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Tesla's strategy is bad. Build something that works first then optimize. They optimized for cost first and may never get it to work.

consumer451 1y ago
That's an interesting take. So, classic premature optimization for scale?
- xnx 1y ago
  Yes. A normal approach is: 1) Make it work 2) Make it right(/safe) 3) Make it fast/cheap
  - consumer451 1y ago
    The surprising thing to me is when you look at Starlink, there was a very expensive blocker there: consumer phased array. Prior to Starlink, I think the cheapest consumer unit was around $50k. That did not stop Musk from charging ahead. Is there some technological thing about LiDAR that would prevent similar cost reductions? Or, is it just the philosophical difference over pre-mapping, and not doing so?
    - xnx 1y ago
      LIDAR has seen many cost reductions as capabilities continue to increase. I don't know the area well enough to speculate how much optimization might be left. > Or, is it just the philosophical difference over pre-mapping, and not doing so? It seems to be a "burn the ships" style bet that the Tesla engineers will get to camera-only self driving first without having ever relied on LIDAR. It's equally as likely (or moreso) that Waymo could get there first with better ground truth data from the LIDAR.
      - tim333 1y ago
        >A LiDAR unit, for instance, used to cost 30,000 yuan (about $4,100), but now it costs only around 1,000 yuan (about $138) — a dramatic decrease, said Li. https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/20/lidars-wicked-cost-drop/ https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/20/lidars-wicked-cost-drop... at $138 I'm not sure there's much need to go cheaper.
    - BobaFloutist 1y ago
      I think it's that with Tesla he had hardware to sell (and maybe already sold?) to existing customers with the contractual promise that they'd get self-driving as soon as TESLA cracked it. Retrofitting LIDAR into all those already sold cars would have been pretty expensive at the time, and the more he doubles down the more monstrously expensive it'll get. With Starlink, there was no baseline consumer product to sell before getting it working.
      - consumer451 1y ago
        Yeah, that makes perfectly rational sense to me. But, still disappointing as Musk is one of the few CEOs in a position to admit miscalculations, and pivot. The only thing I am left with is uncharitable, and it involves online ego.
unglaublich 1y ago
Exactly, and the Waymo sensors are practically a superset of those of Tesla, so with all the acquired data, then can build models that slowly phase out the need for Lidars.
tim333 1y ago
It seems to me Tesla's mistake was over optimism about AI. Musk always seemed to believe they'd have it cracked the following year but it seems to be taking its time.
- consumer451 1y ago
  If I recall correctly, at the last Tesla AI Day, he said ~"FSD basically requires AGI." There is a lot to unwrap there, but that's what he said. I believe at that moment he was in ML talent recruitment mode, and yet he admitted the true scale of this issue that Tesla faces given the vision-only direction.

consumer451 1y ago

That's an interesting take. So, classic premature optimization for scale?

xnx 1y ago
Yes. A normal approach is: 1) Make it work 2) Make it right(/safe) 3) Make it fast/cheap
- consumer451 1y ago
  The surprising thing to me is when you look at Starlink, there was a very expensive blocker there: consumer phased array. Prior to Starlink, I think the cheapest consumer unit was around $50k. That did not stop Musk from charging ahead. Is there some technological thing about LiDAR that would prevent similar cost reductions? Or, is it just the philosophical difference over pre-mapping, and not doing so?
  - xnx 1y ago
    LIDAR has seen many cost reductions as capabilities continue to increase. I don't know the area well enough to speculate how much optimization might be left. > Or, is it just the philosophical difference over pre-mapping, and not doing so? It seems to be a "burn the ships" style bet that the Tesla engineers will get to camera-only self driving first without having ever relied on LIDAR. It's equally as likely (or moreso) that Waymo could get there first with better ground truth data from the LIDAR.
    - tim333 1y ago
      >A LiDAR unit, for instance, used to cost 30,000 yuan (about $4,100), but now it costs only around 1,000 yuan (about $138) — a dramatic decrease, said Li. https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/20/lidars-wicked-cost-drop/ https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/20/lidars-wicked-cost-drop... at $138 I'm not sure there's much need to go cheaper.
  - BobaFloutist 1y ago
    I think it's that with Tesla he had hardware to sell (and maybe already sold?) to existing customers with the contractual promise that they'd get self-driving as soon as TESLA cracked it. Retrofitting LIDAR into all those already sold cars would have been pretty expensive at the time, and the more he doubles down the more monstrously expensive it'll get. With Starlink, there was no baseline consumer product to sell before getting it working.
    - consumer451 1y ago
      Yeah, that makes perfectly rational sense to me. But, still disappointing as Musk is one of the few CEOs in a position to admit miscalculations, and pivot. The only thing I am left with is uncharitable, and it involves online ego.

unglaublich 1y ago

Exactly, and the Waymo sensors are practically a superset of those of Tesla, so with all the acquired data, then can build models that slowly phase out the need for Lidars.

tim333 1y ago

It seems to me Tesla's mistake was over optimism about AI. Musk always seemed to believe they'd have it cracked the following year but it seems to be taking its time.

consumer451 1y ago
If I recall correctly, at the last Tesla AI Day, he said ~"FSD basically requires AGI." There is a lot to unwrap there, but that's what he said. I believe at that moment he was in ML talent recruitment mode, and yet he admitted the true scale of this issue that Tesla faces given the vision-only direction.