3 ms·

> AI, even the relatively lackluster state we have today, has a ton of very useful usage cases that are actually working in the field. Useful use cases at what

by mgh95 11mo ago

> AI, even the relatively lackluster state we have today, has a ton of very useful usage cases that are actually working in the field. Useful use cases at what price? It's totally possible that after VC money dries up the price increases far beyond what customers (both business and consumer) have been paying, resulting in demand destruction rendering the investment a net negative for Oracle.

gunalx 11mo ago
Not nessesarily. We have providers of hosted oss models (even large sota ones), with competitive API pricing. They have no reason to subsidice their services, outside og initial market grab. But there is so many of them that it dosent look to bad. Also buisnisses have invested to host things locally themselves as well.
- mgh95 11mo ago
  > Not nessesarily. We have providers of hosted oss models (even large sota ones), with competitive API pricing. They have no reason to subsidice their services, outside og initial market grab. But there is so many of them that it dosent look to bad. That price is holding at the current demand ratio of GPU availability/consumption. If the large companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic cease training new models and accepting loss-leader lines of business such as free consumer inference there is a reasonable chance of a GPU glut. This GPU glut may drive down prices Oracle can command for their cloud services. The fundamental problem is not the market as it stands today. The problem is where will the market equilibrium shift from increased capacity and reduced demand due to VC subsidy reduction.
kvam 11mo ago
That might be precisely why OpenAI is pushing an over investment in infrastructure. When VCs are no longer willing to substitute compute, having more compute available than natural demand will drive the prices down.

3 ms·

> AI, even the relatively lackluster state we have today, has a ton of very useful usage cases that are actually working in the field. Useful use cases at what

by mgh95 11mo ago

gunalx 11mo ago
Not nessesarily. We have providers of hosted oss models (even large sota ones), with competitive API pricing. They have no reason to subsidice their services, outside og initial market grab. But there is so many of them that it dosent look to bad. Also buisnisses have invested to host things locally themselves as well.
- mgh95 11mo ago
  > Not nessesarily. We have providers of hosted oss models (even large sota ones), with competitive API pricing. They have no reason to subsidice their services, outside og initial market grab. But there is so many of them that it dosent look to bad. That price is holding at the current demand ratio of GPU availability/consumption. If the large companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic cease training new models and accepting loss-leader lines of business such as free consumer inference there is a reasonable chance of a GPU glut. This GPU glut may drive down prices Oracle can command for their cloud services. The fundamental problem is not the market as it stands today. The problem is where will the market equilibrium shift from increased capacity and reduced demand due to VC subsidy reduction.
kvam 11mo ago
That might be precisely why OpenAI is pushing an over investment in infrastructure. When VCs are no longer willing to substitute compute, having more compute available than natural demand will drive the prices down.