I actually have a paper published on this subject [1], except we use models that have a basis in epidemiology. That article is unfortunately behind a paywall,

I actually have a paper published on this subject [1], except we use models that have a basis in epidemiology. That article is unfortunately behind a paywall, but here's an unbranded copy of an early draft of the paper [2]. We base our work off of the classical SIR model [3], which we extend to include the possibility of reinfection (since it's possible to become reinfected with a meme after initially losing interest). The key features of the SIR model is a rate of infection proportional to the social interaction between infected and susceptible individuals, where infected individuals gradually lose interest (or not, depending on how the parameters are set). With appropriate values for parameters, our model can very closely fit the characteristic curves from viral infections, particularly those with an initial large spike followed by a gradual taper, as you can see from these Google Trends data [4]. The model can also be used to predict future infection levels (assuming no change in system dynamics). [1] http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0307904X11002824 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0307904X11... [2] http://stash.synchroverge.com/files/viral_memetic_model.pdf http://stash.synchroverge.com/files/viral_memetic_model.pdf [3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SIR_model http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemi... [4] http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=two%20girls%20one%20cup http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=two%20girls%20one%20c...