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The problem with these kinds of bets is the Fed Put. That's the invisible force levitating stocks. I don't really see that changing unless/until the country gen
by sfblah 11mo ago
The problem with these kinds of bets is the Fed Put. That's the invisible force levitating stocks. I don't really see that changing unless/until the country genuinely enters a debt or currency crisis. The path is unsustainable, but they'll keep it going as long as they possibly can.
- ProjectArcturis 11mo agoWhen Trump replaces Powell next year, the odds of the Fed doing something other than bathing a crisis in liquidity goes way up.
- huhtenberg 11mo agoTo add some context - Powell's 4-year term ends January 31, 2026. Whether he is reconfirmed by the Senate for another term is an open question.
- ProjectArcturis 11mo agoUhh... Powell's term as chairman ends in May 2026. His term as a board member ends Jan 2028. Senate confirmation is irrelevant because Trump will not nominate him again for anything.
- huhtenberg 11mo agoBah, you are correct [1]. I got my date from the Wikipedia page and apparently it's wrong. [1] https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48233 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48233 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell#Federal_Reserve_Chairman_(2018%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell#Federal_Reserve_...
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- impossiblefork 11mo agoOnly measured in USD though.
- candiddevmike 11mo agoDoes anyone else remember the conspiracy theories around the "plunge protection team"?
- tanseydavid 11mo agoIt is not a theory.
- blitzar 11mo agoIs it a conspiracy if they do it?
- mindslight 11mo agoIt's even worse than that, as Palantir is a Party business. Betting against that is like betting whether specific people were going to be airbrushed out of photos in Stalin's Russia. And if you have that kind of insider insight, why short instead of making a positive bet on whomever the new Party darlings are going to be? Maybe it makes sense based on the dynamic of the Party needing to run through scapegoats? One could possibly see that Palantir is about to be thrown under the bus, but only connected insiders will know who its exact replacement will be? Personally I don't see signs of Palantir being close to the chopping block though.
- WheatMillington 11mo ago[flagged]
- mindslight 11mo agoDo you have any specific criticisms?
- blitzar 11mo agoThe fed signaled they are not cutting much further - almost a green light for these kinds of bets.
- overfeed 11mo agoThe fed can take nore active measures than just managing rates. I lost some money by unexpectedly finding myself on the opposite side of US government policy - and dollar-firehose - during COVID. Shorting travel-related stocks can be a losing bet if the government wants to "shore up" share prices by directly injecting hitherto unheard of amounts of liquidity into the market.
- tucnak 11mo agoAt least you got to feel clever when you made that bet against the travel companies :-)
- overfeed 11mo agoI had early "insider" info on COVID admissions from a Pulmonologist spouse, and an understanding of exponential growth (doubling every few days). I took the initiative to be the first person to WFH in my org, which I did as a pre-emptive quarantine as I was at risk of being infected: several of my spouse's colleagues subsequently got infected. Unfortunately, I didn't link my WFH circumstances that with investing in Zoom.
- JumpCrisscross 11mo ago> problem with these kinds of bets is the Fed Put This is an argument against a market wide short bet. The Fed could raise the market while Nvidia still loses its premium. The larger risk is political proximity, particularly with Palantir.