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Good riddance. These guys had like 40% forecast accuracy, worse than random. When they say the winter will warmer it will be colder and vice versa.
by Lu2025 11mo ago
Good riddance. These guys had like 40% forecast accuracy, worse than random. When they say the winter will warmer it will be colder and vice versa.
- fingerlocks 11mo agoIf you’re treating a forecast as a single Bernoulli trial, wouldn’t that make them 60% accurate for the opposite of their prediction? Which is a silly assumption; a forecast isn’t a single yes-no event. it’s not obvious to me that 50% is the worst case success rate. Would be more interesting to compare their forecast to something like a long term NOAA forecast, but I don’t believe such a thing exists because calculating the future is very expensive.
- hbn 11mo agoGP did say it was just in reference to whether the winter will be warmer or colder than the last one, which is 50/50 In which case if they're 40% accurate, you can get 60% accuracy from them by assuming it'll be the opposite of what they say If they could get their accuracy down to 0% you'd have perfect predictions!