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> Europe desperately needs to secure its own semi conductor supply chain. To be fair, Europe does have ASML which has something like 2/3 market share in DUV an

> Europe desperately needs to secure its own semi conductor supply chain. To be fair, Europe does have ASML which has something like 2/3 market share in DUV and almost monoplistic in EUV. The moat is enormous, so they are unlikely to face any serious competition for at least a decade if not more.

ricardobeat 11mo ago
China is already catching up. They have a desktop-sized 14nm EUV machine, and Xiami is setting up a 3nm manufacturing line, both entirely with local tech. Thanks USA for the export ban.
- andy_ppp 11mo ago
  Xiami have designed a 3nm chip, however I am not convinced SMIC have a process for them to build the chip at any scale yet. Let's see - eventually China will obviously have a process comparable to TSMC but I think currently they are at least 18 months behind. They were 5 years behind before the sanctions so they are catching up fast.
- speed_spread 11mo ago
  They would be catching up anyway. At least now there will be a second source for the tech. ASML does fantastic work but they may not have all the answers.
- ecshafer 11mo ago
  China has been dumping massive amounts of resources in this for at least 20 years, this (Making chips domestically with local tech) has been a long term goal for a very long time. The chip ban is relatively recent. IF it had an effect it was merely expediting a process that was going to happen regardless. China was NEVER going to be content importing Western chips or western machines to make chips indefinitely.
  - kevin_thibedeau 11mo ago
    The EUV ban is not recent.
    - ecshafer 11mo ago
      2019 is pretty recent. But it doesn't matter if the ban is 2000 or 2025. China was going to try and get the machines through subterfuge, industrial espionage, reverse engineering or novel engineering. They were always going to get a domestic chip production industry, its a matter of national security.
- traceroute66 11mo ago
  > China is already catching up. Sure of course, just like COMAC vs Airbus/Boeing, BYD vs Western EVs etc. But this is a bit different IMHO. First there's still a lot of catching-up to do. And second are they going to be able to gain sufficient marketshare in the Western market ? I am thinking here, both in terms of displacing ASML and in terms of Western companies being willing to depend on Chinese tech for such critical activities.
  - aljgz 11mo ago
    Selling chips or chip manufacturing equipment is one of the many ways to get a return on this investment. There's a whole hierarchy of products and services that benefit from this. At any level that there is a ban/preference to not use Chinese products it translates to a lower price for the same technology, which feeds into the domestic market for dependent tech. Nobody buys their chips? They build data centers and sell computation as service. That does not sell enough? Domestic R&D now has an edge, creating momentum for medicine, agriculture, consumer products, weapons. You can ban a small country for a long time, or a large country for a small time, but not large for long
- KK7NIL 11mo ago
  > They have a desktop-sized 14nm EUV Who falls for this crap? An ASML EUV machine costs over $100 million and is delivered in dozens of shipping containers, taking up 2 floors in a fab. You're going to need really extraordinary evidence that the PRC has a "desktop sized EUV machine" if you want us to believe you.
  - ricardobeat 11mo ago
    They announced this during an industry conference last week. It’s entirely different tech to ASML’s. This is the company/machine: http://lumi-universe.com/?list_27/84.html http://lumi-universe.com/?list_27/84.html You can check the dimensions there, max 80cm. This is only the EUV light source, not an entire wafer fab.
    - generuso 11mo ago
      It is not the same kind of equipment. ASML machines use a 500 watt EUV source in order to be able to expose a few wafers per minute. The tabletop device has the output power listed as "1 uw-10 mw". This is a source intended of spectroscopy instrumentation, not for exposing wafers.
    - KK7NIL 11mo ago
      > This is only the EUV light source, not an entire wafer fab. When we say "EUV machine" in the semiconductor context, it's pretty unambiguous that we're talking about a lithography machine using EUV and that can do, at least, ~120 300 mm wafers per hour. As another comment explained, that machine you linked to is nothing like what we mean by "EUV machine", it's not even attempting to be a lithography tool. At first I thought you were being willingly misleading but your wording suggests you're not, so I suggest binging Asianometry on YouTube if you'd like to get up to speed on the semi industry.
anon291 11mo ago
Europe cannot actually do a whole of monopolization with ASML without incurring the wrath of its only armed forces, the United States of America. Europe is essentially a military junta controlled by a foreign power. They perceive themselves to be a country because they get to do elections and stuff. Cute Not that Japan is much different

ricardobeat 11mo ago

China is already catching up. They have a desktop-sized 14nm EUV machine, and Xiami is setting up a 3nm manufacturing line, both entirely with local tech. Thanks USA for the export ban.

andy_ppp 11mo ago
Xiami have designed a 3nm chip, however I am not convinced SMIC have a process for them to build the chip at any scale yet. Let's see - eventually China will obviously have a process comparable to TSMC but I think currently they are at least 18 months behind. They were 5 years behind before the sanctions so they are catching up fast.
speed_spread 11mo ago
They would be catching up anyway. At least now there will be a second source for the tech. ASML does fantastic work but they may not have all the answers.
ecshafer 11mo ago
China has been dumping massive amounts of resources in this for at least 20 years, this (Making chips domestically with local tech) has been a long term goal for a very long time. The chip ban is relatively recent. IF it had an effect it was merely expediting a process that was going to happen regardless. China was NEVER going to be content importing Western chips or western machines to make chips indefinitely.
- kevin_thibedeau 11mo ago
  The EUV ban is not recent.
  - ecshafer 11mo ago
    2019 is pretty recent. But it doesn't matter if the ban is 2000 or 2025. China was going to try and get the machines through subterfuge, industrial espionage, reverse engineering or novel engineering. They were always going to get a domestic chip production industry, its a matter of national security.
traceroute66 11mo ago
> China is already catching up. Sure of course, just like COMAC vs Airbus/Boeing, BYD vs Western EVs etc. But this is a bit different IMHO. First there's still a lot of catching-up to do. And second are they going to be able to gain sufficient marketshare in the Western market ? I am thinking here, both in terms of displacing ASML and in terms of Western companies being willing to depend on Chinese tech for such critical activities.
- aljgz 11mo ago
  Selling chips or chip manufacturing equipment is one of the many ways to get a return on this investment. There's a whole hierarchy of products and services that benefit from this. At any level that there is a ban/preference to not use Chinese products it translates to a lower price for the same technology, which feeds into the domestic market for dependent tech. Nobody buys their chips? They build data centers and sell computation as service. That does not sell enough? Domestic R&D now has an edge, creating momentum for medicine, agriculture, consumer products, weapons. You can ban a small country for a long time, or a large country for a small time, but not large for long
KK7NIL 11mo ago
> They have a desktop-sized 14nm EUV Who falls for this crap? An ASML EUV machine costs over $100 million and is delivered in dozens of shipping containers, taking up 2 floors in a fab. You're going to need really extraordinary evidence that the PRC has a "desktop sized EUV machine" if you want us to believe you.
- ricardobeat 11mo ago
  They announced this during an industry conference last week. It’s entirely different tech to ASML’s. This is the company/machine: http://lumi-universe.com/?list_27/84.html http://lumi-universe.com/?list_27/84.html You can check the dimensions there, max 80cm. This is only the EUV light source, not an entire wafer fab.
  - generuso 11mo ago
    It is not the same kind of equipment. ASML machines use a 500 watt EUV source in order to be able to expose a few wafers per minute. The tabletop device has the output power listed as "1 uw-10 mw". This is a source intended of spectroscopy instrumentation, not for exposing wafers.
  - KK7NIL 11mo ago
    > This is only the EUV light source, not an entire wafer fab. When we say "EUV machine" in the semiconductor context, it's pretty unambiguous that we're talking about a lithography machine using EUV and that can do, at least, ~120 300 mm wafers per hour. As another comment explained, that machine you linked to is nothing like what we mean by "EUV machine", it's not even attempting to be a lithography tool. At first I thought you were being willingly misleading but your wording suggests you're not, so I suggest binging Asianometry on YouTube if you'd like to get up to speed on the semi industry.

anon291 11mo ago

Europe cannot actually do a whole of monopolization with ASML without incurring the wrath of its only armed forces, the United States of America. Europe is essentially a military junta controlled by a foreign power. They perceive themselves to be a country because they get to do elections and stuff. Cute Not that Japan is much different