution...

80 points by madewulf 14y ago

corry 14y ago

A big take-away for entrepreneurs in the developed world is the rapidly aging nature of our population - and the opportunities that may exist because of it. The huge glut of baby-boomers retiring (while there are much fewer young people to support them/their institutions) is going to strain lots of existing systems (healthcare, retirement stuff, pensions, etc) - seems like a big opportunity for 'grey-power' software / tools. Importantly, these upcoming retirees have at least a bit of fluency with software (compared to a generation ago), and at could least handle iPad-like tools (touch, big buttons, etc). I mean, look at Canada's "pyramid" (http://populationpyramid.net/Canada/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Canada/2010/) - a society with that kind of shifting demographic will need all kinds of new tools to help deal with the added strains.

widk 14y ago
"Importantly, these upcoming retirees have at least a bit of fluency with software (compared to a generation ago), and at could least handle iPad-like tools (touch, big buttons, etc)." I think this is the most patronizing, biased, and ignorant statement I've ever read on Hacker News.
- peteretep 14y ago
  So explain why and add information rather than whining. This isn't Reddit.
- JackFr 14y ago
  Have you read much Hacker News?
- corry 14y ago
  Apologies, I didn't mean it to be patronizing (which I suppose just makes it that much more so). My point is that most people I've come across in my grandparent's generation can barely use a computer without significant coaching/training. Maybe there are troves of people over the age of 70 out there with astounding computer literacy, but I don't think this is that controversial of a statement. For my parent's generation, it seems that the majority of them have basic fluency (can browse the internet, use office applications, email, etc). Tablets start looking like a great alternative as people age. They are portable, have simpler/more intuitive UI (both thanks to touch and because the apps are more constrained), easier to maintain (less to screw up), etc. Which statement do you disagree with so strongly?
- think-large 14y ago
  I think that his statements were matter of fact and mostly true. While the baby boomers do know how to use computers and can handle their own for the most part. I'd also say that the knowledge gained by growing up with those tools just isn't there. It doesn't seem as intuitive to them. I think that a chart like this would show a similar trend if it was geared toward exposure to computers and aptitude. Now this is just a hypothesis based on data that I've seen and I'd be open to a study that shows the opposite. Also, big buttons are just a logical step, I know that my dad loves anything with big buttons because it doesn't strain his eyes or take as steady a hand. And some day I'm going to want the same thing. Assuming that age doesn't affect our ability to see and interact with tools it just ridiculous. Hacker News is not a place for people to bury their heads in the sand.
saalweachter 14y ago
Personally, I think the biggest change with technology and aging is that nursing homes and old age in general are going to get a lot less scary. I haven't visited a nursing home in a couple of years, but the last time I was there it seemed like a depressing end of life inevitability. The world of the elderly slowly shrinks as they wait for death, as their children have less and less time and will to visit them, as their friends slowly become too infirm to visit them or eventually die, as they themselves become too weak to continue to lead their lives. But for the younger generations, we have two worlds: "real life", and the internet. As our "real lives" slowly fade out, I think a significant fraction of us can subsist quite happily in our internet lives. Our last five or ten years in the nursing home might almost in their own way be the happiest of our lives. No commitments, no job, no school, just a room and a computer. Wake up when you feel like it, get on the internet. Chat with your friends and family who can't or won't visit you in the real world; make new friends who would never befriend a homebound 78-year-old in the real world. Argue endlessly on internet forums. Play through games you didn't have time for when you still worked and went outside. Maybe contribute to open source software, now that you finally have the time. Who knows -- maybe the 22nd century will run on Open Source Software (written in Java, Python, and other archaic 21st century programming languages) by a bunch of retirees with all the time in the world and 50 years of real programming experience. You may achieve more lasting fame and satisfaction after you retire than before. Even without any new technology, medicine, or whatever, I think the increasing comfort with technology will already drastically improve the lives of the next generation to grow old.
- sageikosa 14y ago
  I asssumed they'd be more scary. With a smaller labor pool, and a larger demand (as people live longer), the cost will go up, outstripping savings long before the need for care ends.
  - saalweachter 14y ago
    Eh, I'm not worried about demographics in my lifetime. The birthrate declines in industrialized nations are only a problem if you're an optimistic xenophobe and imagine that borders are going to stay shut. The younger end of the workforce in industrialized nations will be taken over by immigrants from countries with exploding birthrates like Africa or India, and the dreaded population implosion won't happen. Maybe another N decades later once countries with exploding birthrates sort their shit out we might be at risk of an upside-down pyramid, but I think it's just as likely that we'll gradually oscillate around the replacement birthrate until we reach a comfortable steady-state population. Once we hit steady state population, I think we'll be fine. Assuming we don't back-slide on industrialization (say, if post-peak fossil fuels make everything prohibitively expensive), we're already massively over-supplied on labor. Despite its far-below-replacement birthrates and a hearty helping of xenophobia, Europe's suffering from a demand crisis, not a labor crisis. The US peaked at a 63% employment ratio, pre-crash. I don't have the slightest doubt that we could maintain a pretty nice civilization with an employment ratio of 40%. I wouldn't be surprised if a 25% employment ratio is doable with the right social infrastructure to allocate resources. As long as there is enough labor, it's all just bizarre math. Say in 2050 the total personal income in the US is $27 trillion in 2012 dollars (2% yearly growth above inflation from today). The population of the US has grown to about 400 million (assuming a 0.9% growth rate, it'd be 437 million, but 400 million is nice and round). With a 25% employment ratio, that $27 trillion gets divided 100 million ways, so the average income in 2050 would be $270,000 in 2012 dollars. Right now the average income is about $70,000. Now to tax it. Right now the total US government tax revenues are about $5 trillion. We're running a helluva deficit, so let's add another $1 trillion for a balanced budget. Apply the same 2%-above-inflation growth as we did for income, and the US tax revenues in 2050 should be about $12.7 trillion in 2012 dollars. There are also more people on the dole, so let's increase the budget by another 50%, to $19 trillion, and the average tax burden in 2050 is $190,000 / (working) person. End result, the total tax rate in 2050 is about 70%, compared to a tax rate of about 38% in the US now. After-tax income in 2050 is $80,000 / person, after-tax income in 2012 is $43,000 / person. Productive workers have more after-tax income than they do today, and the unproductive elderly are still comfortably cared for by the government, individual savings or no.

winter_blue 14y ago

I wonder what countries like India and China will do -- There's a massive gender imbalance in those countries; and in a decade or two; there will 50 million men (in India alone) who are unable to find a mate. Ideas/suggestions/thoughts on this issue? EDIT: I deduced the ~50 million statistic from the 1.07 sex ratio for the 15-64 age range reported by the CIA[1]. For China, it's amazingly 1.17 for the same age range (!!! WTH -- that translates to 170 million surplus men!). What are these countries going to do? [1] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

sputknick 14y ago
It's not good. A few things that happen when you have a surplus of men: additional wars (when male labor is plentiful it's easier to go to war), decrease in women's rights (women become commodities), and increased demand on social safety nets (elderly men who never marry are more dependent on the state).
- positr0n 14y ago
  How would women become commodities? With that many extra men I would imagine they would be precious and highly sought after.
DougWebb 14y ago
In the last couple of centuries, lots of Chinese men traveled abroad to find work, many in the western US. More recently men from all over the globe have come to the US for work as well. These men are often supporting families back home, but being unattached makes it even easier to travel abroad to find work in a richer nation than the one you're leaving. I'd expect that trend to continue: the men in these countries that have a too few women will travel to countries where there aren't enough young people to do all of the work that needs doing. They still won't have wives (unless they like much older women), but they'll have money, and that will give them the resources they need to find companionship. (eg: traveling someplace with a surplus of women, competing with poorer men for the attention of women, paying for prostitution, etc.)
14y ago

madewulf 14y ago

Some highlights: - extreme gender imbalance in Qatar (probably due to migrant workers) : http://populationpyramid.net/Qatar/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Qatar/2010/ - Very clearly aging population in Japan : http://populationpyramid.net/Japan/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Japan/2010/ - People dying quite young in Afghanistan: http://populationpyramid.net/Afghanistan/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Afghanistan/2010/ - Clear impact of WW2 in Europe in 1950 on the 20-30 age class: http://populationpyramid.net/EUROPE/1950/ http://populationpyramid.net/EUROPE/1950/ The projections past 2010 are interesting too but they tend to smooth the curves which is probably not very realistic, as seen from the past. Nevertheless, it's interesting to see that the population of some countries has already started to shrink, like Russian Federation: http://populationpyramid.net/Russian+Federation/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Russian+Federation/2010/

dschep 14y ago
parallels: - UAE has similar gender imbalance http://populationpyramid.net/United+Arab+Emirates/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/United+Arab+Emirates/2010/ - Germany has similar aging issues http://populationpyramid.net/Germany/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/Germany/2010/
- scotty79 14y ago
  http://populationpyramid.net/United+Arab+Emirates/2010/ http://populationpyramid.net/United+Arab+Emirates/2010/ looks especially suggestive
- sesqu 14y ago
  Italy has the same problem as Germany and Japan: http://populationpyramid.net/Italy/2040/ http://populationpyramid.net/Italy/2040/
goblin89 14y ago
Regarding Afghanistan—there're many other “young” countries, f.ex. check Burundi, Venezuela, Madagascar. To be fair, the graph by itself doesn't tell whether the reason is high mortality rate or people expatriating, but admittedly the former is more likely…

joubert 14y ago

Not only will the shape be more and more condom-like (which I'm blaming for the drop off in birth rates in developed countries), but apparently an increasing number of folks will live over 100 in 2100, e.g. http://populationpyramid.net/Japan/2100/ http://populationpyramid.net/Japan/2100/

RyanMcGreal 14y ago

The problem with projecting forward is that we have no idea what trends birth/immigration rates will take over the next century. Looking historically, it's clear that birth rates expand and contract cyclically, but this visualization seems to assume a fixed birth rate going forward so that all the hourglass trends smooth out and you end up with bottom-cropped sausage no matter where you start out.

TheFuture 14y ago

All the African nations have huge birthrates http://populationpyramid.net/Niger/2020/ http://populationpyramid.net/Niger/2020/ 10-15yrs from now that is a big workforce.

smcl 14y ago
If you look back at Niger though they've had a similar pyramid for the last 20 years, and it's not helped. Due to famine, illness or whatever there seems to be a fairly high mortality rate which prevents this.

pgrote 14y ago

How was the Soviet Union population dispersed throughout the timeline? For instance, Georgia has all the previous times populated with their own population.

gns24 14y ago

The animation here irritates me. If you change the date by five years the graph points should scroll vertically (and adjust horizontally as necessary), otherwise it just makes it harder to see how the pyramid changes over time.

madewulf 14y ago
It's indeed not perfect on this front. Furthermore, real statistician pointed that a continuous line for the pyramid was not the good choice, but I was looking more for interesting visuals and ways to spark the interest of people. That's why I used these animations, it gives the feeling to people to see what's happening. Unfortunately, the way I animate this graph is very basic and I did not take time to make it perfect (the data crunching, SEO optimization and UI fine tunings already took way more time than I wanted to put in this). This is just a hobby project for me.

flexie 14y ago

Very interesting! Nice website. Suggestions: Create an easy way to compare a country pyramid with an average pyramid. Make it easy to compare two or more countries in one graph.

jballanc 14y ago

As a fun exercise, check out all of the countries where the "Arab Spring" has been taking place (e.g. Iran, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt). All have a characteristic "bulge" around the 20 age range. There is a tendency for infant mortality to drop (as a consequence of better health care) before fertility does (as a consequence of improved standard of living). The result is a bulge, and as these bulges come of age, they usually lead to revolution...