4 ms·
Of course linear growth is nonsensical. But if you are plotting into the future its a damn sight less nonsensical than exponential unless you have very strong f
by ggm 1y ago
Of course linear growth is nonsensical. But if you are plotting into the future its a damn sight less nonsensical than exponential unless you have very strong foundations, and for the 1-2-3 year projection it's pretty much ok. Anyone who thinks they know trends 5+ years out is a loony.
And as I said, thats ignoring market cycles, the debt overhang in the economy, all kinds of problems.
- anon291 1y agoLinear and exponential growth look the same in short term horizons depending on the exponent. However, exponential growth is strictly superior as some things can grow very fast if the exponent is high enough. We saw that with covid. The exponential assumption is correct. For the situations you are discussing, where the exponent is low, the exponential pattern correctly captures that.