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The London School of Economics is taking the risk of civil war seriously, with many observers and experts having expressed concern. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/poli

The London School of Economics is taking the risk of civil war seriously, with many observers and experts having expressed concern. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/taking-warnings-of-civil-war-seriously/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/taking-warnings-of... ”Elon Musk’s comment about the inevitability of civil war in Britain might have been flippant. But similar concerns have been raised by journalists and academics within established democracies that over the possibility of civil conflict escalating to civil war”

SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
> Elon Musk’s comment about the inevitability of civil war in Britain might have been flippant. It is IMHO a mistake to view Elon Musk’s comment as merely "flippant". We should take the risk from "Elon Musk’s comments stoking civil war", and his personal platform to amplify radicalism and propagandise hatred, very seriously. Even if the civil war that he fantasises about is currently a nonsense.
- mytailorisrich 1y ago
  Sometimes what people predict is referred to as "nonsense" because they manage to infer things based on trends over a longer term than others who can only see what's right in front of them. In this case, Musk (and many others) only extrapolate the trends at play for 50+ years to their logical conclusion, and actually I'd say that denying this it's becoming more and more a case of ostrich syndrome.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
    I'm not saying you're always wrong in the abstract "sometimes" that you pose. But I stand what I said about Mr Musk specifically in this case.
    - mytailorisrich 1y ago
      Well, you also qualify your "nonsense" claim by "currently". This is the point, IMHO. No-one claims that civil war is imminent but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories.
      - SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
        > but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories. I think this too is utter nonsense. Too much of the twitter brainrot. But it does highlight the dangers that this poses, that people can easily fall into it as you have done. So, Mr Musk's incitement is a danger to you and others. Even if the "civil war" remains someone's fantasy.
        mytailorisrich 1y ago
        [flagged]
        SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
        > cannot simply be dismissed as "utter nonsense" and "twitter brainrot". I refer you to my earlier statement where I did just that. > .... non-European immigration ... the rise of Islam ... you need to ask how this ends. yep, standard-issue brainrot. edit in case it's not clear, the burden of proof is on the person making the unsubstantiated lurid claims about "civil war".
        mytailorisrich 1y ago
        HN is supposed to foster discussion and curiosity. I presented arguments to attempt to show that what Musk wrote is a least a plausible scenario (and the LSE link shows that this is taken seriously), whatever will actually happen (so "inevitable" is probably the interesting aspect to debate), whatever I think of Musk, and whatever I think of those issues in general. You keep being dangerously close to simply trolling...
  - beardyw 1y ago
    > Sometimes what people predict is referred to as "nonsense" because they manage to infer things based on trends over a longer term than others Or it's just wishful thinking. Musk's comments generally suggest he has no idea about the UK.
    - graemep 1y ago
      > Or it's just wishful thinking. Musk's comments generally suggest he has no idea about the UK. Like a lot of Americans (and, unfortunately, quite a lot of British people) he assumes the UK is far more similar to the US than it really is.
  - alimw 1y ago
    What do you think Musk is trying to do here? His purpose is not coolly to assess the probability of a certain outcome (nobody asked him to do that!) but rather to make that outcome more probable.
    - cosmicgadget 1y ago
      Imho it is more likely that he is using it to consolidate a voting bloc. Much like how all the partisan propaganda in the US of civil war convinced right wingers to rally around Trump and left wingers to not take it seriously. If you think that they will try to overthrow your way of life, you'll simultaneously announce you are prepared to defend yourself and - more importantly - you'll vote for whatever resembles your way of life. Elon doesn't profit from chaos, he is just using psychological manipulation to empower his allies.
      - alimw 1y ago
        In the UK at least, talk of civil war by right-wingers is intended not to put fear into their friends but to excite them. As they envisage, it's they who will be starting it. Yes that will act to consolidate a voting bloc for Musk's allies. If it were additionally to cause chaos that would be a bonus. Right-wingers in the US love nothing more than to point to a situation in a foreign country as a warning of the perils of leftism. Usually they just make shit up but of course it's better not to have to.
  - tastyface 1y ago
    If they're so terrified of being "replaced," maybe white supremacists should try having more kids instead of inciting race wars.
  - graemep 1y ago
    > n this case, Musk (and many others) only extrapolate the trends at play for 50+ years to their logical conclusion What 50+ year trends? Less racism?
mamonster 1y ago
>On April 21 2021, in a letter also signed by a group of retired officers, a former officer in France’s Ground Force, Jean-Pierre Fabre-Bernadac, made a stark warning. Published in the magazine Valuers Actuelles it denounced the growing chaos of French life, and warned of ‘racial’ and ‘civil’ war if nothing is done to prevent it,. Ah yes, 21st of April, date of the failed Algiers putsch against De Gaulle.
- mytailorisrich 1y ago
  And interestingly, in France this is all a continuation of that period...
tim333 1y ago
As a Brit I'm pretty confused as to how we should split into two teams in order to fight each other and what we are supposed to be fighting about. Perhaps Musk could give us better instructions at to what this war is supposed to be over and which side I'm on? His views on the UK all seem oddly out of touch and I get the impression a lot of info comes from people on X/twitter who don't live in the UK.
- mrtksn 1y ago
  You don't need to split into two equal sides to have a civil war. You can start having terrorist organizations that are able to obtain weapons with help from these billionaires to do acts that serve their agenda. They can fly people to private military companies for warfare training. Not necessarily everyone will be fighting everyone, you can end up having an organization doing very bad things and some of the population that has grievances(real or induced through information shaping) supporting it. At first the non-supporting side will demand to suspend some liberties to fix the security issues which very easily(the every bit of controversy or imperfection will do that) can deepen the divide and increase the support for the other side. The tenser it gets the more extreme politicians will raise and a feedback loop will be formed that will tear down the country. For now they are just shaping the information landscape to convince people that certain very bad things are happening and that they need to take action but let's say they start providing the material and the training, who's going to stop them? They happen to be close allies of a much larger country's administration that built a reputation for disdain towards the rule of law. If a Billionaire finances the shipping a few thousand rifles and explosive to UK in drug induced rage night, will the UK politicians and law enforcement or the intelligence services be able to do anything about that? So IMHO the premise isn't implausible at all. These things happen all over the world, all those civil war torn countries are fighting with real military grade weapons being shipped to them from Europe, Russia and USA. At this very time CIA is apparently trying to orchestrate something like that in Venezuela, it's not even secret, Trump recently authorized covert CIA operation in Venezuela and Trump's claim that Venezuela is doin something similar in USA isn't implausible either: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/us/politics/trump-covert-cia-action-venezuela.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/us/politics/trump-covert-... Once you have enough distrust in the society, others can do a lot of things to that society.
graemep 1y ago
If you parse that sentence a bit more carefully, and read the article at a whole it is arguing that other democracies, and the US in particular, have a conflict that could credibly escalate to a civil war. It is an article by an individual academic not "The LSE" - the disclaimer at the top says "All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of LSE British Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics and Political Science." It is not even clear whether the author is endorsing his views, or merely reporting those of former diplomat Barbara Woodword who has written a book on civil wars.

SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago

> Elon Musk’s comment about the inevitability of civil war in Britain might have been flippant. It is IMHO a mistake to view Elon Musk’s comment as merely "flippant". We should take the risk from "Elon Musk’s comments stoking civil war", and his personal platform to amplify radicalism and propagandise hatred, very seriously. Even if the civil war that he fantasises about is currently a nonsense.

mytailorisrich 1y ago
Sometimes what people predict is referred to as "nonsense" because they manage to infer things based on trends over a longer term than others who can only see what's right in front of them. In this case, Musk (and many others) only extrapolate the trends at play for 50+ years to their logical conclusion, and actually I'd say that denying this it's becoming more and more a case of ostrich syndrome.
- SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
  I'm not saying you're always wrong in the abstract "sometimes" that you pose. But I stand what I said about Mr Musk specifically in this case.
  - mytailorisrich 1y ago
    Well, you also qualify your "nonsense" claim by "currently". This is the point, IMHO. No-one claims that civil war is imminent but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
      > but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories. I think this too is utter nonsense. Too much of the twitter brainrot. But it does highlight the dangers that this poses, that people can easily fall into it as you have done. So, Mr Musk's incitement is a danger to you and others. Even if the "civil war" remains someone's fantasy.
      - mytailorisrich 1y ago
        [flagged]
        SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
        > cannot simply be dismissed as "utter nonsense" and "twitter brainrot". I refer you to my earlier statement where I did just that. > .... non-European immigration ... the rise of Islam ... you need to ask how this ends. yep, standard-issue brainrot. edit in case it's not clear, the burden of proof is on the person making the unsubstantiated lurid claims about "civil war".
        mytailorisrich 1y ago
        HN is supposed to foster discussion and curiosity. I presented arguments to attempt to show that what Musk wrote is a least a plausible scenario (and the LSE link shows that this is taken seriously), whatever will actually happen (so "inevitable" is probably the interesting aspect to debate), whatever I think of Musk, and whatever I think of those issues in general. You keep being dangerously close to simply trolling...
- beardyw 1y ago
  > Sometimes what people predict is referred to as "nonsense" because they manage to infer things based on trends over a longer term than others Or it's just wishful thinking. Musk's comments generally suggest he has no idea about the UK.
  - graemep 1y ago
    > Or it's just wishful thinking. Musk's comments generally suggest he has no idea about the UK. Like a lot of Americans (and, unfortunately, quite a lot of British people) he assumes the UK is far more similar to the US than it really is.
- alimw 1y ago
  What do you think Musk is trying to do here? His purpose is not coolly to assess the probability of a certain outcome (nobody asked him to do that!) but rather to make that outcome more probable.
  - cosmicgadget 1y ago
    Imho it is more likely that he is using it to consolidate a voting bloc. Much like how all the partisan propaganda in the US of civil war convinced right wingers to rally around Trump and left wingers to not take it seriously. If you think that they will try to overthrow your way of life, you'll simultaneously announce you are prepared to defend yourself and - more importantly - you'll vote for whatever resembles your way of life. Elon doesn't profit from chaos, he is just using psychological manipulation to empower his allies.
    - alimw 1y ago
      In the UK at least, talk of civil war by right-wingers is intended not to put fear into their friends but to excite them. As they envisage, it's they who will be starting it. Yes that will act to consolidate a voting bloc for Musk's allies. If it were additionally to cause chaos that would be a bonus. Right-wingers in the US love nothing more than to point to a situation in a foreign country as a warning of the perils of leftism. Usually they just make shit up but of course it's better not to have to.
- tastyface 1y ago
  If they're so terrified of being "replaced," maybe white supremacists should try having more kids instead of inciting race wars.
- graemep 1y ago
  > n this case, Musk (and many others) only extrapolate the trends at play for 50+ years to their logical conclusion What 50+ year trends? Less racism?

mamonster 1y ago

>On April 21 2021, in a letter also signed by a group of retired officers, a former officer in France’s Ground Force, Jean-Pierre Fabre-Bernadac, made a stark warning. Published in the magazine Valuers Actuelles it denounced the growing chaos of French life, and warned of ‘racial’ and ‘civil’ war if nothing is done to prevent it,. Ah yes, 21st of April, date of the failed Algiers putsch against De Gaulle.

mytailorisrich 1y ago
And interestingly, in France this is all a continuation of that period...

tim333 1y ago

As a Brit I'm pretty confused as to how we should split into two teams in order to fight each other and what we are supposed to be fighting about. Perhaps Musk could give us better instructions at to what this war is supposed to be over and which side I'm on? His views on the UK all seem oddly out of touch and I get the impression a lot of info comes from people on X/twitter who don't live in the UK.

mrtksn 1y ago
You don't need to split into two equal sides to have a civil war. You can start having terrorist organizations that are able to obtain weapons with help from these billionaires to do acts that serve their agenda. They can fly people to private military companies for warfare training. Not necessarily everyone will be fighting everyone, you can end up having an organization doing very bad things and some of the population that has grievances(real or induced through information shaping) supporting it. At first the non-supporting side will demand to suspend some liberties to fix the security issues which very easily(the every bit of controversy or imperfection will do that) can deepen the divide and increase the support for the other side. The tenser it gets the more extreme politicians will raise and a feedback loop will be formed that will tear down the country. For now they are just shaping the information landscape to convince people that certain very bad things are happening and that they need to take action but let's say they start providing the material and the training, who's going to stop them? They happen to be close allies of a much larger country's administration that built a reputation for disdain towards the rule of law. If a Billionaire finances the shipping a few thousand rifles and explosive to UK in drug induced rage night, will the UK politicians and law enforcement or the intelligence services be able to do anything about that? So IMHO the premise isn't implausible at all. These things happen all over the world, all those civil war torn countries are fighting with real military grade weapons being shipped to them from Europe, Russia and USA. At this very time CIA is apparently trying to orchestrate something like that in Venezuela, it's not even secret, Trump recently authorized covert CIA operation in Venezuela and Trump's claim that Venezuela is doin something similar in USA isn't implausible either: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/us/politics/trump-covert-cia-action-venezuela.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/us/politics/trump-covert-... Once you have enough distrust in the society, others can do a lot of things to that society.

graemep 1y ago

If you parse that sentence a bit more carefully, and read the article at a whole it is arguing that other democracies, and the US in particular, have a conflict that could credibly escalate to a civil war. It is an article by an individual academic not "The LSE" - the disclaimer at the top says "All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of LSE British Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics and Political Science." It is not even clear whether the author is endorsing his views, or merely reporting those of former diplomat Barbara Woodword who has written a book on civil wars.