4 ms·

Well I would disagree with that and laugh at the fact that this exact analysis has been published by The Economist and similar for the past 50 years, in fact fo

by nolok 11mo ago

Well I would disagree with that and laugh at the fact that this exact analysis has been published by The Economist and similar for the past 50 years, in fact for the first time France unemployment numbers have gone below the numbers they climbed to in the 90s, and in 2020 for the first time since the turn of the century our deficit was reaching a point allowing our debt to start lowering instead of climbing, and was stopped by a combination of both covid and then the energy crisis and the cover offered to french people. We do have issues and for the past 3 years they've been amplified by our political standoff (parliament cut in three third and none agree to work with the others), but the core of our economic woes is from pensions.

littlestymaar 11mo ago
> Well I would disagree with that and laugh at the fact that this exact analysis has been published by The Economist and similar for the past 50 years I'd be happy to live in a timeline where the Economist criticizes the bullshit that “supply chain economics” is, but if you paid attention you'd be aware that it's not really their editorial line. > fact for the first time France unemployment numbers have gone below the numbers they climbed to in the 90s You should thank the boomers for retiring, not the economic policy. (By the way, employment went up in pretty much all of Europe for the 2010-2020 period while the economy stagnated in most places but the east) > We do have issues and for the past 3 years they've been amplified by our political standoff (parliament cut in three third and none agree to work with the others Standoff caused exactly by the government dogmatic stand over their failed economic policy … > but the core of our economic woes is from pensions. It is not, this is government narrative. The “pension problem” is merely an economic activity problem. When the real wages go down (which is did in France since 2017) while pensions are inflation adjusted, obviously the share of income that goes through pensions increases but that's not a “pensions problem” it's a wage issue (and economy health issue). In fact, public spending per capita is in the middle of what remwins of the EU15 (just above all other Mediterranean countries and below all the others). The reason why the spendings per capita ratio is too high is not because the spendings are too high, but because the GDP is far too low due to inept policies.
rvnx 11mo ago
You forgot to mention that in 2020 currencies were devalued through severe QE, which means it is easier in 2025 to pay back 2M EUR than it was in 2020
- littlestymaar 11mo ago
  Inflation != currency devaluation and France had a pretty tame inflation compared to many of its neighbors (significantly less than Belgium for instance), which again is a good illustration that inflation has nothing to do with the money supply or the value of a currency, no matter how prevalent this myth is.
  - rvnx 11mo ago
    Check the money supply during COVID, it was insane.
    - littlestymaar 11mo ago
      Check the money supply after the financial crisis, it was insane too and the inflation remained below target for a decade. Covid induced inflation has nothing to do with the money supply and all to do with supply chain disruption.
      - wqaatwt 11mo ago
        > was insane too Not even remotely close to 2020-21 though. M2 supply increased by the same proportion between Feb and June 2020 as between 2009 and 2013. By 2021 it had increased by same % as 2009 to 2015. > and all to do with supply chain disruption Not massive inflation in asset prices. All that money had to go somewhere, so stocks are now significantly overvalued and housing is unaffordable.
        littlestymaar 11mo ago
        > Not even remotely close to 2020-21 though Yes it has, and you show it right below: > By 2021 it had increased by same % as 2009 to 2015. It increased faster but the money supply variation was in the same ballpark, when the CPI evolution definitely wasn't (you can compare CPI between 2009 and 2015 and 2019-2021 you'll see that there's no link between inflation and the money supply). > Not massive inflation in asset prices. All that money had to go somewhere, so stocks are now significantly overvalued and housing is unaffordable. This has nothing to do with “inflation” (which, by definition is the evolution of CPI). And the solution to this problem is actually quite simple: tax the rich (who got their free central bank money from nothing in exchange).

by nolok 11mo ago

littlestymaar 11mo ago

> Well I would disagree with that and laugh at the fact that this exact analysis has been published by The Economist and similar for the past 50 years I'd be happy to live in a timeline where the Economist criticizes the bullshit that “supply chain economics” is, but if you paid attention you'd be aware that it's not really their editorial line. > fact for the first time France unemployment numbers have gone below the numbers they climbed to in the 90s You should thank the boomers for retiring, not the economic policy. (By the way, employment went up in pretty much all of Europe for the 2010-2020 period while the economy stagnated in most places but the east) > We do have issues and for the past 3 years they've been amplified by our political standoff (parliament cut in three third and none agree to work with the others Standoff caused exactly by the government dogmatic stand over their failed economic policy … > but the core of our economic woes is from pensions. It is not, this is government narrative. The “pension problem” is merely an economic activity problem. When the real wages go down (which is did in France since 2017) while pensions are inflation adjusted, obviously the share of income that goes through pensions increases but that's not a “pensions problem” it's a wage issue (and economy health issue). In fact, public spending per capita is in the middle of what remwins of the EU15 (just above all other Mediterranean countries and below all the others). The reason why the spendings per capita ratio is too high is not because the spendings are too high, but because the GDP is far too low due to inept policies.

rvnx 11mo ago

You forgot to mention that in 2020 currencies were devalued through severe QE, which means it is easier in 2025 to pay back 2M EUR than it was in 2020

littlestymaar 11mo ago
Inflation != currency devaluation and France had a pretty tame inflation compared to many of its neighbors (significantly less than Belgium for instance), which again is a good illustration that inflation has nothing to do with the money supply or the value of a currency, no matter how prevalent this myth is.
- rvnx 11mo ago
  Check the money supply during COVID, it was insane.
  - littlestymaar 11mo ago
    Check the money supply after the financial crisis, it was insane too and the inflation remained below target for a decade. Covid induced inflation has nothing to do with the money supply and all to do with supply chain disruption.
    - wqaatwt 11mo ago
      > was insane too Not even remotely close to 2020-21 though. M2 supply increased by the same proportion between Feb and June 2020 as between 2009 and 2013. By 2021 it had increased by same % as 2009 to 2015. > and all to do with supply chain disruption Not massive inflation in asset prices. All that money had to go somewhere, so stocks are now significantly overvalued and housing is unaffordable.
      - littlestymaar 11mo ago
        > Not even remotely close to 2020-21 though Yes it has, and you show it right below: > By 2021 it had increased by same % as 2009 to 2015. It increased faster but the money supply variation was in the same ballpark, when the CPI evolution definitely wasn't (you can compare CPI between 2009 and 2015 and 2019-2021 you'll see that there's no link between inflation and the money supply). > Not massive inflation in asset prices. All that money had to go somewhere, so stocks are now significantly overvalued and housing is unaffordable. This has nothing to do with “inflation” (which, by definition is the evolution of CPI). And the solution to this problem is actually quite simple: tax the rich (who got their free central bank money from nothing in exchange).