I'd guess that its unlikely anyone can pick out the next Steve Jobs. I don't think even Steve Jobs could have predicted how successful he would have been. There

I'd guess that its unlikely anyone can pick out the next Steve Jobs. I don't think even Steve Jobs could have predicted how successful he would have been. There's just no consistent or solid enough data that can help in predicting how successful a person can be. When you judge someone, the best indicator that they can be successful is that they have past successes. Hence the criteria that all VCs, employers, and YC look at is skewed towards previous achievements. Ie. university, previous companies, current traction, etc. I doubt even a young Steve Jobs could have shit talked his way into a YC meeting without a prototype and traction.