5 ms·

Funny how this guy thinks he knows exactly what's up with AI, and how "others" are "partly right and wrong." Takes a bit of hubris to be so confident. I certai

Funny how this guy thinks he knows exactly what's up with AI, and how "others" are "partly right and wrong." Takes a bit of hubris to be so confident. I certainly don't have the hubris to think I know exactly how it's all going to go down.

fragmede 1y ago
But do you have the audacity to be wrong?
- indigodaddy 1y ago
  Yeah that's interesting, good perspective
confirmmesenpai 1y ago
takes a lot of hubris to be sure it's a bubble too.
- hitarpetar 1y ago
  that's why I always identify the central position of any argument and take it. that way noone can accuse me of hubris
  - yunnpp 1y ago
    Spoken like a wise man.
  - JohnnyMarcone 1y ago
    You can take a position without being sure about it. e.g. "I'm at 70% that AI is a bubble."
    - hitarpetar 1y ago
      id probably go with 50% actually
ivape 1y ago
The problem is that the bubble people are so unimaginative, similar to Krugman, that those who have any inkling of an imagination can literally feel like visionaries compared to them. I know I’m describing Dunning-Krueger, but so be it, the bubble people are very very wrong. It’s like, man, they really are unable to imagine a very real future.
- teaearlgraycold 1y ago
  Almost everyone I hear calling our AI hype machine a bubble aren't claiming AI is a short term fluke. They're saying the marketing doesn't match the reality. The companies don't have the revenue they need. The model performance is hitting the top of the S curve. Essentially, this is the first big wave - but it'll be a while before the sea level rises permanently.
  - bdangubic 1y ago
    > marketing doesn't match the reality. true for every marketing ever
    - an0malous 1y ago
      It’s not just a marketing stunt, it’s a trillion dollar grift that VCs are going to try to dump off onto the public markets when the reality doesn’t catch up to the hype fast enough
- bccdee 1y ago
  I find the argument for the bubble to be extremely straightforward. Currently, investment into AI exceeds the dot-com bubble by a factor of 17. Even in the dot-com era, the early internet was already changing media and commerce in fundamental ways. November is the three-year anniversary of ChatGPT. How much economic value are they actually creating? How many people are purchasing AI-generated goods? How much are people paying for AI-provided services? The value created here would have to exceed what the internet was generating in 2000 by a factor of 17 (which seems excessive to me) to even reach parity with the dot-com bubble. "But think where it'll be in 5 years"—sure, and let's extrapolate that based on where it is now compared to where it was 3 years ago. New models present diminishing returns. 3.5 was groudbreaking; 4 was a big step forward; 5 is incremental. I won't deny that LLMs are useful, and they are certainly much more productized now than they were 3 years ago. But the magnitude of our collective investment in AI requires that a huge watershed moment be just around the corner, and that makes no sense. The watershed moment was 3 years ago. The first LLMs created a huge amount of potential. Now we're realizing those gains, and we're seeing some real value, but things are also tapering off. Surely we will have another big breakthrough some day—a further era of AI which brings us closer to something like AGI—but there's just no reason to assume AGI will crop up in 2027, and nothing less that that can produce the ROI that such enormous valuations will eventually, inexorably, demand.
Razengan 1y ago
How about a vague prediction that covers all scenarios? XD *ahem* It's gonna be like every other tool/societal paradigm shift like the smartphone before this, and planes/trains/cars/ships/factories/electricity/oil/steam/iron/bronze etc. before that: • It'll coalesce into the hands of a few corporations. • Idiots in governments won't know what the fuck to do with it. • Lazy/loud civvies will get lazier/louder through it. • There'll be some pockets of individual creativity and freedom, like open source projects, that will take varying amounts of time to catch on in popularity or fade away to obscurity. • One or two killer apps that seem obvious but nobody thought of, will come out of nowhere from some nobody. • Some groups will be quietly working away using it to enable the next shift, whether they know it or not. • Aliens will land turning everything upside down. (I didn't say when)
- Razengan 1y ago
  Forgot: • Militaries will want to kill everyone with it.

fragmede 1y ago

But do you have the audacity to be wrong?

indigodaddy 1y ago
Yeah that's interesting, good perspective

confirmmesenpai 1y ago

takes a lot of hubris to be sure it's a bubble too.

hitarpetar 1y ago
that's why I always identify the central position of any argument and take it. that way noone can accuse me of hubris
- yunnpp 1y ago
  Spoken like a wise man.
- JohnnyMarcone 1y ago
  You can take a position without being sure about it. e.g. "I'm at 70% that AI is a bubble."
  - hitarpetar 1y ago
    id probably go with 50% actually

ivape 1y ago

The problem is that the bubble people are so unimaginative, similar to Krugman, that those who have any inkling of an imagination can literally feel like visionaries compared to them. I know I’m describing Dunning-Krueger, but so be it, the bubble people are very very wrong. It’s like, man, they really are unable to imagine a very real future.

teaearlgraycold 1y ago
Almost everyone I hear calling our AI hype machine a bubble aren't claiming AI is a short term fluke. They're saying the marketing doesn't match the reality. The companies don't have the revenue they need. The model performance is hitting the top of the S curve. Essentially, this is the first big wave - but it'll be a while before the sea level rises permanently.
- bdangubic 1y ago
  > marketing doesn't match the reality. true for every marketing ever
  - an0malous 1y ago
    It’s not just a marketing stunt, it’s a trillion dollar grift that VCs are going to try to dump off onto the public markets when the reality doesn’t catch up to the hype fast enough
bccdee 1y ago
I find the argument for the bubble to be extremely straightforward. Currently, investment into AI exceeds the dot-com bubble by a factor of 17. Even in the dot-com era, the early internet was already changing media and commerce in fundamental ways. November is the three-year anniversary of ChatGPT. How much economic value are they actually creating? How many people are purchasing AI-generated goods? How much are people paying for AI-provided services? The value created here would have to exceed what the internet was generating in 2000 by a factor of 17 (which seems excessive to me) to even reach parity with the dot-com bubble. "But think where it'll be in 5 years"—sure, and let's extrapolate that based on where it is now compared to where it was 3 years ago. New models present diminishing returns. 3.5 was groudbreaking; 4 was a big step forward; 5 is incremental. I won't deny that LLMs are useful, and they are certainly much more productized now than they were 3 years ago. But the magnitude of our collective investment in AI requires that a huge watershed moment be just around the corner, and that makes no sense. The watershed moment was 3 years ago. The first LLMs created a huge amount of potential. Now we're realizing those gains, and we're seeing some real value, but things are also tapering off. Surely we will have another big breakthrough some day—a further era of AI which brings us closer to something like AGI—but there's just no reason to assume AGI will crop up in 2027, and nothing less that that can produce the ROI that such enormous valuations will eventually, inexorably, demand.

Razengan 1y ago

How about a vague prediction that covers all scenarios? XD *ahem* It's gonna be like every other tool/societal paradigm shift like the smartphone before this, and planes/trains/cars/ships/factories/electricity/oil/steam/iron/bronze etc. before that: • It'll coalesce into the hands of a few corporations. • Idiots in governments won't know what the fuck to do with it. • Lazy/loud civvies will get lazier/louder through it. • There'll be some pockets of individual creativity and freedom, like open source projects, that will take varying amounts of time to catch on in popularity or fade away to obscurity. • One or two killer apps that seem obvious but nobody thought of, will come out of nowhere from some nobody. • Some groups will be quietly working away using it to enable the next shift, whether they know it or not. • Aliens will land turning everything upside down. (I didn't say when)

Razengan 1y ago
Forgot: • Militaries will want to kill everyone with it.