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Feel like this is way too optimistic. The Chinese strategy isn’t to actually put boots on the ground - it’s to make invasion inevitable by having a massive mism

Feel like this is way too optimistic. The Chinese strategy isn’t to actually put boots on the ground - it’s to make invasion inevitable by having a massive mismatch in power. Then they present a fait accompli to the American President, making grandiose promises in exchange for taking Taiwan with minimal loss of life. If the American President is a transactional person who can be bought cheap, it’ll work. They’ve managed to address a lot of their disadvantages as well - Energy is a lot less oil dependent as they’ve transitioned to solar, wind and nuclear, while also electrifying cars and buses. - Of course oil is important, which is why they have a 2 billion barrel reserve. That could last them 6 months with zero imports. - But in practice they have reduced their reliance on oil imports through the straits of Malacca because they can get oil through Pakistan (Gwadar). - Exposing corruption is something Xi is very comfortable with. He’s purged the PLA leadership multiple times, even men he’s appointed personally. Certainly a chunk of the military budget is siphoned away, but the spending is so high and their manufacturing so solid that they have enough of everything they need (missiles, transport ships, destroyers, submarines, fighter planes). - Drones have changed the game, but it is unclear that Taiwan is prioritising them in the quantities they need. Ukraine needs thousands of drones per day of different kinds. They’re going all in on drone innovation and manufacturing and the Taiwanese aren’t (although they could be keeping it secret). They waste money on prestige kit like fighter jets that will never be allowed to leave their airfields. If Taiwan has 50k unjammable, unhackable drones covering every approach to the island, both air and underwater, with enough personnel to manage them all, distributed across the island, then maybe they have a hope. But my sense is that when America abandons them in exchange for a few soybean sales, they’ll struggle to survive on their own.

AtlasBarfed 11mo ago
In a perfect world of solar/wind, oil is still really necessary, especially to a manufacturing economy (plastics/materials/lubrication), and most importantly: fertilizer. Sure, China's strategic reserve lasts 6 months. Then ... starvation. South Korea, Japan, INDIA, and Southeast Asia will probably view China's assault on Taiwan as imperialism, The US is not going to sell out TSMC production for soybeans. TSMC production loss alone would tank the US economy into a depression for probably 5-10 years. And I always wonder if an "illegal" invasion happens if the US can cancel its debt to China.... Which I guess is "only" 750-900 billion, but it's still something that can probably be done. Finally, wars are financed by debt. If China gets international sanctions from an invasion... who pays for it? Russia can't. India won't. China is a bigger house of financial cards than the US is if you believe some of the doom. Never underestimate the incompetence of large organizations, but drone manufacture on that scale is not a big lift compared to say, tanks and fighter jet design and manufacturing. 50,000 drones fit in how many shipping containers? 20? And yes, drones are now unhackable with fiber optic line leads, certainly for defense of beach assaults. Naval drones are a different story. China is always some form of warlord confederation. Launching a foolish invasion that fails quickly invites a total collapse of the Beijing power center of the CCP. Starvation from a blockade/sanctions ... invites a total collapse of the CCP. I would argue that Russia's population was tolerant of the Ukraine invasion because the Russian government was in a quid pro quo with the population: we keep the lights on, the oil cheap, and decent enough economy, and you let Putin do what he does. The CCP does not have the same quid-pro-quo with the Chinese people AFAIK, and has a lot less leeway with them with the COVID lockdowns and general dislike of the CCP. A failed invasion and then catastrophic economic sanctions could topple the CCP very very very quickly.
- pjjpo 11mo ago
  Just to confirm, by soybeans you mean soybean exports to China?
  - AtlasBarfed 11mo ago
    Uh yes, we aren't selling out Taiwan and TSMC supply which enables all of our high-end tech companies for soybean exports to China. I mean, I guess in the current administration of lunacy, it is possible. I suppose I am assuming far too much rationalism.

AtlasBarfed 11mo ago

In a perfect world of solar/wind, oil is still really necessary, especially to a manufacturing economy (plastics/materials/lubrication), and most importantly: fertilizer. Sure, China's strategic reserve lasts 6 months. Then ... starvation. South Korea, Japan, INDIA, and Southeast Asia will probably view China's assault on Taiwan as imperialism, The US is not going to sell out TSMC production for soybeans. TSMC production loss alone would tank the US economy into a depression for probably 5-10 years. And I always wonder if an "illegal" invasion happens if the US can cancel its debt to China.... Which I guess is "only" 750-900 billion, but it's still something that can probably be done. Finally, wars are financed by debt. If China gets international sanctions from an invasion... who pays for it? Russia can't. India won't. China is a bigger house of financial cards than the US is if you believe some of the doom. Never underestimate the incompetence of large organizations, but drone manufacture on that scale is not a big lift compared to say, tanks and fighter jet design and manufacturing. 50,000 drones fit in how many shipping containers? 20? And yes, drones are now unhackable with fiber optic line leads, certainly for defense of beach assaults. Naval drones are a different story. China is always some form of warlord confederation. Launching a foolish invasion that fails quickly invites a total collapse of the Beijing power center of the CCP. Starvation from a blockade/sanctions ... invites a total collapse of the CCP. I would argue that Russia's population was tolerant of the Ukraine invasion because the Russian government was in a quid pro quo with the population: we keep the lights on, the oil cheap, and decent enough economy, and you let Putin do what he does. The CCP does not have the same quid-pro-quo with the Chinese people AFAIK, and has a lot less leeway with them with the COVID lockdowns and general dislike of the CCP. A failed invasion and then catastrophic economic sanctions could topple the CCP very very very quickly.

pjjpo 11mo ago
Just to confirm, by soybeans you mean soybean exports to China?
- AtlasBarfed 11mo ago
  Uh yes, we aren't selling out Taiwan and TSMC supply which enables all of our high-end tech companies for soybean exports to China. I mean, I guess in the current administration of lunacy, it is possible. I suppose I am assuming far too much rationalism.