4 ms·
White House rules out bailout for AI as bubble fears grow
- techblueberry 1y agoSo the AI companies are definitely getting a bail out then. Or should we call it a shmail out.
- zerosizedweasle 1y agoI do think there would be revolution. People don't have another billionaire bailout in them, it would break the system
- V__ 1y agoIf anything that is already happening doesn't result in one, then one bailout more also won't.
- techblueberry 1y agoI agree, but I think the fortunes of the Trump administration are too tied up with the stock market for them to just let them fail. Obviously “shmail out” was a joke, but there is some truth to the idea. Because whatever it is can’t look like a bail out, it has to look like the private markets saved themselves.
- treetalker 1y agooverpaying for stakes in the companies, mayhaps
- tekbruh9000 1y agoThe problem with the revolution talk is too few know how to "work to live". Only 4% hunt in the US anymore. When is the last time you sewed a shirt? Grew a carrot? 100 years ago everyone had manual labor skills, even the rich. Musk and Zuckerberg live the same prisoner's dilemma. Our lived experience informs us revolution is certain doom as we watch ourselves live daily routines that only require the smallest obligation to ourselves; eat, shower, sleep, computer. ~84% live less than 100 miles from their childhood home. Americans are fine being sedate and cared for despite the rhetoric they're rugged individuals. Office workers need to learn how to grow potatoes and rotate a tire first. The best kind of revolt would be a methodical Luigi style pruning. Simpsons made that joke 20+ years ago; you'd have to kill 50 CEOs to see certain changes[1]. That's included here to demonstrate how normal and old the issue is. Inflation since 1980 is 297%. Slow steady deflation of buying power into helplessness was not an accident. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/simpsonsshitposting/comments/1hios5o/thank_you_meathook/ https://www.reddit.com/r/simpsonsshitposting/comments/1hios5...
- zerosizedweasle 1y agoIt's not a rational response. If you think the game is unfair and you are losing, you always have the option to kick over the board. When people feel things are unfair they do radical things.
- tekbruh9000 1y agoNah, we don't have that luxury anymore. I mean in a vacuum of data yes sure it's a physical possibility. But we have polls of public opinion and those polled express concern for their lives and story so far. There is no simple binary choice. Inequality has been growing for decades. We've been discussing the unfairness the entire time. No revolutions.
- krustyburger 1y agohttps://frinkiac.com/caption/S11E08/1028360 https://frinkiac.com/caption/S11E08/1028360 The actual Simpsons joke had nothing to with either health care or CEOs. That subreddit is for making memes around classic Simpsons references, not a repository for them. If you can’t even get the Simpsons right, I’m more than skeptical of the various statistics you cited but didn’t bother providing sources for.
- tekbruh9000 1y ago[flagged]
- krustyburger 1y agoExcept that you completely misunderstood the joke. It’s at the expense of the character that thought killing was the way to achieve progress. And you cited a post-Luigi meme using The Simpsons as evidence of something having been mainstream during the time of The Simpsons. With a fancy citation and everything!
- tekbruh9000 1y ago
- PeterStuer 1y agoDivide and conquer seems to have been a pretty effective diffuser of descent last time. Why do you think it won't work this time around?
- pengaru 1y ago> Divide and conquer seems to have been a pretty effective diffuser of descent last time. Why do you think it won't work this time around? nit: dissent
- PeterStuer 1y agoThx. My dislexia strikes again. In before: No. It is not because English is not my native language. My spelling is actually worse in Dutch, amd I do not mind whatsoever people pointing out my misspellings.
- jqpabc123 1y agoOnly if the companies buy $Trump coins.
- bediger4000 1y agoSo it's a "bribe out".
- zerosizedweasle 1y agoI wonder what is going on with Oracle's credit default swaps lol
- sleepyguy 1y agoIf everyone’s talking about an AI bubble, chances are nothing’s going to happen—at least not yet. I think there’s still plenty of time to profit before there’s anything to worry about. There’s just so much money out there with nowhere else to go.
- tyleo 1y agoThat does not align with my experience at all. Lots of companies are seeking investment right now but investors are being shrewd spenders. AI is a bit of an anomaly in that it still attracts investments.
- zigzagger11 1y agoThe money at this point is probably all in the cloud providers, not the AI companies themselves.
- robthebrew 1y agoHas anyone analysed this house of cards? Like if OpenAI goes bust, what are the knock-ons due to the crazy loan exchange system in place across the industry.
- zerosizedweasle 1y agoYeah, I've seen a few blog posts gaming it out. It gets ugly in a hurry. There's an insane amount of risk that people have been willfully blind to
- _fat_santa 1y agoThe problem with bailing out these companies is that it just kicks the can down the road. When GM and Chrysler got bailed out in 08, GM returned to profitability in 2010 and Chrysler returned to profitability in 2011. The difference here is these AI companies have never been profitable and there is no telling if a bailout will even get them to profitability, it just gives them another few years until they need another cash infusion. Currently my prediction is that OpenAI's IPO will likely blow up in much the same way that WeWork's IPO blew up and that will likely be the start of the great AI bubble burst.
- jjtheblunt 1y agoGoogle has long been profitable, and Gemini is legit. Perhaps they're not included in the assertion as their computational clusters are monetized in other services as well?
- mapt 1y agoAI investment represents 10-20% of the value of the stock market. Does Gemini's existence directly dictate 10-20% of your consumer spending? (In a world of extreme wealth inequality) Now how about Paul Allen's consumer spending?
- jjtheblunt 1y agoDid you respond to a different (comment tree sub-)thread here?
- mapt 11mo agoI'm responding to the assertion that Gemini is legit. Being useful and being so indispensable that people are willing to spend 10-20% of their income on it (directly or indirectly) are entirely different things, and stock market valuations & investment levels roughly assume the latter will occur.
- _fat_santa 1y agoIn my comment I was really just referring to OpenAI, Anthropic and other companies where AI is the primary business. Google is a bit different cause they have a massive profitable business outside of AI.
- 1970-01-01 1y agoWe don't need anything "too big to fail" and should be aggressively passive whenever corporations shoot themselves in their own feet unless failure means large damage to the environment or the health of the people. The datacenter water consumption is trouble. For everyone. Everything else should be left to collapse and correct.
- mapt 1y agoWe passed "too big to fail" a long time ago. NVDA alone is worth $4.4T, up 1100% in five years. The entire 2008 crash only lost $8T in stock market capitalization.
- foxyv 1y agoI agree, one hundred percent. Capture of the government by corporate interests has neutralized the ability of the FTC to do their job and stop problems like this. Companies have gotten so large that if they catch a cold, the entire world coughs. This is unacceptable. The question remains, "Who is going to bell the cat?"
- netdevphoenix 1y agoLove it when the media starts reflecting the bubble fears HN described for at least 2 years. OpenAI might not crash yet but talk of bubbles is likely to tighten AI industry companies access to investor money imo. The days of investors blindly showering money on anything AI are coming to an end looks like. Actual RoI of existing AI systems is likely to come under increasing scrutiny imo
- arisAlexis 1y agoactually Sam didn't ask for a bailout. Everyone is getting crazy because the big short guy who has been wrong for a decade shorting Tesla went short and then other fear mongering mainly because people just can't grasp AI (yet).
- 1970-01-01 1y agoOnce it's enshittified by ads, I'm calling AI fully baked. What is there to actually grasp other then the humongous overspending? AI hasn't had a sensational breakthrough since ChatGPT was released years ago. Everyone else is following this leader at normal technical evolution speeds.
- __s 1y agohttps://stockcircle.com/portfolio/michael-burry/performance https://stockcircle.com/portfolio/michael-burry/performance Wouldn't say he's been wrong for 10 years, but agree his moves shouldn't be trusted blindly. Like all investors it's calculated risks
- quickthrowman 1y agoNobody gives a shit about Michael Burry’s positions, lol. The selling is for other reasons, not Burry’s latest 13F. He took it in the shorts while trying to short TSLA, he’s not a Market Oracle.
- tim333 1y agoI don't think this is about the big short guy. The main things with the recent discussion: Sam says they are spending $1.4T on data centers although they only have $14bn/yr in income and are loss making. When asked how that works he gets defensive. And the OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar was talking about: >"Meaning like a federal subsidy or something?" asked WSJ tech and media editor Sarah Krouse. >Friar replied, "Meaning like just first of all, the backstop, the guarantee that allows the financing to happen, that can really drop the cost of the financing... OpenAI say people are taking that out of context and they don't want guarantees for data centers.
- jakeinspace 11mo ago
- BeFlatXIII 1y agoI hope it's an uncontrolled pop.
- mapt 1y agoTrump will chicken out and pay them off.
- Mars008 1y agoHe has no money
- ratelimitsteve 1y agowe'll see what tomorrow brings
- cibyr 1y agoMy "will not bailout AI companies" t-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt.