What fraction of conspiracy theories have proven correct, at a Snowden-ish level? My sense is that conspiracy theorists are essentially a cron job crying "Wolf

What fraction of conspiracy theories have proven correct, at a Snowden-ish level? My sense is that conspiracy theorists are essentially a cron job crying "Wolf!" every 60 seconds. The occasional real-world wolf does not justify paying any attention to the alarms. OTOH, it's a false dichotomy to believe that the false alarms prove the non-existence of wolves.