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I'm young, I'll take that bet. In 25 years windows will still have greater than 50% consumer computer marketshare out of sheer momentum.
by llbbdd 11mo ago
I'm young, I'll take that bet. In 25 years windows will still have greater than 50% consumer computer marketshare out of sheer momentum.
- Nextgrid 11mo agoI'd be very surprised if "consumer computer" will be anything but a niche thing in 25 years.
- llbbdd 11mo agoIt might be just a remote UI over "Windows Cloud Eternal" at that point but if by then we've moved to "Apple Forever OS" or "The Eternal Year of the Linux Desktop" I'll make a balanced diet out of hats
- joseda-hg 11mo agoHonestly, a Phone/Dex style thin client that you connect to a bigger screen and that remotes into Windows Cloud Eternal seems like a solid sale for them They sell you compute, plus a phone that gets renewed every 2-5 Years
- pezezin 11mo agoI have been hearing the same for the last 20 years, if not longer, and yet the consumer computer remains strong.
- raw_anon_1111 11mo agoAbsolutely no one said consumer computing was going away in 2005. What were they supposed to be replaced with?
- typewithrhythm 11mo agoBefore the AI stuff it seemed people assumed everything would get smaller and more portable continuously. Not consumer computing, but desktop computers would disappear.
- bigstrat2003 11mo agoWhat are they going to be replaced with now? You still can't do anything actually useful on a mobile device. You need an actual computer to get anything done besides dicking around playing games or scrolling through apps.
- raw_anon_1111 11mo agoPeople do “useful” things with mobile devices all of the time with only their phones. Most people don’t define “useful” as running VIM in a terminal and running Docker.
- Jordan-117 11mo agoYou might be shocked at how many people make big-ticket purchases and other "major" stuff on their phone.
- raw_anon_1111 11mo ago8 years ago, we looked for our house, managed the loan process and all of the documents, signed all of the non in person paperwork, reviewed the options when he had our house built from our phones. We did the same when we managed the selling process in 2024 and when we bought our current home in 2022. We arranged a year long “digital nomad” series of trips where we flew to over a dozen cities including flights and hotels on our phones starting in 2022.
- pezezin 11mo agoSomething like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Computer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Computer (but looks like I got my timing wrong, as those were proposed 25~30 years ago!)
- raw_anon_1111 11mo agoAnd those were mostly marketed toward businesses not consumers. Even your citation says the idea quickly died when computers were less than $1000. Around 2000, was the time that eMachines were selling $400 desktops and you had promotions from places like MSN making them free if you signed a contract for dialup.
- Nextgrid 11mo ago> consumer computer remains strong Besides techies I'm seeing more and more people not even having a personal computer at all, doing most of their "computing" on their phone and using their work computer for the rare task that does require a real computer. The younger generations have actually regressed in computer proficiency, file management, etc.
- pezezin 11mo agoThat depends on your social circle. Among gamers, consoles are losing popularity and PC gaming is increasing, even in countries like Japan (where I live).
- mekoka 11mo agoIf the last 15 years are any indication, in less than 15 years, Microsoft will make Azure Linux their main OS and they'll skin the desktop edition to resurrect Lindows. It'll take a 2-5 years campaign to move most of the remaining Windows user base to it. Oh and also, it'll probably be free.
- llbbdd 11mo agoIn 15 years, Windows will still be running hospitals and governments and Linux will have dropped back well below 5% desktop usage because using Linux on the desktop in the modern day is an ideological decision and literally never a technical one
- drw85 11mo agoMicrosoft themselves have actually made it a technical one. By dropping support for perfectly fine computer without TPM/SecureBoot, they have made it an actual technical decision to install an alternative to their OS.
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]