I think both yours and the GP's points can be simply explained as: it's obvious in hindsight, but not in foresight. Quite frankly, we (in a collective, general

I think both yours and the GP's points can be simply explained as: it's obvious in hindsight, but not in foresight. Quite frankly, we (in a collective, general sense) suck at predicting the future. Half will think A, half will think B, and the half that ends up being correct by chance will think they are actually smart rather than lucky.