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By this criteria - all papers that extrapolate are BS papers. There’s a ridiculous number of stars in the sky - no matter how low you put the odds of intellige
by intended 1y ago
By this criteria - all papers that extrapolate are BS papers.
There’s a ridiculous number of stars in the sky - no matter how low you put the odds of intelligent life, you will still end up with more than 1 civilized species in the universe.
This is, at least for me, the primary utility of such extrapolations. And eventually - extrapolations will be tested.
- gregbot 1y agoExtrapolating from multiple good data points and making up a number based on zero examples are absolutely not the same thing.
- intended 1y agoComing up with an estimate, calling it a theory and being clear about the fact that it’s not a sure thing ? That’s perfectly fine.
- gregbot 1y agoSetting aside if its perfectly fine or not, its not the same as extrapolating from actual data (and no its not “perfectly fine” to completely make up a number and pretend like its science.)