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Linear growth is nonsensical. Growth is driven ultimately by consumption. Consumption is driven by population. The population either grows or declines in an exp

Linear growth is nonsensical. Growth is driven ultimately by consumption. Consumption is driven by population. The population either grows or declines in an exponential fashion. That's how this works.

deleted 1y ago
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darth_avocado 1y ago
Consumption is not driven by population alone, it’s driven by population with a spending power. And from what I’m seeing, that’s shrinking. The article talks about how tech companies are growing revenues with fewer and fewer employees. An important question to ask there is: is that a good thing?
- anon291 1y ago
  Then the shrinking is exponential as well. That's the point. Population grows or shrinks according to an exponential curve. If the exponent is one, then things are stable. If it's less than one, then things will experience exponential decline, which is different than linear decline since it never reaches 0. If it's more than one, then things experience exponential growth. Most problems in life come down to misunderstanding exponents.
jgord 1y ago
Basically true, but there are other potential sources of growth : - using technology to unlock cheaper energy - using technology to automate boring manual labor - using technology to extend healthy lifespan Given the demographics collapse and ageing population in most 'developed' countries, we need to look at these other ways of generating economic growth.
eru 1y ago
Have you looked at the history of the population of various cities, countries or even the globe recently?
- anon291 1y ago
  It doesn't matter. Even the degrowth due to declining population is exponential in nature. That was the point, population grows exponentially or decreases exponentially. There is no such thing as linear population growth or decline.
  - eru 1y ago
    Good luck fitting an exponential to the table of population over time in eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco Of course, you can do it piecewise, but you can also fit a piecewise linear curve (or even a step function) to any graph. Or fit an exponential to the graph in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population Just eyeballing the global data from 1950 to 2020 it looks like linear growth would be a much better fit than exponential. You might also want to look at logistic growth, see eg https://sites.math.duke.edu/education/ccp/materials/diffeq/logistic/logi1.html https://sites.math.duke.edu/education/ccp/materials/diffeq/l...
ggm 1y ago
Of course linear growth is nonsensical. But if you are plotting into the future its a damn sight less nonsensical than exponential unless you have very strong foundations, and for the 1-2-3 year projection it's pretty much ok. Anyone who thinks they know trends 5+ years out is a loony. And as I said, thats ignoring market cycles, the debt overhang in the economy, all kinds of problems.
- anon291 1y ago
  Linear and exponential growth look the same in short term horizons depending on the exponent. However, exponential growth is strictly superior as some things can grow very fast if the exponent is high enough. We saw that with covid. The exponential assumption is correct. For the situations you are discussing, where the exponent is low, the exponential pattern correctly captures that.

deleted 1y ago

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darth_avocado 1y ago

Consumption is not driven by population alone, it’s driven by population with a spending power. And from what I’m seeing, that’s shrinking. The article talks about how tech companies are growing revenues with fewer and fewer employees. An important question to ask there is: is that a good thing?

anon291 1y ago
Then the shrinking is exponential as well. That's the point. Population grows or shrinks according to an exponential curve. If the exponent is one, then things are stable. If it's less than one, then things will experience exponential decline, which is different than linear decline since it never reaches 0. If it's more than one, then things experience exponential growth. Most problems in life come down to misunderstanding exponents.

jgord 1y ago

Basically true, but there are other potential sources of growth : - using technology to unlock cheaper energy - using technology to automate boring manual labor - using technology to extend healthy lifespan Given the demographics collapse and ageing population in most 'developed' countries, we need to look at these other ways of generating economic growth.

eru 1y ago

Have you looked at the history of the population of various cities, countries or even the globe recently?

anon291 1y ago
It doesn't matter. Even the degrowth due to declining population is exponential in nature. That was the point, population grows exponentially or decreases exponentially. There is no such thing as linear population growth or decline.
- eru 1y ago
  Good luck fitting an exponential to the table of population over time in eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco Of course, you can do it piecewise, but you can also fit a piecewise linear curve (or even a step function) to any graph. Or fit an exponential to the graph in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population Just eyeballing the global data from 1950 to 2020 it looks like linear growth would be a much better fit than exponential. You might also want to look at logistic growth, see eg https://sites.math.duke.edu/education/ccp/materials/diffeq/logistic/logi1.html https://sites.math.duke.edu/education/ccp/materials/diffeq/l...

ggm 1y ago

Of course linear growth is nonsensical. But if you are plotting into the future its a damn sight less nonsensical than exponential unless you have very strong foundations, and for the 1-2-3 year projection it's pretty much ok. Anyone who thinks they know trends 5+ years out is a loony. And as I said, thats ignoring market cycles, the debt overhang in the economy, all kinds of problems.

anon291 1y ago
Linear and exponential growth look the same in short term horizons depending on the exponent. However, exponential growth is strictly superior as some things can grow very fast if the exponent is high enough. We saw that with covid. The exponential assumption is correct. For the situations you are discussing, where the exponent is low, the exponential pattern correctly captures that.