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As a European I can agree with the US and China stuff. But a Russian Invasion? Seriously?

atoav 11mo ago
As another European: Yes? Invasion doesn't have to mean they plan to roll tanks all the way to Paris. Have you realized Russian agents blew up a train in Poland this week, after some weeks prior flying planes and drones into NATO airspace and disrupting air travel in Denmark with drones started from shadow fleet tankers. The grounds for further action are being tested as we speak. Invasion just means Russian soldiers enter Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Finnland. Countries parts of which Putin painted rightfully Russian territories in his speeches. I wouldn't bet a lot on that not happening, especially if the geopolitical situation deteriorates in favor of Putin.
- PeterStuer 11mo ago
  What would Russia hope to gain? How does this compare to alternative naratives? Assuming we both lack real insider infirmatiin, whixh reasonably is more credible?
  - mopsi 11mo ago
    > What would Russia hope to gain? Reversal of what Russia sees as a great injustice. The 2021 ultimatum[1] issued on the eve of the war can be summed up as a return to the Europe of 1989 with everything that it entails. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ultimatum_to_NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ultimatum_to_NATO
- dmix 11mo ago
  > Invasion just means Russian soldiers enter Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Finnland. So invasion means a full war with NATO?
  - trzy 11mo ago
    Given the pained debate here by Western Europeans over the semantics of “Europe” and Ukraine’s relationship therewith, it’s very unlikely NATO would act and that’s precisely what the Russians would bet on.
    - dmix 11mo ago
      Russia's best case scenario atm is they take more of eastern Ukraine and the west establishes a DMZ not far from the current frontlines. Pushing up anywhere close to Lviv/Polish border would be like winning the lottery given their current track record. These sorts of wars are very rare in the modern era. They gambled entirely because they faced an army they were 10x the size and they got embarrassed. There's near zero strategic logic in trying again vs NATO after they lost most of their fancy gear.
      - trzy 11mo ago
        Slowly then suddenly. Movements in the frontline are gradual until one side is exhausted and collapses. With Trump’s ludicrous “peace” plan, Ukraine would be barred access to US weapons, the size of its military restricted, and Russia would simply rearm and try again. And despite how things have fared in Ukraine thus far, the Baltics are a much softer target. If Ukraine does end up falling to the Russians, it’ll be used as a springboard by the Russians, potentially supported by Ukrainians disillusioned with the West’s betrayal. It would certainly not be the first time that Russia has annexed Ukraine and mobilized its people against Russia’s foes.
        deleted 11mo ago
        [deleted]
      - int_19h 11mo ago
        Ukraine has a severe manpower problem, while Russia hasn't even implemented full mobilization yet. They can keep grinding down the existing defenses until there are simply not enough Ukrainians in uniform left to hold the tide, and then things would break down pretty quickly in the absence of external support. They would still have to contend with an insurgency on occupied territory, but that is something Russia has considerable experience with, including Ukraine in the past (mopping up the remaining nationalist resistance after WW2).
dxdm 11mo ago
GP is talking about the invasion of Ukraine, taking place just beyond the EU eastern border, and very much shaking up the European security situation, and the EU and its member states are visibly having to "deal with it", diplomatically, economically and in terms of their practical defense postures. That's what they meant with "at the border", and not a literal invasion of the EU. (Edited for a less confrontational beginning of the first sentence.)
- PeterStuer 11mo ago
  [flagged]
  - HappyPanacea 11mo ago
    Russia failed to create a convincing casus belli to the rest of the world and seen as the indisputable aggressor pretty much everywhere.
  - usea 11mo ago
    Russia.
  - dxdm 11mo ago
    > Problem is. As a European, who created this situation? Russia? Or the US? I'm not going to argue with you about how Russia was forced to invade Ukraine and commit atrocities there or whatever you're hinting at, my dear fellow European. Also, stop shifting the discussion and leave your apologetic narratives where they belong.
  - immibis 11mo ago
    Reversal: The US created it by not nuking Russia off the face of the planet decades ago.
  - dragonwriter 11mo ago
    > As a European, who created this situation? Russia? Russia. After the US completely rolled over for their demands not to provide NATO membership action plans to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008, because, as Russia claimed, that would be destabilizing. Which Russia followed immediately with an invasion of Georgia in 2008. Then, as soon as Ukraine threw off the Russian-aligned government that had taken power while that was going on, Ukraine in 2014, taking Crimea and invading parts of Eastern Ukraine with both Russian reular forces and Russia-paid mercenaries, which is what turned Ukraine back to seeking NATO membership.
dmix 11mo ago
As poor of a state that is Europe's various armies, I'd be very surprised if EU couldn't take on Russia even without the US (who FWIW recently reiterated their commitment to the defense of Europe). Russia's advanced SAMs, radars, and Navy have seriously deteriorated. Their main capability left is submarines and mass Shahed drones whose range can't reach much of Europe. If Russia's jets can't operate over Ukraine they won't do much in Europe except self-defense of their own homeland. China on the other hand is a very very serious opponent...
- tokai 11mo ago
  Russia's advanced SAMs and radars are getting clapped by one of the poorest nations in Europe. We're at almost four years of full scale war and the worlds no. 2 military has not been able to get air superiority over a small airforce of cold war left overs. Just the airforces of the Nordic countries alone would run rings around the russian airforce and their air defence.
  - deleted 11mo ago
    [deleted]
pessimizer 11mo ago
[flagged]
- dragonwriter 11mo ago
  > Russia didn't even want to be in Ukraine at all Then it should have chosen not to invade and occupy large parts of Ukraine in 2014. And then escalate with an even bigger invasion in 2022. Not launching a war of aggression is, like, the easiest thing in the world to do.
  - selivanovp 11mo ago
    [flagged]
    - immibis 11mo ago
      It crossed my mind that Morocco and Algeria shouldn't have organized a coup in New York City in 2025. Fortunately, none of these things happened.
    - dxdm 11mo ago
      "I didn't want to hurt you, baby, but what can I do? You divorced me, you looked at other men. Your friends poisoned your mind against me. What can a man do in this situation? You see how my hands are tied, and now your hands are tied. Has it crossed your mind to not provoke me by trying to defend yourself?" Disgusting.
- sjsdaiuasgdia 11mo ago
  > The Ukrainians can always jut bail out of this fight Putin can end the war immediately whenever he wants.
- petcat 11mo ago
  > instead of the slow, safe, low-casualty taking of territory I don't know what is considered "low-casualty" for Russia, but the last reports I saw they were approaching 250,000 dead soldiers in Ukraine since 2022. That is just an astronomical number. USA only had 60,000 killed in Vietnam and that is considered a national catastrophe.
polski-g 11mo ago
Yeah it's all very dumb. The rest of Europe is protected by no less then three state nuclear triads. Ukraine was not.

atoav 11mo ago

As another European: Yes? Invasion doesn't have to mean they plan to roll tanks all the way to Paris. Have you realized Russian agents blew up a train in Poland this week, after some weeks prior flying planes and drones into NATO airspace and disrupting air travel in Denmark with drones started from shadow fleet tankers. The grounds for further action are being tested as we speak. Invasion just means Russian soldiers enter Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Finnland. Countries parts of which Putin painted rightfully Russian territories in his speeches. I wouldn't bet a lot on that not happening, especially if the geopolitical situation deteriorates in favor of Putin.

PeterStuer 11mo ago
What would Russia hope to gain? How does this compare to alternative naratives? Assuming we both lack real insider infirmatiin, whixh reasonably is more credible?
- mopsi 11mo ago
  > What would Russia hope to gain? Reversal of what Russia sees as a great injustice. The 2021 ultimatum[1] issued on the eve of the war can be summed up as a return to the Europe of 1989 with everything that it entails. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ultimatum_to_NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ultimatum_to_NATO
dmix 11mo ago
> Invasion just means Russian soldiers enter Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Finnland. So invasion means a full war with NATO?
- trzy 11mo ago
  Given the pained debate here by Western Europeans over the semantics of “Europe” and Ukraine’s relationship therewith, it’s very unlikely NATO would act and that’s precisely what the Russians would bet on.
  - dmix 11mo ago
    Russia's best case scenario atm is they take more of eastern Ukraine and the west establishes a DMZ not far from the current frontlines. Pushing up anywhere close to Lviv/Polish border would be like winning the lottery given their current track record. These sorts of wars are very rare in the modern era. They gambled entirely because they faced an army they were 10x the size and they got embarrassed. There's near zero strategic logic in trying again vs NATO after they lost most of their fancy gear.
    - trzy 11mo ago
      Slowly then suddenly. Movements in the frontline are gradual until one side is exhausted and collapses. With Trump’s ludicrous “peace” plan, Ukraine would be barred access to US weapons, the size of its military restricted, and Russia would simply rearm and try again. And despite how things have fared in Ukraine thus far, the Baltics are a much softer target. If Ukraine does end up falling to the Russians, it’ll be used as a springboard by the Russians, potentially supported by Ukrainians disillusioned with the West’s betrayal. It would certainly not be the first time that Russia has annexed Ukraine and mobilized its people against Russia’s foes.
      - deleted 11mo ago
        [deleted]
    - int_19h 11mo ago
      Ukraine has a severe manpower problem, while Russia hasn't even implemented full mobilization yet. They can keep grinding down the existing defenses until there are simply not enough Ukrainians in uniform left to hold the tide, and then things would break down pretty quickly in the absence of external support. They would still have to contend with an insurgency on occupied territory, but that is something Russia has considerable experience with, including Ukraine in the past (mopping up the remaining nationalist resistance after WW2).

dxdm 11mo ago

GP is talking about the invasion of Ukraine, taking place just beyond the EU eastern border, and very much shaking up the European security situation, and the EU and its member states are visibly having to "deal with it", diplomatically, economically and in terms of their practical defense postures. That's what they meant with "at the border", and not a literal invasion of the EU. (Edited for a less confrontational beginning of the first sentence.)

PeterStuer 11mo ago
[flagged]
- HappyPanacea 11mo ago
  Russia failed to create a convincing casus belli to the rest of the world and seen as the indisputable aggressor pretty much everywhere.
- usea 11mo ago
  Russia.
- dxdm 11mo ago
  > Problem is. As a European, who created this situation? Russia? Or the US? I'm not going to argue with you about how Russia was forced to invade Ukraine and commit atrocities there or whatever you're hinting at, my dear fellow European. Also, stop shifting the discussion and leave your apologetic narratives where they belong.
- immibis 11mo ago
  Reversal: The US created it by not nuking Russia off the face of the planet decades ago.
- dragonwriter 11mo ago
  > As a European, who created this situation? Russia? Russia. After the US completely rolled over for their demands not to provide NATO membership action plans to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008, because, as Russia claimed, that would be destabilizing. Which Russia followed immediately with an invasion of Georgia in 2008. Then, as soon as Ukraine threw off the Russian-aligned government that had taken power while that was going on, Ukraine in 2014, taking Crimea and invading parts of Eastern Ukraine with both Russian reular forces and Russia-paid mercenaries, which is what turned Ukraine back to seeking NATO membership.

dmix 11mo ago

As poor of a state that is Europe's various armies, I'd be very surprised if EU couldn't take on Russia even without the US (who FWIW recently reiterated their commitment to the defense of Europe). Russia's advanced SAMs, radars, and Navy have seriously deteriorated. Their main capability left is submarines and mass Shahed drones whose range can't reach much of Europe. If Russia's jets can't operate over Ukraine they won't do much in Europe except self-defense of their own homeland. China on the other hand is a very very serious opponent...

tokai 11mo ago
Russia's advanced SAMs and radars are getting clapped by one of the poorest nations in Europe. We're at almost four years of full scale war and the worlds no. 2 military has not been able to get air superiority over a small airforce of cold war left overs. Just the airforces of the Nordic countries alone would run rings around the russian airforce and their air defence.
- deleted 11mo ago
  [deleted]

pessimizer 11mo ago

[flagged]

dragonwriter 11mo ago
> Russia didn't even want to be in Ukraine at all Then it should have chosen not to invade and occupy large parts of Ukraine in 2014. And then escalate with an even bigger invasion in 2022. Not launching a war of aggression is, like, the easiest thing in the world to do.
- selivanovp 11mo ago
  [flagged]
  - immibis 11mo ago
    It crossed my mind that Morocco and Algeria shouldn't have organized a coup in New York City in 2025. Fortunately, none of these things happened.
  - dxdm 11mo ago
    "I didn't want to hurt you, baby, but what can I do? You divorced me, you looked at other men. Your friends poisoned your mind against me. What can a man do in this situation? You see how my hands are tied, and now your hands are tied. Has it crossed your mind to not provoke me by trying to defend yourself?" Disgusting.
sjsdaiuasgdia 11mo ago
> The Ukrainians can always jut bail out of this fight Putin can end the war immediately whenever he wants.
petcat 11mo ago
> instead of the slow, safe, low-casualty taking of territory I don't know what is considered "low-casualty" for Russia, but the last reports I saw they were approaching 250,000 dead soldiers in Ukraine since 2022. That is just an astronomical number. USA only had 60,000 killed in Vietnam and that is considered a national catastrophe.

polski-g 11mo ago

Yeah it's all very dumb. The rest of Europe is protected by no less then three state nuclear triads. Ukraine was not.