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Not a financial person by any means, but doesn't the Black Swan Theory basically disproves such methods due to rarity of an event that might have huge impact wi
by malkia 11mo ago
Not a financial person by any means, but doesn't the Black Swan Theory basically disproves such methods due to rarity of an event that might have huge impact without something to predict (in the past) that it might happen, or even if it can be predicted - the impact cannot?
For example: Chernobyl, COVID, 2008 financial crisis and even 9/11
- ACCount37 11mo agoAll models are wrong, but some are useful. If you had a financial model that somehow predicted everything but black swan events, that would still be enough to make yourself rich beyond belief.