4 ms·

The rah-rah stuff on their homepage really put me off, as a European. I didn't expect it to be fraud though-- I thought it was rubbish, but that they actually h

The rah-rah stuff on their homepage really put me off, as a European. I didn't expect it to be fraud though-- I thought it was rubbish, but that they actually had something somewhat useful, somehow, since I thought Peter Thiel was smart. There are some strange things in this writeup-- I don't think it's clear that the machine they claim to intend to sell is supposed to be a direct writing machine, I assumed it was supposed to be like EUV but with X-rays and some kind of special x-ray tolerant photoresist, but the identity of the founders is at least quite damning, the electrostatic chuck thing might be damning I guess, unless there's some special concern. I assumed that even if it were sensible, it wouldn't work well enough, with damage to the resist or something else that manufacturers would find unacceptable, but this isn't my area, so I can't really judge.

rebolek 11mo ago
I don't know if he's smart. He's certainly lucky. And based on his lunatic ravings about antichrist or whatever, he's IMO borderline insane. Also, he's disgusting being.
layer8 11mo ago
> I thought Peter Thiel was smart. Maybe reconsider: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/10/peter-thiel-lectures-antichrist https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/10/peter-thiel-...
- impossiblefork 11mo ago
  Yes, but I thought that that didn't represent his actual beliefs but was lies or signalling for the sake of other people similar to himself.
  - fabian2k 11mo ago
    I felt slightly more comfortable when I thought the really rich people were just cynically promoting views that benefitted them in some way. It is disconcerting to realize that a lot of them truly have batshit crazy and extreme views.
    - coffeebeqn 11mo ago
      But I guess not that unexpected. They have barely any peers and have immense power and infinite money. Hardly a recipe for staying grounded and socially minded
      - arlcode 11mo ago
        One of the best present day examples are Saudi Arab mega projects. They tend to be crazy ideas with fundamental flaws and either don't happen are are silently reshaped to be feasible. The "clever" interpretation would be that this is primarily done to fleece the states treasury, and I'm certain that still happens, but I firmly believe that the driving force is one ultra rich ultra powerful naive person without any negative feedback from his inner circle. If they draw something on a piece of paper, believing themselves to be very visionary and order that thing to be built people will just start doing so without a word of warning. Speak up and you might find yourself short of a few limbs.
bee_rider 11mo ago
Thiel is a successful web company startup investor guy, right? So about as far away from semiconductors as one can get while still working vaguely with computers. “Smart,” I mean, who knows. Sometimes our talents, expertise, and opportunities line up in a way to make us look smart, other times they don’t. He’s also fairly politically connected and this seems to be a pretty… politically connected project.
- impossiblefork 11mo ago
  Okay, but he played chess at a high level and this requires some willingness to practice calculation and visualization which is similar to things that are at least cleverness-adjacent.
  - bee_rider 11mo ago
    The issue isn’t whether or not he’s clever. The issue is whether being a clever software guy tells you anything semiconductors. IMO the more likely thing is that he’s clever and expecting to get a return-on-investment using expertise that he’s already proven. Not semiconductors, but investor networking.
    - impossiblefork 11mo ago
      Yes, but if you're actually smart you know when you don't know things, because you know what really knowing something is and that you aren't there. You'd know that you don't know much about semiconductors, so you read up and bring actual experts and you sit down until you understand, because you know can understand almost anything that makes sense with enough patience.
      - bee_rider 11mo ago
        What do you think has happened? It seems like he invested a chunk of money into an obviously silly company. He’s pretty rich, though, so maybe it isn’t really an amount that motivates him to learn about the field. I’m sticking with my original speculation: > He’s also fairly politically connected and this seems to be a pretty… politically connected project.
SilverElfin 11mo ago
This isn’t about Thiel but two other people who are the founders. Investors do due diligence but that also only gets you so far. Note that there are other prominent investors like GC.
- impossiblefork 11mo ago
  Yes, but it's a lot of money. Thiel apparently 'only' has 27 billion USD, so if this is mostly his investment it's 1/27 of all the money he has, and I think when you're spending those sums on highly technical stuff involving physics and precision, you'd have the person representing the project you're planning to invest in, some physicists you know and trust, some people from a relevant industry, and then you sit down and think about the idea as you do when you read a paper, and you'd sit in this seminar for hours and use the blackboard, and my assumption is that you'd go away very close to knowing for sure whether it would work or not.
  - rebolek 11mo ago
    1/270. And I would be surprised if it was his money he invested.
    - impossiblefork 11mo ago
      Still, it's worth at least a whole day for anybody, including at least two academicians.
      - saulpw 11mo ago
        If I had $270k and something cost $1k, I wouldn't waste a whole day on it.

rebolek 11mo ago

I don't know if he's smart. He's certainly lucky. And based on his lunatic ravings about antichrist or whatever, he's IMO borderline insane. Also, he's disgusting being.

layer8 11mo ago

> I thought Peter Thiel was smart. Maybe reconsider: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/10/peter-thiel-lectures-antichrist https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/10/peter-thiel-...

impossiblefork 11mo ago
Yes, but I thought that that didn't represent his actual beliefs but was lies or signalling for the sake of other people similar to himself.
- fabian2k 11mo ago
  I felt slightly more comfortable when I thought the really rich people were just cynically promoting views that benefitted them in some way. It is disconcerting to realize that a lot of them truly have batshit crazy and extreme views.
  - coffeebeqn 11mo ago
    But I guess not that unexpected. They have barely any peers and have immense power and infinite money. Hardly a recipe for staying grounded and socially minded
    - arlcode 11mo ago
      One of the best present day examples are Saudi Arab mega projects. They tend to be crazy ideas with fundamental flaws and either don't happen are are silently reshaped to be feasible. The "clever" interpretation would be that this is primarily done to fleece the states treasury, and I'm certain that still happens, but I firmly believe that the driving force is one ultra rich ultra powerful naive person without any negative feedback from his inner circle. If they draw something on a piece of paper, believing themselves to be very visionary and order that thing to be built people will just start doing so without a word of warning. Speak up and you might find yourself short of a few limbs.

bee_rider 11mo ago

Thiel is a successful web company startup investor guy, right? So about as far away from semiconductors as one can get while still working vaguely with computers. “Smart,” I mean, who knows. Sometimes our talents, expertise, and opportunities line up in a way to make us look smart, other times they don’t. He’s also fairly politically connected and this seems to be a pretty… politically connected project.

impossiblefork 11mo ago
Okay, but he played chess at a high level and this requires some willingness to practice calculation and visualization which is similar to things that are at least cleverness-adjacent.
- bee_rider 11mo ago
  The issue isn’t whether or not he’s clever. The issue is whether being a clever software guy tells you anything semiconductors. IMO the more likely thing is that he’s clever and expecting to get a return-on-investment using expertise that he’s already proven. Not semiconductors, but investor networking.
  - impossiblefork 11mo ago
    Yes, but if you're actually smart you know when you don't know things, because you know what really knowing something is and that you aren't there. You'd know that you don't know much about semiconductors, so you read up and bring actual experts and you sit down until you understand, because you know can understand almost anything that makes sense with enough patience.
    - bee_rider 11mo ago
      What do you think has happened? It seems like he invested a chunk of money into an obviously silly company. He’s pretty rich, though, so maybe it isn’t really an amount that motivates him to learn about the field. I’m sticking with my original speculation: > He’s also fairly politically connected and this seems to be a pretty… politically connected project.

SilverElfin 11mo ago

This isn’t about Thiel but two other people who are the founders. Investors do due diligence but that also only gets you so far. Note that there are other prominent investors like GC.

impossiblefork 11mo ago
Yes, but it's a lot of money. Thiel apparently 'only' has 27 billion USD, so if this is mostly his investment it's 1/27 of all the money he has, and I think when you're spending those sums on highly technical stuff involving physics and precision, you'd have the person representing the project you're planning to invest in, some physicists you know and trust, some people from a relevant industry, and then you sit down and think about the idea as you do when you read a paper, and you'd sit in this seminar for hours and use the blackboard, and my assumption is that you'd go away very close to knowing for sure whether it would work or not.
- rebolek 11mo ago
  1/270. And I would be surprised if it was his money he invested.
  - impossiblefork 11mo ago
    Still, it's worth at least a whole day for anybody, including at least two academicians.
    - saulpw 11mo ago
      If I had $270k and something cost $1k, I wouldn't waste a whole day on it.