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The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. Same situation with internet, we saw a b

The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. Same situation with internet, we saw a bubble but ultimately those that changed their business around it monopolized various industries where they were slow to react. Some jobs will be replaced outright but most will use AI tools and we might see reduced wages/positions available for a very long time coupled with economic downturn.

shkkmo 11mo ago
> Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. Unless they let their skills atrophy by offloading them to AI. The things they can do will be commodified and low value. I suspect there will be demand for those who instead chose to hone their skills.
- ronsor 11mo ago
  I think if you have that problem, then you're not using AI as a tool; AI is using you. Using AI as a tool doesn't mean having it do everything; it means you have the skill and knowledge to know where and how you can use it.
  - rileymichael 11mo ago
    > it means you have the skill and knowledge to ... sure, but in the real world the overwhelming majority of people loudly proclaiming the benefits of AI don't actually have the skill or knowledge (or discipline) to do so / judge its correctness. it's peak dunning-kruger
- stego-tech 11mo ago
  There always has been, thus far. When I was attending CC for an A+ class in High School, my lab partner was a woman in her early 40s who pulled down a staggering amount of money doing COBOL programming. I learned first hand that for every advancement in technology, there will always be folks who (rightly or wrongly) find no value proposition in upgrading needlessly. AI as it presently stands is very much one of those things where in the immediate, sure, there’s money to be made jumping on the bandwagon. Even I keep tinkering with it in some capacity from an IT POV, and it has some legitimate use cases that even surprise me sometimes. However, I aim to build a career like the COBOL programmer did: staying technically sharp as the world abstracts away, because someone, somewhere, will eventually need help digging out of a hole that upgrades or automation got them into. And at that point, you can bill for the first class airfare, the five-star hotel, and four-figures a day to save their ass.
AuthAuth 11mo ago
AI tools will get easier and easier to use. There will be no skill level required to use them effectively.
- frde_me 11mo ago
  Has this been true for any technology, ever? In that the curve of skill to output quality will be completely flat? I would be suspicious of this claim.
  - mgrandl 11mo ago
    Does everything always need precedence?
    - tines 11mo ago
      Thank you. AI is different from tools we've seen before. There won't always be a precedent to refer to.
    - zeroonetwothree 11mo ago
      I think you mean precedents but in any case the precedent is that often a new tech is heralded with “this time is different! Ignore the precedents” and yet so far that has been wrong every time. One day the sun won’t rise in the morning but it’s not something I’m going to plan on happening in my lifetime.
      - mgrandl 11mo ago
        Jep, sorry not an native english speaker. It’s been wrong every time, except for the times it wasn’t. Nobody remembers those though. Something something confirmation bias.
  - nosianu 11mo ago
    > Has this been true for any technology, ever? Yes? Try abacus, slide rules or mechanical calculating machines vs electronic calculators. Or ancient vs modern computers and software. They didn't even have "end-users" like we understand them now, every computer user was a specialist. Programming. Writing. Quill vs. ballpen, but also alphabets vs what you had to write before. Photography, more than one big jump in usability. Film cameras, projectors/screens. Transportation: From navigation to piloting aircraft or cars. Originally you had to be a part-time mechanic. Many advanced (i.e. more complex than e.g. a hammer) tools in manufacturing or at home.
IncandescentGas 11mo ago
Identifying the 1% of ai use cases that are useful and refusing to have your attention stolen by the 99% that is mild melting garbage will be the key ai skill for the ai future
- Dilettante_ 11mo ago
  So same as with the internet
  - stego-tech 11mo ago
    This is both the sickest burn and truest statement I’ve read today. Here, have a (digital) shortbread cookie: o
wslh 11mo ago
Using AI as a tool is similar to using a search engine and specific sites in the past. People are using it naturally (for what it works)
righthand 11mo ago
Have you considered the inverse? Those who use AI as tool today will be replaced by those that aren't tomorrow.
- darkmarmot 11mo ago
  This is what I'm seeing currently at work. YMMV.
- angst_ridden 11mo ago
  Those who know how to fix the messes made by AI today will replace those who don't tomorrow.
bigstrat2003 11mo ago
> The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. That's not a robust prediction. Many people who don't use AI today simply don't do so because they've tried it, and found it subtracts value. Those people will not be replaced tomorrow, they will merely reevaluate the tool and start using it if it has started to add value.
- criley2 11mo ago
  If jobs were based on self-perceived value addition there would never be a layoff ever Your executive team is going to "remove" non-AI folks regardless of their claims about efficiency. Just like they forced you to return to office while ignoring the exact same efficiency claims. They had realestate to protect. Now they have AI to protect.
  - xoac 11mo ago
    I upvoted both posts
  - moron4hire 11mo ago
    "Now they have AI to protect," you're ultimately talking about corporate leadership being susceptible to the sunk cost fallacy here. But AI investment is a particularly easy sunk cost to get out of compared to real estate. Real estate has lease obligations and moving costs; it will cost you a lot more in the short term to get rid of your real estate. AI you could just stop using and immediately see cost reduction.
    - ffsm8 11mo ago
      There are trillions invested innit at this point. 50 year lease write off would be peanuts compared to what's been invested with the expectation of payouts
    - criley2 11mo ago
      The entire American tech industry will implode in a bubble pop if AI doesn't pan out. I argue that real estate was a smaller problem than this AI bubble behemoth they've created. And now everyones retirement is wrapped up in it.
risyachka 11mo ago
Everyone uses or will use ai, there is no learning curve so this is not an advantage
- eloisant 11mo ago
  Yes there is, for coding for example you need to learn how to use the tools efficiently otherwise you'll get garbage... And end up either discarding everything and claiming AI is crap, or push it to prod and have to deal with the garbage code in prod.
  - risyachka 11mo ago
    Just open codex or claude code, add md file with basic instructions and tell it what you want. there is no "tooling" or "workflows" around it. "swarm of agents" is not a thing. And if your agent is running in background for hours then you are doing something wrong and wasting time.
- swat535 11mo ago
  I think a better prediction would be that the current (or future?) generation Software Engineers will migrate to building and developing AI systems, basically working for OpenAI, Anthropic, etc. The future of computing could very well be AI (and related fields) + Robotics + Hardware .. instead of Software + Hardware.
iLoveOncall 11mo ago
> The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. And I make the inverse prediction. I work for a FAANG and I see it, from juniors to senior engineers, the one who use AI generate absolute slop that is unreadable, unmaintainable, and is definitely going to break. They are making themselves not just redundant, but an actual danger to the company.

shkkmo 11mo ago

> Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. Unless they let their skills atrophy by offloading them to AI. The things they can do will be commodified and low value. I suspect there will be demand for those who instead chose to hone their skills.

ronsor 11mo ago
I think if you have that problem, then you're not using AI as a tool; AI is using you. Using AI as a tool doesn't mean having it do everything; it means you have the skill and knowledge to know where and how you can use it.
- rileymichael 11mo ago
  > it means you have the skill and knowledge to ... sure, but in the real world the overwhelming majority of people loudly proclaiming the benefits of AI don't actually have the skill or knowledge (or discipline) to do so / judge its correctness. it's peak dunning-kruger
stego-tech 11mo ago
There always has been, thus far. When I was attending CC for an A+ class in High School, my lab partner was a woman in her early 40s who pulled down a staggering amount of money doing COBOL programming. I learned first hand that for every advancement in technology, there will always be folks who (rightly or wrongly) find no value proposition in upgrading needlessly. AI as it presently stands is very much one of those things where in the immediate, sure, there’s money to be made jumping on the bandwagon. Even I keep tinkering with it in some capacity from an IT POV, and it has some legitimate use cases that even surprise me sometimes. However, I aim to build a career like the COBOL programmer did: staying technically sharp as the world abstracts away, because someone, somewhere, will eventually need help digging out of a hole that upgrades or automation got them into. And at that point, you can bill for the first class airfare, the five-star hotel, and four-figures a day to save their ass.

AuthAuth 11mo ago

AI tools will get easier and easier to use. There will be no skill level required to use them effectively.

frde_me 11mo ago
Has this been true for any technology, ever? In that the curve of skill to output quality will be completely flat? I would be suspicious of this claim.
- mgrandl 11mo ago
  Does everything always need precedence?
  - tines 11mo ago
    Thank you. AI is different from tools we've seen before. There won't always be a precedent to refer to.
  - zeroonetwothree 11mo ago
    I think you mean precedents but in any case the precedent is that often a new tech is heralded with “this time is different! Ignore the precedents” and yet so far that has been wrong every time. One day the sun won’t rise in the morning but it’s not something I’m going to plan on happening in my lifetime.
    - mgrandl 11mo ago
      Jep, sorry not an native english speaker. It’s been wrong every time, except for the times it wasn’t. Nobody remembers those though. Something something confirmation bias.
- nosianu 11mo ago
  > Has this been true for any technology, ever? Yes? Try abacus, slide rules or mechanical calculating machines vs electronic calculators. Or ancient vs modern computers and software. They didn't even have "end-users" like we understand them now, every computer user was a specialist. Programming. Writing. Quill vs. ballpen, but also alphabets vs what you had to write before. Photography, more than one big jump in usability. Film cameras, projectors/screens. Transportation: From navigation to piloting aircraft or cars. Originally you had to be a part-time mechanic. Many advanced (i.e. more complex than e.g. a hammer) tools in manufacturing or at home.

IncandescentGas 11mo ago

Identifying the 1% of ai use cases that are useful and refusing to have your attention stolen by the 99% that is mild melting garbage will be the key ai skill for the ai future

Dilettante_ 11mo ago
So same as with the internet
- stego-tech 11mo ago
  This is both the sickest burn and truest statement I’ve read today. Here, have a (digital) shortbread cookie: o

wslh 11mo ago

Using AI as a tool is similar to using a search engine and specific sites in the past. People are using it naturally (for what it works)

righthand 11mo ago

Have you considered the inverse? Those who use AI as tool today will be replaced by those that aren't tomorrow.

darkmarmot 11mo ago
This is what I'm seeing currently at work. YMMV.
angst_ridden 11mo ago
Those who know how to fix the messes made by AI today will replace those who don't tomorrow.

bigstrat2003 11mo ago

> The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. That's not a robust prediction. Many people who don't use AI today simply don't do so because they've tried it, and found it subtracts value. Those people will not be replaced tomorrow, they will merely reevaluate the tool and start using it if it has started to add value.

criley2 11mo ago
If jobs were based on self-perceived value addition there would never be a layoff ever Your executive team is going to "remove" non-AI folks regardless of their claims about efficiency. Just like they forced you to return to office while ignoring the exact same efficiency claims. They had realestate to protect. Now they have AI to protect.
- xoac 11mo ago
  I upvoted both posts
- moron4hire 11mo ago
  "Now they have AI to protect," you're ultimately talking about corporate leadership being susceptible to the sunk cost fallacy here. But AI investment is a particularly easy sunk cost to get out of compared to real estate. Real estate has lease obligations and moving costs; it will cost you a lot more in the short term to get rid of your real estate. AI you could just stop using and immediately see cost reduction.
  - ffsm8 11mo ago
    There are trillions invested innit at this point. 50 year lease write off would be peanuts compared to what's been invested with the expectation of payouts
  - criley2 11mo ago
    The entire American tech industry will implode in a bubble pop if AI doesn't pan out. I argue that real estate was a smaller problem than this AI bubble behemoth they've created. And now everyones retirement is wrapped up in it.

risyachka 11mo ago

Everyone uses or will use ai, there is no learning curve so this is not an advantage

eloisant 11mo ago
Yes there is, for coding for example you need to learn how to use the tools efficiently otherwise you'll get garbage... And end up either discarding everything and claiming AI is crap, or push it to prod and have to deal with the garbage code in prod.
- risyachka 11mo ago
  Just open codex or claude code, add md file with basic instructions and tell it what you want. there is no "tooling" or "workflows" around it. "swarm of agents" is not a thing. And if your agent is running in background for hours then you are doing something wrong and wasting time.
swat535 11mo ago
I think a better prediction would be that the current (or future?) generation Software Engineers will migrate to building and developing AI systems, basically working for OpenAI, Anthropic, etc. The future of computing could very well be AI (and related fields) + Robotics + Hardware .. instead of Software + Hardware.

iLoveOncall 11mo ago

> The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. And I make the inverse prediction. I work for a FAANG and I see it, from juniors to senior engineers, the one who use AI generate absolute slop that is unreadable, unmaintainable, and is definitely going to break. They are making themselves not just redundant, but an actual danger to the company.