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The "bubble" will burst if it turns out that the demand for OpenAI/Anthropic's services is primarily driven by investment-dollars (i.e. VC money) rather than re
by nr378 11mo ago
The "bubble" will burst if it turns out that the demand for OpenAI/Anthropic's services is primarily driven by investment-dollars (i.e. VC money) rather than revenue-dollars.
If OpenAI/Anthropic's customers are themselves generating real revenue with reasonable margins, then it's not a bubble at all.
- MikeNotThePope 11mo agoReminds me of the obscene valuations of larger tech companies like Microsoft, Cisco, and Amazon during the dotcom bubble. The companies were overvalued by any reasonable measure. Cisco Systems - Peak: $555-579B market cap, March 2000 ($80/share) - Low: $8.12/share, late 2002 (down ~90%) - Recovery: Never fully recovered; still below peak as of Nov 2025 ($308B market cap) Microsoft - Peak: $614B market cap, December 1999 - Low: Down ~60% to below $250B by December 2000 - Recovery: October 2016 (17 years to recover) Amazon - Peak: $113/share, December 1999 - Low: $5.51/share, late 2001 (down ~95%) - Recovery: Late 2009 (10 years), though briefly recovered in 2007 before 2008 crash set it back to full recovery in 2010 It will be interesting to see which companies survive and which implode.
- 1718627440 11mo agoAre the recovery times inflation adjusted?
- MikeNotThePope 11mo agoNo, these are just the raw numbers. Adjusting for inflation, I guess recovery times would be even longer.