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> Let's actually be generous and assume that all parties involved did the math and some due diligence and are not just idiots Economic history strongly suggest
by dontlikeyoueith 11mo ago
> Let's actually be generous and assume that all parties involved did the math and some due diligence and are not just idiots
Economic history strongly suggests this would be a bad assumption.
- jstummbillig 11mo agoHow do you mean? Western economic history is, on average, one of success. So on average, that's a pretty good assumption.
- ben_w 11mo agoWestern economic history is 75% of businesses failing in the first 15 years, and the market still growing because the last 25% has outsized rewards. More pertinently, we have a long history of people buying into bubbles only for them to crash hard, no matter how often people tell them "past performance is not a guarantee of future growth" or whatever the legally mandated phrase is for the supply of investment opportunities to the public where you live. Sometimes the bubbles do useful things before they burst, like the railways. Sometimes the response to the burst creates a bunch of social safety nets, sometimes it leads to wars, sometimes both (e.g. Great Depression).