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How much are you ready to bet against Elon's plans to scale up Starlink v3 for GPUs? Starlink v3 already has a 60M length solar array, so they're already solvin
by paulsutter 11mo ago
How much are you ready to bet against Elon's plans to scale up Starlink v3 for GPUs? Starlink v3 already has a 60M length solar array, so they're already solving dissipation for that size. Assume linear scaling to many thousands of modules.
From https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1984249048107508061 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1984249048107508061:
"Simply scaling up Starlink V3 satellites, which have high speed laser links would work. SpaceX will be doing this."
From https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1984868748378157312 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1984868748378157312:
"Starship could deliver 100GW/year to high Earth orbit within 4 to 5 years if we can solve the other parts of the equation. 100TW/year is possible from a lunar base producing solar-powered AI satellites locally and accelerating them to escape velocity with a mass driver."
- ceejayoz 11mo ago> How much are you ready to bet against Elon's plans to scale up Starlink v3 for GPUs? I'm sure they'll be ready right after the androids and the robotaxi and the autonomous LA-NYC summoning. > Starlink v3 already has a 60M length solar array, so they're already solving dissipation for that size. Starlink v3 doesn't exist yet. They're renders at this point. Full-sized v2s haven't even flown yet, just mass simulators. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Satellite_revisions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Satellite_revisions
- paulsutter 11mo agoI love your enthusiasm Please post where you are creating the bet. You should make a lot of money from it
- ceejayoz 11mo agoBetting on "Elon misses a timeline" or "Elon waters down previous plans" is tough, because no one wants to take the other side. It's guaranteed.
- paulsutter 11mo agoSpacex turns the impossible into the late. Been a shareholder since 2008 You didn’t say it would be late, you said it’s impossible. Setup the bet sir
- ceejayoz 11mo agoAt no point did I say it was impossible.
- paulsutter 11mo ago(facepalm) Perhaps you could reflect back on whether you were saying anything at all You’re obviously intelligent. You could have bigger impact if you had the courage to be less cynical
- ceejayoz 11mo ago> Perhaps you could reflect back on whether you were saying anything at all. Sure. AI datacenters IN SPAAAAAAAACE probably fall in the same vaporware category a good portion of Musk claims fall into. More DOGE/Hyperloop than Falcon 9/Tesla. Impossible? No. Probable? Also no.