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That's sort of Taleb's whole thing: most successful investors just happened to be riding a wave and cannot claim any sort of genius. The Black Swan event is alw
by causal 11mo ago
That's sort of Taleb's whole thing: most successful investors just happened to be riding a wave and cannot claim any sort of genius. The Black Swan event is always explained away as some kind of environmental blip and investment success explained as the inevitable outcome of hard work- when in fact it is Black Swans that are inevitable and hard-working investors are just a background constant.
- danielmarkbruce 11mo agoWhile what you are saying is almost certainly true, I'm actually talking about something else - people who did good work and then stop doing good work in fields where good work = good decisions. It's easy to stop doing the work and keep making the decisions and no one is the wiser for years.