3 ms·

I suspect that isn't true

by wilg 11mo ago

fhsm 11mo ago
S&P500 isn’t “the economy” but in the context of talk of a bubble it seems like we’re talking about equities not the whole economy. So let’s just keep taking the short cut … The top is over performing so concentration is real but it’s not the only growth driver: https://www.fool.com/research/magnificent-seven-sp-500/ https://www.fool.com/research/magnificent-seven-sp-500/ The return / valuation concentration prob not as titillating as the PE run up: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surprisingly-excellent-run-stocks-exactly-090000014.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surprisingly-excellent-run-st... True or not true hard to say without better definitions of terms but seems like current profile is not ultra common in history but it’s not a bunch of losers getting diluted out.
fzeroracer 11mo ago
We're at a record number of subprime borrowers falling behind on car loans, which historically is a really bad economical sign, consumer sentiment is at an all time low and the labor market isn't looking great either. Anecdotally, prices have risen sharply and people are getting sharply priced out of basic necessities due to rising costs.
- sumedh 11mo ago
  Can you please share a link with the data?
  - fzeroracer 11mo ago
    The subprime loan data can be seen here [1] and consumer sentiment here [2]. Job losses are much harder to estimate given that the current admin is actively refusing to post job numbers (for perhaps, obvious reasons) but we've seen other sites estimate that we're seeing record layoffs [3]. And that's before we get into stuff like tariff policy or the hidden costs of throwing a lot of government employees into unemployment. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/record-number-subprime-borrowers-miss-car-loan-payments-october-data-shows-2025-11-12/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/record... [2] https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu [3] https://www.cbsnews.com/video/october-marks-worst-layoffs-22-years-american-household-debt-reaches-record-high/ https://www.cbsnews.com/video/october-marks-worst-layoffs-22...
- whydoineedthis 11mo ago
  The last financial crisis was 2008. Are you saying there was a tech bubble in 2008? The economy can do bad in lots of sectors while others are gaining traction.

I suspect that isn't true

by wilg 11mo ago

I suspect that isn't true

fhsm 11mo ago

S&P500 isn’t “the economy” but in the context of talk of a bubble it seems like we’re talking about equities not the whole economy. So let’s just keep taking the short cut … The top is over performing so concentration is real but it’s not the only growth driver: https://www.fool.com/research/magnificent-seven-sp-500/ https://www.fool.com/research/magnificent-seven-sp-500/ The return / valuation concentration prob not as titillating as the PE run up: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surprisingly-excellent-run-stocks-exactly-090000014.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surprisingly-excellent-run-st... True or not true hard to say without better definitions of terms but seems like current profile is not ultra common in history but it’s not a bunch of losers getting diluted out.

fzeroracer 11mo ago

We're at a record number of subprime borrowers falling behind on car loans, which historically is a really bad economical sign, consumer sentiment is at an all time low and the labor market isn't looking great either. Anecdotally, prices have risen sharply and people are getting sharply priced out of basic necessities due to rising costs.

sumedh 11mo ago
Can you please share a link with the data?
- fzeroracer 11mo ago
  The subprime loan data can be seen here [1] and consumer sentiment here [2]. Job losses are much harder to estimate given that the current admin is actively refusing to post job numbers (for perhaps, obvious reasons) but we've seen other sites estimate that we're seeing record layoffs [3]. And that's before we get into stuff like tariff policy or the hidden costs of throwing a lot of government employees into unemployment. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/record-number-subprime-borrowers-miss-car-loan-payments-october-data-shows-2025-11-12/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/record... [2] https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu [3] https://www.cbsnews.com/video/october-marks-worst-layoffs-22-years-american-household-debt-reaches-record-high/ https://www.cbsnews.com/video/october-marks-worst-layoffs-22...
whydoineedthis 11mo ago
The last financial crisis was 2008. Are you saying there was a tech bubble in 2008? The economy can do bad in lots of sectors while others are gaining traction.