6 ms·

Yeah. Who wants to be a military superpower or a manufacturing superpower, when they could be a regulatory superpower.

inglor_cz 11mo ago
One of our problems (EU citizen here too) is the delusion that because everyone in the world wants access to European markets, everyone will bend their knees to our regulations and we can effectively dictate the world's standards. Given that our market share on the global economy is dropping steadily, this won't hold forever. By 2040 or so it might be more advantageous for Asian producers to just avoid our bureaucratized space altogether. Already this year we had a showdown with Qatar over some ESG reporting and we lost handily, because we needed their gas more than they needed our money.
- riffraff 11mo ago
  > By 2040 or so it might be more advantageous for Asian producers to just avoid our bureaucratized space altogether. in favour of what? Every other large market (China, India, USA) has extreme protectionism in place.
  - inglor_cz 11mo ago
    At least in case of India, it is in their interest to lower their trade barriers against Thailand, Viet Nam, Philippines, Indonesia etc. This region with 500 million people in it will oscillate between Chinese and Indian influence. The Chinese are more powerful and richer, so the only way in which India can compete for influence is being more friendly.
    - tonyhart7 11mo ago
      India is too busy fighting on their own sphere of influence (south asian) china keep them in check via pakistan
      - inglor_cz 11mo ago
        Now, but we're talking 2040, and the situation may look a lot different. India has been doing some incredible things lately. They just electrified their entire rail network in some five years. That is actually impressive - you need a lot of qualified people and coordination for that. If they keep up, they will become a strategic adversary of China in Indochina (see the name?) quite soon.
        eldaisfish 11mo ago
        India's rail network is not fully electrified, this is false. Even the most popular broad gauge network is not fully electrified. Diesel trains are still very common. Remember also that the Indian government is very skilled at manipulating data without actually delivering results. Just look at the lies they spewed during the pandemic about deaths. India's promised ascendance to power and influence remain perpetually a few decades away. Meanwhile, the poor continue to lose purchasing power, the rich exploit the entire country, and India's total economic exports are comparable to those of the Netherlands.
  - andsoitis 11mo ago
    > > By 2040 or so it might be more advantageous for Asian producers to just avoid our bureaucratized space altogether. > in favour of what? Every other large market (China, India, USA) has extreme protectionism in place. The EU has higher tariffs than the US overall, especially for agriculture and cars. Policy is structured and uniform. The IS has lower tariffs than the EU overall, but often used as political/economic weapon on specific countries and sectors. The current administration's tactics notwithstanding.
- constantcrying 11mo ago
  Exactly. For the past decades much of the world was entirely dependent on European products. This gave the EU and European countries enormous leverage in setting standards and enforcing their own regulations across the world. This is very clearly changing, in many areas European companies are depending on Chinese technology (e.g. EV batteries). I am sure that some part of the EU establishment is aware of this, but the measure taken are practically laughable compared to the magnitude of the problem. At some future point in time dealing with the EU will just not be worth it, as competitive companies outside the EU, not weighed down by EU regulations, will fill the gaps and entering the EU market will be seen as too toxic.
sofixa 11mo ago
You're saying that like the two are at odds. France is a military superpower with almost entirely France, worst case scenario western EU, based supply chain. Italy, Spain, to a lesser extent Germany are too. Manufacturing is also pretty strong across (most) of the EU. Automotive is struggling in Germany, but booming in France (Renault are killing it). Leading in Aeronautics too. It's just mostly high value manufacturing. In the EU, 25% of the economy is in manufacturing. Compare with 10% in the US. And those regulations are, more often than not, for everyone's benefit - at least EU, but often the Brussels effect applies so a lot of the rest of the world benefits too.
- constantcrying 11mo ago
  What you are saying is just not true. Frances car industry is dying. Renault is a small company, not even in the top 10 and Stellantis is doing extremely poorly, also affecting Italy's car industry. Within a decade or so COMAC will have a competitive passenger plane, seriously threatening Airbus market share. Germany's entire industry is currently dying since it is impossible to have a cost competitive manufacturing industry while having some of the highest energy prices in the world. Your entire comment looks at the current status quo, not at the continuous downward trend or the abyss which awaits if Stellantis or VW Group get pushed out of the market by Chinese competition. Do you think Germany or France will continue to have a car industry, when China makes cars or the same quality for 70% of the price? Because that is currently the reality.
  - mono442 11mo ago
    High energy prices are a self-imposed problem. The price of electricity is heavily dependent on the price of the most expensive energy source. Electricity from fossil fuels is expensive in European Union due to emissions trading system. A coal-fired power plant pays around 2x more for the emissions than for the coal itself. I don't know how the maths work for a natural gas plant but gas is more expensive in Europe anyway compared to the US.
  - sofixa 11mo ago
    > Renault is a small company, not even in the top 10 How exactly is that even remotely relevant? They only sell in select markets, and are killing it in them (best selling EV in the EU, Renault 5). What, if it's not a global behemoth dominating the world, it doesn't count as manufacturing? What exactly is your argument here? > Within a decade or so COMAC will have a competitive passenger plane, seriously threatening Airbus market share. Nope. Their own goal is to have, within a decade or so, a fully Chinese plane (their current C919 heavily relies on engines and other critical components from European and American suppliers). Specifically for the engines, they're looking at a comparable to the Leap 1C they were sold by CFM (American General Electric+French Safran joint venture). Those engines are around a generation behind the current best ones (Leap 1A, Pratt&Whitney GTF). In a decade, CFM and Rolls-Royce will have a new generation out, both having new models being tested right now. So, in around a decade, the Chinese engines will be two generations behind. Efficiency is critical in aviation. And that's just the engines, in a decade Airbus will have a new A320 series replacement out, and Boeing will have one on the way too. And this is just for short to medium haul planes. And both the C919 and the C909 show that it's taking years for production to ramp up to any relevant numbers. Airbus recently opened a second final assembly line in Tianjin for the local market, they wouldn't have done that without being sure they have a market there for at least a decade or more. > Your entire comment looks at the current status quo, not at the continuous downward trend or the abyss which awaits if Stellantis or VW Group get pushed out of the market by Chinese competition. This is assuming that the Chinese competition would be allowed to compete on the same terms, which we already know won't happen - both the EU and the US have put in tariffs. And we can see that a low cost Dacia EV is similarly priced to a low cost BYD EV.

One of our problems (EU citizen here too) is the delusion that because everyone in the world wants access to European markets, everyone will bend their knees to our regulations and we can effectively dictate the world's standards. Given that our market share on the global economy is dropping steadily, this won't hold forever. By 2040 or so it might be more advantageous for Asian producers to just avoid our bureaucratized space altogether. Already this year we had a showdown with Qatar over some ESG reporting and we lost handily, because we needed their gas more than they needed our money.

riffraff 11mo ago
> By 2040 or so it might be more advantageous for Asian producers to just avoid our bureaucratized space altogether. in favour of what? Every other large market (China, India, USA) has extreme protectionism in place.
- inglor_cz 11mo ago
  At least in case of India, it is in their interest to lower their trade barriers against Thailand, Viet Nam, Philippines, Indonesia etc. This region with 500 million people in it will oscillate between Chinese and Indian influence. The Chinese are more powerful and richer, so the only way in which India can compete for influence is being more friendly.
  - tonyhart7 11mo ago
    India is too busy fighting on their own sphere of influence (south asian) china keep them in check via pakistan
    - inglor_cz 11mo ago
      Now, but we're talking 2040, and the situation may look a lot different. India has been doing some incredible things lately. They just electrified their entire rail network in some five years. That is actually impressive - you need a lot of qualified people and coordination for that. If they keep up, they will become a strategic adversary of China in Indochina (see the name?) quite soon.
      - eldaisfish 11mo ago
        India's rail network is not fully electrified, this is false. Even the most popular broad gauge network is not fully electrified. Diesel trains are still very common. Remember also that the Indian government is very skilled at manipulating data without actually delivering results. Just look at the lies they spewed during the pandemic about deaths. India's promised ascendance to power and influence remain perpetually a few decades away. Meanwhile, the poor continue to lose purchasing power, the rich exploit the entire country, and India's total economic exports are comparable to those of the Netherlands.
- andsoitis 11mo ago
  > > By 2040 or so it might be more advantageous for Asian producers to just avoid our bureaucratized space altogether. > in favour of what? Every other large market (China, India, USA) has extreme protectionism in place. The EU has higher tariffs than the US overall, especially for agriculture and cars. Policy is structured and uniform. The IS has lower tariffs than the EU overall, but often used as political/economic weapon on specific countries and sectors. The current administration's tactics notwithstanding.
constantcrying 11mo ago
Exactly. For the past decades much of the world was entirely dependent on European products. This gave the EU and European countries enormous leverage in setting standards and enforcing their own regulations across the world. This is very clearly changing, in many areas European companies are depending on Chinese technology (e.g. EV batteries). I am sure that some part of the EU establishment is aware of this, but the measure taken are practically laughable compared to the magnitude of the problem. At some future point in time dealing with the EU will just not be worth it, as competitive companies outside the EU, not weighed down by EU regulations, will fill the gaps and entering the EU market will be seen as too toxic.

sofixa 11mo ago

You're saying that like the two are at odds. France is a military superpower with almost entirely France, worst case scenario western EU, based supply chain. Italy, Spain, to a lesser extent Germany are too. Manufacturing is also pretty strong across (most) of the EU. Automotive is struggling in Germany, but booming in France (Renault are killing it). Leading in Aeronautics too. It's just mostly high value manufacturing. In the EU, 25% of the economy is in manufacturing. Compare with 10% in the US. And those regulations are, more often than not, for everyone's benefit - at least EU, but often the Brussels effect applies so a lot of the rest of the world benefits too.

constantcrying 11mo ago
What you are saying is just not true. Frances car industry is dying. Renault is a small company, not even in the top 10 and Stellantis is doing extremely poorly, also affecting Italy's car industry. Within a decade or so COMAC will have a competitive passenger plane, seriously threatening Airbus market share. Germany's entire industry is currently dying since it is impossible to have a cost competitive manufacturing industry while having some of the highest energy prices in the world. Your entire comment looks at the current status quo, not at the continuous downward trend or the abyss which awaits if Stellantis or VW Group get pushed out of the market by Chinese competition. Do you think Germany or France will continue to have a car industry, when China makes cars or the same quality for 70% of the price? Because that is currently the reality.
- mono442 11mo ago
  High energy prices are a self-imposed problem. The price of electricity is heavily dependent on the price of the most expensive energy source. Electricity from fossil fuels is expensive in European Union due to emissions trading system. A coal-fired power plant pays around 2x more for the emissions than for the coal itself. I don't know how the maths work for a natural gas plant but gas is more expensive in Europe anyway compared to the US.
- sofixa 11mo ago
  > Renault is a small company, not even in the top 10 How exactly is that even remotely relevant? They only sell in select markets, and are killing it in them (best selling EV in the EU, Renault 5). What, if it's not a global behemoth dominating the world, it doesn't count as manufacturing? What exactly is your argument here? > Within a decade or so COMAC will have a competitive passenger plane, seriously threatening Airbus market share. Nope. Their own goal is to have, within a decade or so, a fully Chinese plane (their current C919 heavily relies on engines and other critical components from European and American suppliers). Specifically for the engines, they're looking at a comparable to the Leap 1C they were sold by CFM (American General Electric+French Safran joint venture). Those engines are around a generation behind the current best ones (Leap 1A, Pratt&Whitney GTF). In a decade, CFM and Rolls-Royce will have a new generation out, both having new models being tested right now. So, in around a decade, the Chinese engines will be two generations behind. Efficiency is critical in aviation. And that's just the engines, in a decade Airbus will have a new A320 series replacement out, and Boeing will have one on the way too. And this is just for short to medium haul planes. And both the C919 and the C909 show that it's taking years for production to ramp up to any relevant numbers. Airbus recently opened a second final assembly line in Tianjin for the local market, they wouldn't have done that without being sure they have a market there for at least a decade or more. > Your entire comment looks at the current status quo, not at the continuous downward trend or the abyss which awaits if Stellantis or VW Group get pushed out of the market by Chinese competition. This is assuming that the Chinese competition would be allowed to compete on the same terms, which we already know won't happen - both the EU and the US have put in tariffs. And we can see that a low cost Dacia EV is similarly priced to a low cost BYD EV.