4 ms·

Okay, but he played chess at a high level and this requires some willingness to practice calculation and visualization which is similar to things that are at l

Okay, but he played chess at a high level and this requires some willingness to practice calculation and visualization which is similar to things that are at least cleverness-adjacent.

bee_rider 11mo ago
The issue isn’t whether or not he’s clever. The issue is whether being a clever software guy tells you anything semiconductors. IMO the more likely thing is that he’s clever and expecting to get a return-on-investment using expertise that he’s already proven. Not semiconductors, but investor networking.
- impossiblefork 11mo ago
  Yes, but if you're actually smart you know when you don't know things, because you know what really knowing something is and that you aren't there. You'd know that you don't know much about semiconductors, so you read up and bring actual experts and you sit down until you understand, because you know can understand almost anything that makes sense with enough patience.
  - bee_rider 11mo ago
    What do you think has happened? It seems like he invested a chunk of money into an obviously silly company. He’s pretty rich, though, so maybe it isn’t really an amount that motivates him to learn about the field. I’m sticking with my original speculation: > He’s also fairly politically connected and this seems to be a pretty… politically connected project.
    - impossiblefork 11mo ago
      I think he wasted at least 100 million dollars of which some fraction were his own.
    - impossiblefork 11mo ago
      Also, w.r.t. the politically connected thing: that's something the company tries to play at, but they aren't actually politically connected. Thiel is, and if he is to realise something political with these guys, then he can only do so if they aren't fraudsters but are actually doing sensible things, or the political project fails. It can of course also be a fakeout for negotiations "we'll have an ASML clone tomorrow, you don't have any leverage" even though they don't, but I don't think so, because if you tried that fakeout on an EU politician, they'll talk to their guys 'is it true?' and those guys will actually ask people at AMSL "is this is a real competitor?"
      - bee_rider 11mo ago
        I think they can still be fraudsters while being politically useful; the story just needs to stay together for a bit over a year to be useful for the last election that Trump will ever care about (2028 midterms, since he’s term limited), or three years to keep help out Thiel’s guy Vance. It doesn’t have to be a centerpiece or anything, so it probably doesn’t have to stand up to much scrutiny from the general public. Like if the government gives them some little grants, they’ll have enough cover to include “revitalizing and onshoring US semiconductors” or whatever in a speech. The press here is not very aggressive about these sorts of claims.

Okay, but he played chess at a high level and this requires some willingness to practice calculation and visualization which is similar to things that are at least cleverness-adjacent.

bee_rider 11mo ago

The issue isn’t whether or not he’s clever. The issue is whether being a clever software guy tells you anything semiconductors. IMO the more likely thing is that he’s clever and expecting to get a return-on-investment using expertise that he’s already proven. Not semiconductors, but investor networking.

impossiblefork 11mo ago
Yes, but if you're actually smart you know when you don't know things, because you know what really knowing something is and that you aren't there. You'd know that you don't know much about semiconductors, so you read up and bring actual experts and you sit down until you understand, because you know can understand almost anything that makes sense with enough patience.
- bee_rider 11mo ago
  What do you think has happened? It seems like he invested a chunk of money into an obviously silly company. He’s pretty rich, though, so maybe it isn’t really an amount that motivates him to learn about the field. I’m sticking with my original speculation: > He’s also fairly politically connected and this seems to be a pretty… politically connected project.
  - impossiblefork 11mo ago
    I think he wasted at least 100 million dollars of which some fraction were his own.
  - impossiblefork 11mo ago
    Also, w.r.t. the politically connected thing: that's something the company tries to play at, but they aren't actually politically connected. Thiel is, and if he is to realise something political with these guys, then he can only do so if they aren't fraudsters but are actually doing sensible things, or the political project fails. It can of course also be a fakeout for negotiations "we'll have an ASML clone tomorrow, you don't have any leverage" even though they don't, but I don't think so, because if you tried that fakeout on an EU politician, they'll talk to their guys 'is it true?' and those guys will actually ask people at AMSL "is this is a real competitor?"
    - bee_rider 11mo ago
      I think they can still be fraudsters while being politically useful; the story just needs to stay together for a bit over a year to be useful for the last election that Trump will ever care about (2028 midterms, since he’s term limited), or three years to keep help out Thiel’s guy Vance. It doesn’t have to be a centerpiece or anything, so it probably doesn’t have to stand up to much scrutiny from the general public. Like if the government gives them some little grants, they’ll have enough cover to include “revitalizing and onshoring US semiconductors” or whatever in a speech. The press here is not very aggressive about these sorts of claims.