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Burry was right about a scam. AI is not a scam. His short positions could simply be a conviction on rate of growth. If he was truly shorting it into collapse, t

by ivape 11mo ago

Burry was right about a scam. AI is not a scam. His short positions could simply be a conviction on rate of growth. If he was truly shorting it into collapse, then I'd say he's misguided here. There are also other factors that affect Nvidia. Any move on Taiwan can collapse Nvidia's price down to zero. Hyperscalers can also shift orders over to AMD, Intel, ARM and Broadcom. This is inevitable, but you can't be too early with this. Lastly. I don't know how technical Burry is. If you showed him LLM tech in 2017, would he have recognized it? There are things about this tech that he may not even recognize even if you showed it to him. You can literally show some people full generated video and they still wouldn't get how much compute it takes to do that. Finally, the world is not just a giant Tulip bubble. There's actually trillions of dollars moving around every day and people innovate and consume. It's not just a giant Ponzi scheme waiting to collapse. -- As for Palantir, as many have mentioned, I would not consider shorting Palantir until year three of this administration. Palantir may lose favoritism with the next administration. Maybe. As we witnessed with the MAG7 CEOs, these people are prepared to change their entire value set to win the business of those in power.

zahlman 11mo ago
> If he was truly shorting it into collapse, then I'd say he's misguided here. He's not shorting this time. He has put options. This is a "short position" i.e. one that behaves inversely to the stock price, but his downside is limited (at the expense that he pays the full downside up front, and can lose money even if the stock goes down, if it doesn't go down by enough). TFA says the options are on "roughly 1 million NVDA shares worth $187 million", implying NVDA was around $187 at the time of acquisition. That more or less tracks with the September 26 close, and this was apparently disclosed in a September 30 filing. NVDA is currently above $200. Similarly, he would have options on PLTR bought when that was also somewhere around $182 (roughly matching the September 30 close); even with today's crash, the stock is hovering around $190 as I write this. So depending on the duration of the options there's a pretty decent chance he's going to lose money, and depending on the strike price it might well be the entire premium. As far as I can tell, neither of these is disclosed in the filing.
_f9cu 11mo ago
AI is a scam, from eye of an computer engineer. Its not a scam, from eye of others. AI is not the only way to address challenge that it aims to solve.

by ivape 11mo ago

zahlman 11mo ago

> If he was truly shorting it into collapse, then I'd say he's misguided here. He's not shorting this time. He has put options. This is a "short position" i.e. one that behaves inversely to the stock price, but his downside is limited (at the expense that he pays the full downside up front, and can lose money even if the stock goes down, if it doesn't go down by enough). TFA says the options are on "roughly 1 million NVDA shares worth $187 million", implying NVDA was around $187 at the time of acquisition. That more or less tracks with the September 26 close, and this was apparently disclosed in a September 30 filing. NVDA is currently above $200. Similarly, he would have options on PLTR bought when that was also somewhere around $182 (roughly matching the September 30 close); even with today's crash, the stock is hovering around $190 as I write this. So depending on the duration of the options there's a pretty decent chance he's going to lose money, and depending on the strike price it might well be the entire premium. As far as I can tell, neither of these is disclosed in the filing.

_f9cu 11mo ago

AI is a scam, from eye of an computer engineer. Its not a scam, from eye of others. AI is not the only way to address challenge that it aims to solve.