5 ms·
More like that when it happens, how big the pop is.
by nicce 11mo ago
More like that when it happens, how big the pop is.
- tetris11 11mo agoIt'll be fine. When the banks burst in 2008, they were gifted 7 trillion to make up the shortfall and life went on for the rich. This time they'll be gifted 70 trillion to make up for the shortfall, and life shall continue on for the rich. It's win-win for them, there's no risk at all
- cjbgkagh 11mo agoI think the economic background has changed, in 2008 it was after a big run up in wealth so the reversion wasn’t so bad, there was some fat to cut. Since then people have been ground down to the breaking point, another 2008 wipeout will cut into the bone. I do think this time it could be different.
- jghn 11mo agoprivatize profit, socialize risk. same as it always was
- gizajob 11mo agoThe money system breaking is one thing, companies that build chatbots going to the wall is another.
- TulliusCicero 11mo agoIt's also possible it'll be more of a deflation than a pop. That's what I'm personally hoping for anyway, would rather the economy avoid a big recession.
- mrguyorama 11mo agoWithout AI bubble the economy is already mostly in a recession.
- TulliusCicero 11mo agoWithout the AI bubble, most of that money would probably still flow to some other sector of the economy. It wouldn't just disappear.
- kazen44 11mo agowhich is kind of sad to think about. The US could have invested all that money to actually invest in its infrastructure, schools, hospitals and general wellbeing of its workforce to make the economy thrive.
- TulliusCicero 11mo agoIt's not "the US" who's investing the money. This is the same problem people run into when they say, "we should just put money into more trains and buses rather than self driving cars". Private actors are the ones who are investing into AI, and there's no real way for them to invest into public infrastructure, or to eventually profit from it, the way investors reasonably expect to do when they put up their money for something. It's the government who can choose to invest into infrastructure, and it's us voters who can choose to vote for politicians who will make that choice. But we haven't done that. So many people want to complain endlessly about government and corporations -- not entirely without merit, of course -- but then are quick to let voters off the hook.
- lizknope 11mo agoSo much of the investment is circular. One software or hardware company is investing in an AI company which invests in the others. See this chart https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/should-we-worry-about-ais-circular https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/should-we-worry-about-ais-circ...
- cman1444 11mo agoI'm not. A few podcasts I've listened to recently (mostly Odd Lots) explored how a pop is often preferable to a protracted downturn because it weeds out the losers quickly and allows the economy to begin the recovery aspect sooner. A protracted downturn risks poorly managed assets limping along for years instead of having capital reallocated to better investments. Better to rip the bandaid off and begin anew.