6 ms·

Are you really unaware of how often plane hijackings use to occur?

fn-mote 11mo ago
Eyeballing the data [1], it looks like total fatalities in the low 1000s, and roughly 20 hijackings per year 1980-2000. Let's value each human fatality at $1M, and - lacking any knowledge about the subject - cargo also at $1M/incident. That's about $1B in human life loss and $20M/year in cargo. The 2025 budget for ths TSA was over $10B, so we're spending 10x the loss to prevent it. Value each human life at $10M? Then the total value of lives lost over a 20 year span is about one year of TSA spending. [1]: https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/airline-hijackings-once-relatively-common-are-rare-today https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/airline-hijackings-...
- JustExAWS 11mo ago
  You’re completely ignoring the knock on economic effects of lower confidence in flight safety, liability and the not so hypothetical ability of someone to take over a plane and use it to attack ground targets. AirTran for instance went out of business because of one crash. If someone blew up a United plane, I can guarantee you that Delta would increase the security before you got on their flights to instill confidence on passengers. And people act as if airport security and the TSA measures are unique to the US. My wife and I just got into a position where the stars aligned for us to fly a lot post Covid. But during that time the three countries that we have flown out of - London, Costa Rica and Mexico all have the basic same security measure with the slight difference that you can bring liquids on board from LHR because they have newer scanners that supposedly detect explosives. And it’s not just airlines. We also had to go through the same type of security to get on the “Chunnel” from London to France. The only thing that is really theatre is taking off your shoes in the US.
- antonkochubey 11mo ago
  The current VSL (value of a statistical life) is approximately $13.1 million, a figure that varies by agency. For example, the Department of Transportation (DOT) uses $13.7 million for its safety standards.
idiotsecant 11mo ago
Barely ever? I don't see any evidence to suggest that the TSA has any level of effectiveness in preventing them, either.
- Filligree 11mo ago
  What prevents them is the reinforced cockpit door, and the passengers’ knowledge that they’ll die if they don’t stop the hijackers. The TSA just happened to be made ac the same time as that changed.
  - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
    Guns? If you don’t have security. It’s a lot easier to overpower someone with knives than guns
    - idiotsecant 11mo ago
      Are you suggesting that TSA can reliably stop being from bringing guns onboard? The only thing preventing that is that people mostly don't want to bring guns on board. It's a pointless exercise that accomplishes basically nothing .
      - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
        Are you saying metal detectors don’t work? Why is it that absolutely every airport in the world has similar security - as well as Brightline in Florida and the Chunnel between London and France? As far as people not wanting to bring guns on planes - did you forget what country this is? 2nd Amendment people get their panties in a knot anytime they can’t bring a gun anywhere.
        Filligree 11mo ago
        > Are you saying metal detectors don’t work? Every time they've tested it, the testers were able to get 70-80% of their weapons past the TSA; which, yes, includes guns. I don't know precisely how they achieved that, but they certainly did.
AnthonyMouse 11mo ago
Plane hijackings used to occur because the SOP was to not resist and try to negotiate with the hijackers for the safe release of the passengers. After 9/11 the assumption has to be that they're going to fly the plane into a building and kill everyone, so now if you try to hijack a plane all the passengers and crew are going to beat you to death with their fists and shoelaces like their life depends on it, which makes it a lot harder to hijack a plane. The TSA has approximately nothing to do with that.
- raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
  Yes and how well is that going to work if people can get guns on board? Flight 94 they had knives.
  - AnthonyMouse 11mo ago
    Guns are trash on a plane. The use of a firearm is to be able to incapacitate someone from far enough away that they can't counterattack. Planes are densely packed with people. You'd have people surrounding and disarming you long before you could get control of the plane. How many shots do you expect to get off when anyone you're not currently aiming at can put their hands on the gun while someone else grabs your other arm to pull you in the opposite direction and a third person comes up behind you and kicks you between the legs? Also notice that even if you somehow managed to kill everyone on the plane, you'd then be left with just a plane full of terrorists for the government to blow out of the sky. And if all you wanted was to kill a bunch of random people then being on a plane has nothing to do with it.
    - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
      Terrorism is never about how many people you kill. It’s about instilling fear and sending a message and the downstream economic harm. Look no further than 911. Two costly unnecessary wars (that even republicans don’t defend anymore) that caused an entirely new generation of people to hate America.
      - 11mo ago
ACCount37 11mo ago
And are you aware of what exactly has changed? One notable change is: reinforced cockpit doors that can't be forced open from the outside easily. Good luck hijacking with that. But another notable change is that plane crews and passengers all understand now that plane hijacking is a life or death situation, and would fight hijackers to the bitter end. Which is what happened on the very day of 9/11, on Flight 93.
- JustExAWS 11mo ago
  With reinforced doors - pilots still come out to use the restroom. Flight attendants usually just block the aisle. People will fight back in the case of knives. But how much fighting back dk you think is going to happen if people have guns? How long do you think it’s going to be before a pilot opens the door if a hijacker starts shooting people? Airport security is by far not just in America with the only exception in my experience is that other airports don’t make you take your shoes off and some allow liquids in carryon
  - triceratops 11mo ago
    Why would they have guns? Even pre-TSA airports used metal detectors.
    - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
      And security was run by private contractors at the airport. So you are opposed to the TSA but not security. What’s the difference? No you don’t pay for TSA out of taxpayer money. The airlines do bu adding a cost to your ticket.
      - triceratops 11mo ago
        > So you are opposed to the TSA but not security I expressed no opinion on the TSA.
  - InsideOutSanta 11mo ago

Eyeballing the data [1], it looks like total fatalities in the low 1000s, and roughly 20 hijackings per year 1980-2000. Let's value each human fatality at $1M, and - lacking any knowledge about the subject - cargo also at $1M/incident. That's about $1B in human life loss and $20M/year in cargo. The 2025 budget for ths TSA was over $10B, so we're spending 10x the loss to prevent it. Value each human life at $10M? Then the total value of lives lost over a 20 year span is about one year of TSA spending. [1]: https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/airline-hijackings-once-relatively-common-are-rare-today https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/airline-hijackings-...

JustExAWS 11mo ago
You’re completely ignoring the knock on economic effects of lower confidence in flight safety, liability and the not so hypothetical ability of someone to take over a plane and use it to attack ground targets. AirTran for instance went out of business because of one crash. If someone blew up a United plane, I can guarantee you that Delta would increase the security before you got on their flights to instill confidence on passengers. And people act as if airport security and the TSA measures are unique to the US. My wife and I just got into a position where the stars aligned for us to fly a lot post Covid. But during that time the three countries that we have flown out of - London, Costa Rica and Mexico all have the basic same security measure with the slight difference that you can bring liquids on board from LHR because they have newer scanners that supposedly detect explosives. And it’s not just airlines. We also had to go through the same type of security to get on the “Chunnel” from London to France. The only thing that is really theatre is taking off your shoes in the US.
antonkochubey 11mo ago
The current VSL (value of a statistical life) is approximately $13.1 million, a figure that varies by agency. For example, the Department of Transportation (DOT) uses $13.7 million for its safety standards.

idiotsecant 11mo ago

Barely ever? I don't see any evidence to suggest that the TSA has any level of effectiveness in preventing them, either.

Filligree 11mo ago
What prevents them is the reinforced cockpit door, and the passengers’ knowledge that they’ll die if they don’t stop the hijackers. The TSA just happened to be made ac the same time as that changed.
- raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
  Guns? If you don’t have security. It’s a lot easier to overpower someone with knives than guns
  - idiotsecant 11mo ago
    Are you suggesting that TSA can reliably stop being from bringing guns onboard? The only thing preventing that is that people mostly don't want to bring guns on board. It's a pointless exercise that accomplishes basically nothing .
    - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
      Are you saying metal detectors don’t work? Why is it that absolutely every airport in the world has similar security - as well as Brightline in Florida and the Chunnel between London and France? As far as people not wanting to bring guns on planes - did you forget what country this is? 2nd Amendment people get their panties in a knot anytime they can’t bring a gun anywhere.
      - Filligree 11mo ago
        > Are you saying metal detectors don’t work? Every time they've tested it, the testers were able to get 70-80% of their weapons past the TSA; which, yes, includes guns. I don't know precisely how they achieved that, but they certainly did.

AnthonyMouse 11mo ago

Plane hijackings used to occur because the SOP was to not resist and try to negotiate with the hijackers for the safe release of the passengers. After 9/11 the assumption has to be that they're going to fly the plane into a building and kill everyone, so now if you try to hijack a plane all the passengers and crew are going to beat you to death with their fists and shoelaces like their life depends on it, which makes it a lot harder to hijack a plane. The TSA has approximately nothing to do with that.

raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
Yes and how well is that going to work if people can get guns on board? Flight 94 they had knives.
- AnthonyMouse 11mo ago
  Guns are trash on a plane. The use of a firearm is to be able to incapacitate someone from far enough away that they can't counterattack. Planes are densely packed with people. You'd have people surrounding and disarming you long before you could get control of the plane. How many shots do you expect to get off when anyone you're not currently aiming at can put their hands on the gun while someone else grabs your other arm to pull you in the opposite direction and a third person comes up behind you and kicks you between the legs? Also notice that even if you somehow managed to kill everyone on the plane, you'd then be left with just a plane full of terrorists for the government to blow out of the sky. And if all you wanted was to kill a bunch of random people then being on a plane has nothing to do with it.
  - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
    Terrorism is never about how many people you kill. It’s about instilling fear and sending a message and the downstream economic harm. Look no further than 911. Two costly unnecessary wars (that even republicans don’t defend anymore) that caused an entirely new generation of people to hate America.
    - 11mo ago

ACCount37 11mo ago

And are you aware of what exactly has changed? One notable change is: reinforced cockpit doors that can't be forced open from the outside easily. Good luck hijacking with that. But another notable change is that plane crews and passengers all understand now that plane hijacking is a life or death situation, and would fight hijackers to the bitter end. Which is what happened on the very day of 9/11, on Flight 93.

JustExAWS 11mo ago
With reinforced doors - pilots still come out to use the restroom. Flight attendants usually just block the aisle. People will fight back in the case of knives. But how much fighting back dk you think is going to happen if people have guns? How long do you think it’s going to be before a pilot opens the door if a hijacker starts shooting people? Airport security is by far not just in America with the only exception in my experience is that other airports don’t make you take your shoes off and some allow liquids in carryon
- triceratops 11mo ago
  Why would they have guns? Even pre-TSA airports used metal detectors.
  - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
    And security was run by private contractors at the airport. So you are opposed to the TSA but not security. What’s the difference? No you don’t pay for TSA out of taxpayer money. The airlines do bu adding a cost to your ticket.
    - triceratops 11mo ago
      > So you are opposed to the TSA but not security I expressed no opinion on the TSA.
- InsideOutSanta 11mo ago