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Every 3-4 years RAM prices spike. There is always an excuse like a fire in a factory. I believe the truth is 1) we have little amount of suppliers, and 2) suppl

by eb0la 11mo ago

Every 3-4 years RAM prices spike. There is always an excuse like a fire in a factory. I believe the truth is 1) we have little amount of suppliers, and 2) supply is very near the limit of what can be sold.

kllrnohj 11mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal There's also been not one but two price fixing settlements at different times for the same companies. Almost like every few years they get bold enough to try again, and just settle as the cost of doing business
- walterbell 11mo ago
  "OMEC" (Organization of Memory Exporting Countries) NAND production quotas? https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423 https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423 > Samsung Electronics has lowered its target for NAND wafer output this year to around 4.72 million sheets, about 7% down from the previous year's 5.07 million. Kioxia also adjusted its output from 4.80 million last year to 4.69 million this year.. SK hynix and Micron are likewise keeping output conservatively constrained in a bid to benefit from higher prices. SK hynix's NAND output fell about 10%, from 2.01 million sheets last year to around 1.80 million this year. Micron's situation is similar: it is maintaining production at Fab 7 in Singapore—its largest NAND production base—in the low 300,000-sheet range, keeping a conservative supply posture. China YMTC (sanctioned by US) and CXMT are increasing production capacity.
  - gruez 11mo ago
    Can you blame them, though? Between the notorious boom-and-bust cycle of semiconductor industry, and everyone (including much of this forum) thinking that AI is a bubble that will crash any minute, is it really that unreasonable that they're not trying to massively ramp up supply?
    - walterbell 11mo ago
      In the meantime, Chinese memory suppliers are ramping supply and winning deals with PC OEMs.
    - lazide 11mo ago
      Like drug or oil cartels (OPEC), the reasons are obvious and reasonable, but also we don’t like to be grabbed by the balls. Both parties can have perfectly rational reasons to both exist and hate each other at the same time.
      - gruez 11mo ago
        >but also we don’t like to be grabbed by the balls. They also don't like being "grabbed by the balls" in a few years time when demand inevitably recedes. It's pretty obvious that people here are throwing a temper tantrum because they need to pay more, and companies aren't rushing in to raise supply, even if they themselves admit such actions would be dumb.
        lazide 10mo ago
        We’re consumers so of course we’re the good guys (/s)
    - Tadpole9181 11mo ago
      Yes, I can absolutely blame companies for illegally coordinating supply reductions to raise their prices on a captured market, and in this case accidentally causing a global supply crisis in doing so. Especially when those companies were already caught doing it multiple times over and told to stop.
      - gruez 11mo ago
        >Yes, I can absolutely blame companies for illegally coordinating supply reductions There's no evidence that they're coordinating, though.
- charcircuit 11mo ago
  That wikipedia page only shows one settlement. The other got dismissed.
- dboreham 11mo ago
  There were also dumping controversies in the 1980s. Who knows that may even be where Trump got his crazy tarrif fetish from.
MotiBanana 10mo ago
I ChatGPT'd your claim, from recent years it seems correct. Here's some basic analysis it did (AI, so take with grain of salt): https://shottr.cc/s/2zv5/SCR-20251127-fm6p.png https://shottr.cc/s/2zv5/SCR-20251127-fm6p.png 2016–2018 price spike DRAM prices nearly tripled. Driven by smartphone demand + server build-out + constrained supply expansion. Resulted in the 2018 antitrust lawsuit accusing Samsung, Micron, SK hynix of coordinated output limits. 2019 oversupply crash After the spike, memory makers over-invested capacity. Demand softened; inventories built up. Prices fell sharply — ~35–40% decline. 2020 mild recovery COVID WFH / remote boom → PC sales up → DRAM demand rose slightly. Prices recovered modestly. 2021 rebound Data-center and cloud expansion returned. DDR5 ramping begins. Market in recovery — but not frothy. 2022–2023 bottom Smartphone shipments declined globally. PC demand dropped post-COVID. OEMs had too much inventory → massive price declines. Some DRAM sold below production cost. 2024–2025 AI/HBM super-cycle AI training systems (NVIDIA, AMD, etc.) require large HBM arrays. Fab capacity reallocated from commodity DRAM → HBM. AI hyperscalers (OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla) created enormous DRAM draw. Commodity DRAM restricted → price spike ≥170% YoY.

by eb0la 11mo ago

kllrnohj 11mo ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal There's also been not one but two price fixing settlements at different times for the same companies. Almost like every few years they get bold enough to try again, and just settle as the cost of doing business

walterbell 11mo ago
"OMEC" (Organization of Memory Exporting Countries) NAND production quotas? https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423 https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423 > Samsung Electronics has lowered its target for NAND wafer output this year to around 4.72 million sheets, about 7% down from the previous year's 5.07 million. Kioxia also adjusted its output from 4.80 million last year to 4.69 million this year.. SK hynix and Micron are likewise keeping output conservatively constrained in a bid to benefit from higher prices. SK hynix's NAND output fell about 10%, from 2.01 million sheets last year to around 1.80 million this year. Micron's situation is similar: it is maintaining production at Fab 7 in Singapore—its largest NAND production base—in the low 300,000-sheet range, keeping a conservative supply posture. China YMTC (sanctioned by US) and CXMT are increasing production capacity.
- gruez 11mo ago
  Can you blame them, though? Between the notorious boom-and-bust cycle of semiconductor industry, and everyone (including much of this forum) thinking that AI is a bubble that will crash any minute, is it really that unreasonable that they're not trying to massively ramp up supply?
  - walterbell 11mo ago
    In the meantime, Chinese memory suppliers are ramping supply and winning deals with PC OEMs.
  - lazide 11mo ago
    Like drug or oil cartels (OPEC), the reasons are obvious and reasonable, but also we don’t like to be grabbed by the balls. Both parties can have perfectly rational reasons to both exist and hate each other at the same time.
    - gruez 11mo ago
      >but also we don’t like to be grabbed by the balls. They also don't like being "grabbed by the balls" in a few years time when demand inevitably recedes. It's pretty obvious that people here are throwing a temper tantrum because they need to pay more, and companies aren't rushing in to raise supply, even if they themselves admit such actions would be dumb.
      - lazide 10mo ago
        We’re consumers so of course we’re the good guys (/s)
  - Tadpole9181 11mo ago
    Yes, I can absolutely blame companies for illegally coordinating supply reductions to raise their prices on a captured market, and in this case accidentally causing a global supply crisis in doing so. Especially when those companies were already caught doing it multiple times over and told to stop.
    - gruez 11mo ago
      >Yes, I can absolutely blame companies for illegally coordinating supply reductions There's no evidence that they're coordinating, though.
charcircuit 11mo ago
That wikipedia page only shows one settlement. The other got dismissed.
dboreham 11mo ago
There were also dumping controversies in the 1980s. Who knows that may even be where Trump got his crazy tarrif fetish from.

MotiBanana 10mo ago

I ChatGPT'd your claim, from recent years it seems correct. Here's some basic analysis it did (AI, so take with grain of salt): https://shottr.cc/s/2zv5/SCR-20251127-fm6p.png https://shottr.cc/s/2zv5/SCR-20251127-fm6p.png 2016–2018 price spike DRAM prices nearly tripled. Driven by smartphone demand + server build-out + constrained supply expansion. Resulted in the 2018 antitrust lawsuit accusing Samsung, Micron, SK hynix of coordinated output limits. 2019 oversupply crash After the spike, memory makers over-invested capacity. Demand softened; inventories built up. Prices fell sharply — ~35–40% decline. 2020 mild recovery COVID WFH / remote boom → PC sales up → DRAM demand rose slightly. Prices recovered modestly. 2021 rebound Data-center and cloud expansion returned. DDR5 ramping begins. Market in recovery — but not frothy. 2022–2023 bottom Smartphone shipments declined globally. PC demand dropped post-COVID. OEMs had too much inventory → massive price declines. Some DRAM sold below production cost. 2024–2025 AI/HBM super-cycle AI training systems (NVIDIA, AMD, etc.) require large HBM arrays. Fab capacity reallocated from commodity DRAM → HBM. AI hyperscalers (OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla) created enormous DRAM draw. Commodity DRAM restricted → price spike ≥170% YoY.