3 ms·
That "factor of 17" comes from an interest rate model that is unrelated to AI.
by tim333 1y ago
That "factor of 17" comes from an interest rate model that is unrelated to AI.
- lucaslazarus 1y agoThis is not true. Obviously the underlying effect is real but not nearly to this scale—for instance, neither the CPI nor the S&P500 are even remotely close to 17x higher than they were at the turn of the millennium.
- tim333 1y agoThe source is a report written by Julien Garran based on the difference between actual interest rates and an idea of what they should be called the Wicksell spread. There's a summary here https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ai-bubble-is-17-times-the-size-of-the-dot-com-frenzy-this-analyst-argues-046e7c5c https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ai-bubble-is-17-times-... He figured there was a credit bubble like that around the time of the dot com bubble and now but the calculation if purely based on interest rates and the money can go into any assets - property, stocks, crypto etc. It's not AI specific. He explains it here https://youtu.be/uz2EqmqNNlE https://youtu.be/uz2EqmqNNlE The Wicksell spread seems to have come from Wicksell's proposed 'natural rate of interest' detailed in his 1898 book https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knut_Wicksell#Interest_and_Prices,_1898 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knut_Wicksell#Interest_and_Pri...
- lucaslazarus 1y agoI see, thank you!