4 ms·

What is the impact of the “Boriswave” immigration policy on the economy, I wonder?

by shrubble 11mo ago

echelon_musk 11mo ago
One thing that frustrated me around this time was that the UK's "stop the boats" campaign (although launched under Sunak) was just a lazy clone of an anti-immigration slogan first launched in Five Eyes partner Australia back in ~2013. At the time I remember seeing a meme of Captain Cook's ship off the coast of Australia with 'Stop the Boats' stamped beneath it to highlight the hypocrisy.
- nailer 11mo ago
  [flagged]
  - IAmBroom 11mo ago
    Anything but fair. Eggregiously racist, more like.
    - nailer 11mo ago
      There’s a reply to you in the comment above.
  - hackable_sand 11mo ago
    You are going to need to edit your comment again.
Havoc 11mo ago
Doubt it has a big impact. Immigrants from richer western nations are net contributors to budget while those from poor countries are on average a drain. Uk locals land somewhere in between. Brexit lead to more immigrants from poor countries but I doubt it moves the needle overall
- graemep 11mo ago
  So an unskilled worker from the EU contributes more to the economy than an African doctor? The big change has been that it has shifted the balance from unskilled to skilled immigration. Generally you need money or skills to get a UK residence visa. Brexit removed a huge exemption to that for people from the EU.
  - Havoc 11mo ago
    > So an unskilled worker from the EU contributes more to the economy than an African doctor? Is that really what you got from my post? A brain dead apples and orange comparison? My comment was in aggregate by origin regardless of profession or skill…
    - s1mplicissimus 11mo ago
      I'm not GP, but I took their comment as a provocative way of questioning your (unsourced) general claim "Immigrants from richer western nations are net contributors to budget while those from poor countries are on average a drain. Uk locals land somewhere in between."
    - graemep 11mo ago
      > My comment was in aggregate by origin regardless of profession or skill It makes no sense to compare the aggregates in countries of origin rather than in the immigrant populations. Non EU immigrants tended to be higher skilled or well off because that is the only way they could get a visa. Unskilled immigrants could come in freely if they were from the EU and many did. Therefore your claim that the EU immigrants contributed more to the economy than the non-EU immigrants who replaced them is false if you assume skilled immigrants make a grater contribution.
      - Havoc 11mo ago
        > Therefore your claim that the EU immigrants contributed more to the economy than the non-EU immigrants I suggest looking at the numbers instead of guessing (incorrectly). I’ll save you some time - it’s on page 4. see also page 57 - comparison to other studies finding the same. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5bfd2209e5274a0fce0e285f/The_Fiscal_Impact_of_Immigration_on_the_UK.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5bfd2209e5274...
erikgahner 11mo ago
Interesting to see far-right terminology being used unironically at HN.
- pjc50 11mo ago
  Can't escape it anywhere, sadly.
epicureanideal 11mo ago
And especially importantly, on per capita GDP. Immigration would almost certainly cause GDP to go up, but the per capita effects are important, especially on the original population. (Qualifier added because if the original population experienced an increase in per capita median GDP they might consider it net positive even if the recent arrivals had a lower than median per capita income, who might also be satisfied if that’s still 3x what they were earning elsewhere.)
- HPsquared 11mo ago
  PPP per capita is what matters for QoL. This took a massive hit in 2008 and took years to recover, and has been pretty flat since 2019. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=GB https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locat...
  - epicureanideal 11mo ago
    I agree, directionally. To be even more precise we probably want an even better metric, but that’s closer yeah. By a better metric I mean something that would even more accurately capture quality of life, healthcare outcomes, social ties, productivity within the home or family that isn’t tied to an income from an employer, etc.
    - pjc50 11mo ago
      You can't solve the immigration "debate" with metrics.
- graemep 11mo ago
  Also the effects of skilled vs unskilled immigration. One thing from the Brexit debate that people forget is that both Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage said they favour allowing skilled immigration.
abm53 11mo ago
I’m trying to figure out if you’re asking a leading question and if so, in which direction…
- shrubble 11mo ago
  Since I live in the USA it seems reasonable to ask for others’ views.
webdevver 11mo ago
i now buy deliveroo slop basically every day, and every day the delivery driver is a barely literate global south immigrant. in other words, its a huge positive impact. unfortunately for the delivery driver, well, hes basically an indentured servant... i have no idea how these guys survive. especially now in 0 degree weather. i recently started tipping them in the hopes that they don't dekulakize me in some future bolshevik overhaul (that they would be entirely justified to!)

What is the impact of the “Boriswave” immigration policy on the economy, I wonder?

One thing that frustrated me around this time was that the UK's "stop the boats" campaign (although launched under Sunak) was just a lazy clone of an anti-immigration slogan first launched in Five Eyes partner Australia back in ~2013. At the time I remember seeing a meme of Captain Cook's ship off the coast of Australia with 'Stop the Boats' stamped beneath it to highlight the hypocrisy.

nailer 11mo ago
[flagged]
- IAmBroom 11mo ago
  Anything but fair. Eggregiously racist, more like.
  - nailer 11mo ago
    There’s a reply to you in the comment above.
- hackable_sand 11mo ago
  You are going to need to edit your comment again.

Havoc 11mo ago

Doubt it has a big impact. Immigrants from richer western nations are net contributors to budget while those from poor countries are on average a drain. Uk locals land somewhere in between. Brexit lead to more immigrants from poor countries but I doubt it moves the needle overall

graemep 11mo ago
So an unskilled worker from the EU contributes more to the economy than an African doctor? The big change has been that it has shifted the balance from unskilled to skilled immigration. Generally you need money or skills to get a UK residence visa. Brexit removed a huge exemption to that for people from the EU.
- Havoc 11mo ago
  > So an unskilled worker from the EU contributes more to the economy than an African doctor? Is that really what you got from my post? A brain dead apples and orange comparison? My comment was in aggregate by origin regardless of profession or skill…
  - s1mplicissimus 11mo ago
    I'm not GP, but I took their comment as a provocative way of questioning your (unsourced) general claim "Immigrants from richer western nations are net contributors to budget while those from poor countries are on average a drain. Uk locals land somewhere in between."
  - graemep 11mo ago
    > My comment was in aggregate by origin regardless of profession or skill It makes no sense to compare the aggregates in countries of origin rather than in the immigrant populations. Non EU immigrants tended to be higher skilled or well off because that is the only way they could get a visa. Unskilled immigrants could come in freely if they were from the EU and many did. Therefore your claim that the EU immigrants contributed more to the economy than the non-EU immigrants who replaced them is false if you assume skilled immigrants make a grater contribution.
    - Havoc 11mo ago
      > Therefore your claim that the EU immigrants contributed more to the economy than the non-EU immigrants I suggest looking at the numbers instead of guessing (incorrectly). I’ll save you some time - it’s on page 4. see also page 57 - comparison to other studies finding the same. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5bfd2209e5274a0fce0e285f/The_Fiscal_Impact_of_Immigration_on_the_UK.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5bfd2209e5274...

erikgahner 11mo ago

Interesting to see far-right terminology being used unironically at HN.

pjc50 11mo ago
Can't escape it anywhere, sadly.

epicureanideal 11mo ago

And especially importantly, on per capita GDP. Immigration would almost certainly cause GDP to go up, but the per capita effects are important, especially on the original population. (Qualifier added because if the original population experienced an increase in per capita median GDP they might consider it net positive even if the recent arrivals had a lower than median per capita income, who might also be satisfied if that’s still 3x what they were earning elsewhere.)

HPsquared 11mo ago
PPP per capita is what matters for QoL. This took a massive hit in 2008 and took years to recover, and has been pretty flat since 2019. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=GB https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locat...
- epicureanideal 11mo ago
  I agree, directionally. To be even more precise we probably want an even better metric, but that’s closer yeah. By a better metric I mean something that would even more accurately capture quality of life, healthcare outcomes, social ties, productivity within the home or family that isn’t tied to an income from an employer, etc.
  - pjc50 11mo ago
    You can't solve the immigration "debate" with metrics.
graemep 11mo ago
Also the effects of skilled vs unskilled immigration. One thing from the Brexit debate that people forget is that both Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage said they favour allowing skilled immigration.

abm53 11mo ago

I’m trying to figure out if you’re asking a leading question and if so, in which direction…

shrubble 11mo ago
Since I live in the USA it seems reasonable to ask for others’ views.

webdevver 11mo ago

i now buy deliveroo slop basically every day, and every day the delivery driver is a barely literate global south immigrant. in other words, its a huge positive impact. unfortunately for the delivery driver, well, hes basically an indentured servant... i have no idea how these guys survive. especially now in 0 degree weather. i recently started tipping them in the hopes that they don't dekulakize me in some future bolshevik overhaul (that they would be entirely justified to!)