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Trying to compete against Falcon 9 is like entering the TV market against TCL. At best, you won't lose your shirt trying and can quit gracefully. Several other
by Zigurd 1y ago
Trying to compete against Falcon 9 is like entering the TV market against TCL. At best, you won't lose your shirt trying and can quit gracefully. Several other rockets startups think they do want to try. Let them.
Being a better Falcon Heavy is a much more realistic goal. Just having a larger payload fairing is enough to win some business.
I'm not sure what Starship is designed for. But I don't think it's worth even comparing until it can demonstrate deploying a payload other than a flat pack satellite, in orbit refueling, recovering both stages and turning the rocket around fast enough that you don't have to build 17 Starships to refuel one in orbit. Before these milestones are reached, the cost-effectiveness is very theoretical.
The big difference is that one of these rockets flew a successful mission, and the other one might be years away from key milestones.
- jmyeet 1y agoYou have no choice. It’s the largest and most profitable sector of your market. If you don’t compete in it, SpaceX can subsidize Falcon Heavy launches with their Falcon 9 launches to put you out of business. I’m honestly not sure what Starship is designed for either. Despite all the hype, it might bankrupt SpaceX. Or seems like the poster child for second system syndrome.
- Zigurd 1y agoI strongly suspect they already have been pricing Falcon Heavy launches below cost, with the exception of national security launches. IIRC spaceX claims that falcon heavy has a lower cost per kilogram to orbit than Falcon 9. I also suspect that they are burning capital everywhere and their margins are extremely thin. The charitable assessment of that is that they are being like Amazon and they know what they are doing. A less charitable assessment is that Amazon could simply turn a pricing knob and become profitable. There is no knob at SpaceX. They need to make a very risky rocket project work for things to work in general. Not that that's a pattern in Elon's businesses or anything.
- Zigurd 1y ago"Or seems like the poster child for second system syndrome." is spot on. Finding that they could actually land a Falcon 9 is exactly the serendipitous kind of win that leads to second system syndrome. There's a bit of Cybertruck-ism in the mix, too.
- NetMageSCW 1y agoYour expectations are wrong, and we know that because being selected for HLS included letting NASA go over their books and determining the odds of success financial. Starlink is making money hand over fist.
- Zigurd 1y agoChosen by an administration known for careful due diligence amirite?