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HSBC, the firm who did the analysis in the article, took into account projected revenues matching user numbers of 44% of the world's non-Chinese population.

rvnx 11mo ago
It would be plausible but very optimistic projection if there was no competition that is currently crushing OpenAI
- femiagbabiaka 11mo ago
  Oh, I agree it's implausible. But GP said > People crying about the revenue gap constantly forget that OpenAI still hasn't turned on the ads, porn, and gambling But quite the opposite, HSBC assumed that they will have a virtual global monopoly on AI, and even under those projections they will still need to take on hundreds of billions of debt. I'm sure if they get there getting access to that debt will be easier than I'm assuming currently.
  - rvnx 11mo ago
    Do you believe so ? (like real question, not sarcastic here)
    - femiagbabiaka 11mo ago
      I think that a company with a global monopoly on a thinking machine that replaces wide swaths of current internet business categories, whose user base makes up most of the world outside of the GFW, would be very valuable on the public market and would probably have access to as much debt as they want, even if it had negative consequences for the world economy. Even the 2nd or 3rd place company in that race will be quite profitable. It's not impossible, just implausible.
yabatopia 11mo ago
With zero market share for Google. Living in AImaginationland must be nice. C’mon kids, let’s all sing the AImagination song: AImagination, AImagination, AIiiimagination, …
- femiagbabiaka 11mo ago
  44% for OpenAI wouldn't mean 0% for Google, but considering that even Apple only has about 30% of the global smartphone marketshare, OpenAI getting there seems unlikely.
- pksebben 11mo ago
  i don't know if it's where you got it, but that made my head go straight to Ocean from Wonder Showzen.
famouswaffles 11mo ago
Calling a 2% penetration 'taking into account' is pushing it. I don't think a serious push into advertising would be that low.

rvnx 11mo ago

It would be plausible but very optimistic projection if there was no competition that is currently crushing OpenAI

femiagbabiaka 11mo ago
Oh, I agree it's implausible. But GP said > People crying about the revenue gap constantly forget that OpenAI still hasn't turned on the ads, porn, and gambling But quite the opposite, HSBC assumed that they will have a virtual global monopoly on AI, and even under those projections they will still need to take on hundreds of billions of debt. I'm sure if they get there getting access to that debt will be easier than I'm assuming currently.
- rvnx 11mo ago
  Do you believe so ? (like real question, not sarcastic here)
  - femiagbabiaka 11mo ago
    I think that a company with a global monopoly on a thinking machine that replaces wide swaths of current internet business categories, whose user base makes up most of the world outside of the GFW, would be very valuable on the public market and would probably have access to as much debt as they want, even if it had negative consequences for the world economy. Even the 2nd or 3rd place company in that race will be quite profitable. It's not impossible, just implausible.

yabatopia 11mo ago

With zero market share for Google. Living in AImaginationland must be nice. C’mon kids, let’s all sing the AImagination song: AImagination, AImagination, AIiiimagination, …

femiagbabiaka 11mo ago
44% for OpenAI wouldn't mean 0% for Google, but considering that even Apple only has about 30% of the global smartphone marketshare, OpenAI getting there seems unlikely.
pksebben 11mo ago
i don't know if it's where you got it, but that made my head go straight to Ocean from Wonder Showzen.

famouswaffles 11mo ago

Calling a 2% penetration 'taking into account' is pushing it. I don't think a serious push into advertising would be that low.