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This looks quite concerning imo. We all know this is a bubble. When the transformer implosion happens, you can be sure that OpenAI will be ground zero. All thes
by netdevphoenix 11mo ago
This looks quite concerning imo. We all know this is a bubble. When the transformer implosion happens, you can be sure that OpenAI will be ground zero. All these investors feeding OpenAI and all these adjacent companies exposing themselves to OpenAI will suffer huge losses. Everyone is chasing growth so hard that they are making questionable choices regarding returns from a far future that may never come. And let's be clear, the future that is going to pay this off is a future where this tech or a direct successor to this tech brings about a level of general learning skills and autonomy that should be pretty close to a third revolution. Anything else is massive loves for all of these companies.
- lm28469 11mo agoLike in politics, all they care about is getting out before shtf and pass the bag to the next sucker while making $$$ in the meantime
- empath75 11mo agoYou are stating a lot of things as fact that aren't really supported. We don't know this is a bubble, we don't know that there will be a transformer implosion, whatever that means, we don't know that OpenAI would ground zero if this is a bubble and it pops, etc..
- indigodaddy 11mo agoNo one ever knows before these things happen. These predictions are obviously always conjecture, they can’t be stated as fact, ever— at best you can give some supporting evidence often based on similar prior art
- indigodaddy 11mo agoloves is typo for losses I assume?
- netdevphoenix 11mo agoYes, sorry. I can't edit the post anymore
- treis 11mo agoNah this is a repeat of Google's early days. They built storage at such a scale that it was hard for anyone else to compete in anything that required storage like email. OpenAI is doing the same with compute. They're going to have more compute than everyone else combined. It will give them the scale and warchest to drive everyone else out. Every AI company is going to end up being a wrapper around them. And OpenAI will slowly take that value too either via acquisition or cloning successful products.
- kilroy123 11mo agoGoogle, too, has a lot of compute. Not to mention the chips to power the compute.
- pityJuke 11mo agoAnd they own the compute, as opposed to renting some of it. And they have the engineers to utilise that compute.
- gizajob 11mo agoIf only everyone in the world had compute in their pockets or on their desk…
- sipjca 11mo agoseems like a flawed assumption when the cost of tokens -> 0
- mdasen 11mo agoBut is OpenAI building that compute or are they renting it? OpenAI and Anthropic are signing large deals with Google and Amazon for compute resources, but ultimately it means that Google and Amazon will own a ton of compute. Is OpenAI paying Amazon's cap ex just so Amazon can invest and end up owning what OpenAI needs over the long term? For those paying Google, are they giving Google the money Google needs to further invest in their TPUs giving them a huge advantage?
- 11mo ago
- lizknope 11mo agoAre we at the Pets.com stage of the bubble yet? I started working in 1997 at the height of the dot com bubble. I thought it would go on forever but the second half of 2000 and 2001 was rough. I know a lot of people designing AI accelerator chips. Everyone over 45 thinks we are in an AI bubble. It's the younger people that think growth is infinite. I told them to diversify from their company stock but we'll see if they have listened after the bubble pops