2 ms·
Interesting - that’s a 1T market just in the US alone. Probably another 1T in EU. It’s unclear how much there is in the rest of the world (China is basically in
by vlovich123 11mo ago
Interesting - that’s a 1T market just in the US alone. Probably another 1T in EU. It’s unclear how much there is in the rest of the world (China is basically inaccessible to US firms and after that it’ll depend on low wage local labor vs AI models).
There’s also models getting more capable (larger share of the GDP) and GDP growing more quickly due to automation of GDP activities. But even without that it’s at least a 2T/year opportunity (assuming the model is even a little accurate).
To me this validates the bull case that is being raised in private equity. The major risks are not if the market or valuations exist but whether it’ll be captured by a few major players or if open models and local inference eat away at centralization.
- psunavy03 11mo agoAnd then when 1T worth of workers are laid off, who is going to buy the stuff that the companies who laid them off make?
- vlovich123 11mo agoI am in no way making a value statement of whether this is good or bad. Just analyzing the opportunity.
- brazukadev 11mo agoThat was not a question of good and bad. There's no point in optimizing production if there's no demand for products. Then most businesses would go bankrupt and we would get into a huge recession until things get to a balance again, something worse than 1929
- vlovich123 11mo agoMaybe maybe not. If AI is really taking over, that means the goods are also getting cheaper. It’s too difficult to prognosticate on the impact this has on human labor and society and the economy writ large