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I have not, but I just checked and the odds for HLS moon landing before 2028 are at 12%. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmoon/nasa-lands-on-the-moon/moon https://

• boxed 1y ago
  12% odds for 3 years seems fairly resonable for a manned landing. Your statement of "Starship will never go to Mars. It's very unlikely it will go to the Moon" which sounds like it includes even unmanned test landnings is a quite different beast.
  • jojobas 1y ago
    There are more possible bets on manifold, you do you. I'm not really a betting man, but given the HLS budget is spent and most of technology is not nearly developed I'd say even an unmanned Moon landing is at least 5 years and $10 billion away and Mars is pure fantasy.
    • boxed 11mo ago
      > but given the HLS budget is spent What does that mean? Starship is basically self-funded by SpaceX and the amount of money they got for the HLS contract is something they blew way past even before the contract, that doesn't make much sense.