4 ms·

> that's the best they'll have until they can manufacture EUV machines domestically. And how far out is that?

by beej71 11mo ago

stickfigure 11mo ago
So far only one company in the world has successfully accomplished it, so the answer could be "a very very long time".
KK7NIL 11mo ago
If you ask PRC shills, it's just around the corner because this one Chinese lab demonstrated a very small part of the system. And a surprising number of westerners fall for that crap. My guess is that it's at least 10 years away, but that could obviously change depending on what resources they're willing to commit. But even at that point they'll be 2 decades behind ASML's EUV tech so it probably won't be competitive.
- buran77 11mo ago
  > If you ask PRC shills GP must have been asking for the non-PRC shill opinion. > My guess is that it's at least 10 years away, That doesn't sound at all like a lot. China has a uniquely effective industrial espionage... industry, combined with a very thick geopolitical skin and disregard for international demands. This helps accelerate any process that others have already perfected. We'll start to see the real deal if/when China eventually catches up to the leaders in every field and the only way to pull ahead is to be entirely self propelled (you can't take advantage of someone else's draft when you're in front of the pack).
- tracker1 11mo ago
  I think you may underestimate the ability of China to abuse industrial espionage at scale.
  - ruszki 11mo ago
    There are things which needs time, even with all or almost all the information at hand, just like with atomic bomb. I’m not sure whether this case similar to that, but that ASML in front for so much time indicates that their moot is probably not just information.
    - aerostable_slug 11mo ago
      See also: military jet engines. They can't replicate high end engines from Pratt & Whitney or GE even though I'm guessing Chinese intelligence services have a huge amount of relevant information. I don't know why that is.
      - scheme271 11mo ago
        It's probably hands on experience that's missing. Even with the all the technical details, often times there's practical details on using this machine or tiny tweaks that need to be made to get it working well.
    - arw0n 11mo ago
      The US finished developing a nuclear bomb in 1945, by 1949 the Soviet Union had their own. I agree that it is probably not the same, there are a lot more moving parts in modern chip design. In fact, I have no idea how close Chinese companies are to developing SotA chips. But I do see China being consistently underestimated in western media and think tanks, so my intuitive reaction would be to cut that timeline in half if it is what western experts believe to be plausible.
  - nomercy400 11mo ago
    You cannot lead if you only copy.
gusfoo 11mo ago
> And how far out is that? These guys have a 100% market share https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems at the 'extreme' end and, obviously, everyone else is trying but haven't really shown much promise. Here's a good background article on the topic: https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/03/12/the-race-is-on-to-build-the-worlds-most-complex-machine https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/03/12/...
- Nextgrid 11mo ago
  > everyone else is trying but haven't really shown much promise What was the incentive/funding for their attempts? In a non-national-security scenario it makes sense not to try too hard because you can just buy ASML's solution. With China it's a bit different, if they decide it's a matter of national security and pour Manhattan-project-levels of money/resources into it, they could make faster progress.
  - mtrovo 11mo ago
    Agree, especially given the track record of China outcompeting in other markets where they got blocked.
  - dragontamer 11mo ago
    Well yeah. No one is saying that China cannot do that. Just that the political calculus is that it's better for China to spend their resources on that, rather than building up troops and warships. Force Chinas growth to be more expensive. It has nothing to do with not believing China can do it, it's about slowing them down in a task we believe that they can do.
    - SiempreViernes 11mo ago
      > Just that the political calculus is that it's better for China to spend their resources on that, rather than building up troops and warships. Note that this calculus only makes sense if you invade China while they are busy with the EUV machines, otherwise they catch up technologically and then build all the scary military. Of course, the the calculus doesn't make sense at all, because the obvious order when you can't do both is you build enough military to feel safe first, then you try for the tech race.
general1465 11mo ago
According to this video (Asionometry - guy from Taiwan, hardly a PRC shill) Chinese EUV are now tested in Huawei factories and should come into production in 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIR3wfZ-EV0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIR3wfZ-EV0
- igravious 11mo ago
  “Huawei has 208,000 employees and operates in over 170 countries and regions, serving more than three billion people around the world.” https://www.huawei.com/en/media-center/company-facts https://www.huawei.com/en/media-center/company-facts “The company's commitment to innovation is highlighted by its substantial investment of 179.7 billion yuan ($24.77 billion) in research and development (R&D), accounting for 20.8 percent of its annual revenue. Its total R&D investment over the past decade has reached 1.249 trillion yuan ($172.21 billion).” https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-03-31/Huawei-reports-solid-2024-performance-driven-by-R-D-investment-1CcjrOXvBIc/p.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-03-31/Huawei-reports-solid-2... They have the incentive, the government backing, exist in a mature ecosystem of tech rivalled only by the US, … If any corp can do it, Huawei can
- KK7NIL 11mo ago
  I rewatched the whole video and did not find where he said that. Quite the opposite, he says Chinese EUV academic research is at 2005 levels and is rather unimpressive.

> that's the best they'll have until they can manufacture EUV machines domestically. And how far out is that?

by beej71 11mo ago

> that's the best they'll have until they can manufacture EUV machines domestically. And how far out is that?

stickfigure 11mo ago

So far only one company in the world has successfully accomplished it, so the answer could be "a very very long time".

KK7NIL 11mo ago

If you ask PRC shills, it's just around the corner because this one Chinese lab demonstrated a very small part of the system. And a surprising number of westerners fall for that crap. My guess is that it's at least 10 years away, but that could obviously change depending on what resources they're willing to commit. But even at that point they'll be 2 decades behind ASML's EUV tech so it probably won't be competitive.

buran77 11mo ago
> If you ask PRC shills GP must have been asking for the non-PRC shill opinion. > My guess is that it's at least 10 years away, That doesn't sound at all like a lot. China has a uniquely effective industrial espionage... industry, combined with a very thick geopolitical skin and disregard for international demands. This helps accelerate any process that others have already perfected. We'll start to see the real deal if/when China eventually catches up to the leaders in every field and the only way to pull ahead is to be entirely self propelled (you can't take advantage of someone else's draft when you're in front of the pack).
tracker1 11mo ago
I think you may underestimate the ability of China to abuse industrial espionage at scale.
- ruszki 11mo ago
  There are things which needs time, even with all or almost all the information at hand, just like with atomic bomb. I’m not sure whether this case similar to that, but that ASML in front for so much time indicates that their moot is probably not just information.
  - aerostable_slug 11mo ago
    See also: military jet engines. They can't replicate high end engines from Pratt & Whitney or GE even though I'm guessing Chinese intelligence services have a huge amount of relevant information. I don't know why that is.
    - scheme271 11mo ago
      It's probably hands on experience that's missing. Even with the all the technical details, often times there's practical details on using this machine or tiny tweaks that need to be made to get it working well.
  - arw0n 11mo ago
    The US finished developing a nuclear bomb in 1945, by 1949 the Soviet Union had their own. I agree that it is probably not the same, there are a lot more moving parts in modern chip design. In fact, I have no idea how close Chinese companies are to developing SotA chips. But I do see China being consistently underestimated in western media and think tanks, so my intuitive reaction would be to cut that timeline in half if it is what western experts believe to be plausible.
- nomercy400 11mo ago
  You cannot lead if you only copy.

gusfoo 11mo ago

> And how far out is that? These guys have a 100% market share https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems at the 'extreme' end and, obviously, everyone else is trying but haven't really shown much promise. Here's a good background article on the topic: https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/03/12/the-race-is-on-to-build-the-worlds-most-complex-machine https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/03/12/...

Nextgrid 11mo ago
> everyone else is trying but haven't really shown much promise What was the incentive/funding for their attempts? In a non-national-security scenario it makes sense not to try too hard because you can just buy ASML's solution. With China it's a bit different, if they decide it's a matter of national security and pour Manhattan-project-levels of money/resources into it, they could make faster progress.
- mtrovo 11mo ago
  Agree, especially given the track record of China outcompeting in other markets where they got blocked.
- dragontamer 11mo ago
  Well yeah. No one is saying that China cannot do that. Just that the political calculus is that it's better for China to spend their resources on that, rather than building up troops and warships. Force Chinas growth to be more expensive. It has nothing to do with not believing China can do it, it's about slowing them down in a task we believe that they can do.
  - SiempreViernes 11mo ago
    > Just that the political calculus is that it's better for China to spend their resources on that, rather than building up troops and warships. Note that this calculus only makes sense if you invade China while they are busy with the EUV machines, otherwise they catch up technologically and then build all the scary military. Of course, the the calculus doesn't make sense at all, because the obvious order when you can't do both is you build enough military to feel safe first, then you try for the tech race.

general1465 11mo ago

According to this video (Asionometry - guy from Taiwan, hardly a PRC shill) Chinese EUV are now tested in Huawei factories and should come into production in 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIR3wfZ-EV0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIR3wfZ-EV0

igravious 11mo ago
“Huawei has 208,000 employees and operates in over 170 countries and regions, serving more than three billion people around the world.” https://www.huawei.com/en/media-center/company-facts https://www.huawei.com/en/media-center/company-facts “The company's commitment to innovation is highlighted by its substantial investment of 179.7 billion yuan ($24.77 billion) in research and development (R&D), accounting for 20.8 percent of its annual revenue. Its total R&D investment over the past decade has reached 1.249 trillion yuan ($172.21 billion).” https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-03-31/Huawei-reports-solid-2024-performance-driven-by-R-D-investment-1CcjrOXvBIc/p.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-03-31/Huawei-reports-solid-2... They have the incentive, the government backing, exist in a mature ecosystem of tech rivalled only by the US, … If any corp can do it, Huawei can
KK7NIL 11mo ago
I rewatched the whole video and did not find where he said that. Quite the opposite, he says Chinese EUV academic research is at 2005 levels and is rather unimpressive.