4 ms·

I caution against using whatever the Russian army and, especially, navy is going through as a guideline on what can or cannot happen to a competent, well equipp

by krige 11mo ago

I caution against using whatever the Russian army and, especially, navy is going through as a guideline on what can or cannot happen to a competent, well equipped force. Putting it bluntly, their equipment is not only subpar, it is also poorly mantained and crewed by people who were not properly trained for its operation, and commanded by leaders who were almost never promoted for their competence.

petesergeant 11mo ago
> or cannot happen to a competent, well equipped force ... their equipment is not only subpar, it is also poorly mantained and crewed by people who were not properly trained for its operation, and commanded by leaders who were almost never promoted for their competence. I think it's far from clear that this isn't the case for the PLA -- nobody has any idea because they haven't seen any combat other than harassing fishermen or hitting Indians with sticks since they had to do a face-saving retreat from 'nam in the late 70s. It's possible they've got Western-style NCOs and their rockets aren't full of water, but, who knows? They probably don't even know themselves, and if you're a Chinese general who's gotten fat off their position, are you really going to sound the alarm? All this is of course also true of Japan and Taiwan, although one would hope that their allies have managed to iron out the kinks there. EDIT: It's also entirely unclear how well any of these populations is going to deal with troops getting shot, which is important.
- krige 11mo ago
  Yes, it is possible that China shares many of the same weaknesses - for instance, a few years back a video circulated from their infantry training that showed their rifles keyholing targets at extremely close range [0], suggesting inadequate equipment, but it would be dangerous to assume this is globally true for them without more evidence. Evidence, which, given China's keenness on saving face at all cost, we are unlikely to get until the conflict actually starts. [0] https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/wev84u/chinese_tactical_keyholing_of_their_new_rifle/ https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/wev84u/...
  - petesergeant 11mo ago
    r/NCD is the only thing I miss about Reddit

by krige 11mo ago

petesergeant 11mo ago

> or cannot happen to a competent, well equipped force ... their equipment is not only subpar, it is also poorly mantained and crewed by people who were not properly trained for its operation, and commanded by leaders who were almost never promoted for their competence. I think it's far from clear that this isn't the case for the PLA -- nobody has any idea because they haven't seen any combat other than harassing fishermen or hitting Indians with sticks since they had to do a face-saving retreat from 'nam in the late 70s. It's possible they've got Western-style NCOs and their rockets aren't full of water, but, who knows? They probably don't even know themselves, and if you're a Chinese general who's gotten fat off their position, are you really going to sound the alarm? All this is of course also true of Japan and Taiwan, although one would hope that their allies have managed to iron out the kinks there. EDIT: It's also entirely unclear how well any of these populations is going to deal with troops getting shot, which is important.

krige 11mo ago
Yes, it is possible that China shares many of the same weaknesses - for instance, a few years back a video circulated from their infantry training that showed their rifles keyholing targets at extremely close range [0], suggesting inadequate equipment, but it would be dangerous to assume this is globally true for them without more evidence. Evidence, which, given China's keenness on saving face at all cost, we are unlikely to get until the conflict actually starts. [0] https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/wev84u/chinese_tactical_keyholing_of_their_new_rifle/ https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/wev84u/...
- petesergeant 11mo ago
  r/NCD is the only thing I miss about Reddit