5 ms·

in the form of airport shuttles between terminals maybe. but as great at tech as Google are, they haven't even thought about the real world issues. Even somethi

by hnriot 14y ago

in the form of airport shuttles between terminals maybe. but as great at tech as Google are, they haven't even thought about the real world issues. Even something as simple as who the technology puts out of work. And aside from the hn community who aren't even all for this, I wonder if this is something that regular people even want. if they don't the economics wont work out. you need mass demand to drive down price, and i am not sure there is mass demand. I bet the next quarter century will see this come to high end cars, not as self-driving, but as augmented safety, like a glorified cruise control that tracks other vehicles, intervenes when the driver is txting and fails to notice the cars in front are stopped, that kind of thing. Then very slowly the car will take on more and more of the role of driver and the cars the tech is installed in will eventually make its way down to the family Honda and computer augmented driving will be the norm. But that's probably mid century.

VMG 14y ago
Why only airport shuttles? Why not as taxis? How cheap could that kind of taxi be? Would you even need a personal car if self-driven taxis are cheap?
- hnriot 14y ago
  because airport shuttles run on highly constrained routes between terminals and parking areas. why would self-driven taxis be cheap? there's still the cost, the maintenance and the security issues.
  - mahyarm 14y ago
    In the medium term, you can manage fleets of electric cars which would be cheaper that any gas powered taxi. Parking fees would also be reduced. It should be cheaper than owning a car personally since those companies can use economies of scale that no one person can.
  - NegativeK 14y ago
    I was discussing this yesterday. With self-driving cars (or buses), you can have completely dynamic routes for ride sharing optimization. Think Zipcars with carpooling.
  - elchief 14y ago
    Taxi medallion: $500,000 Taxi insurance: $20,000/year Driver wages: 2 x $50,0000/year Why constrained routes? They can drive on mountain roads in the dark. Just say "I don't understand this, so I am against it"
    - jlgreco 14y ago
      It is interesting to consider what removing human drivers could do for insurance rates too. If the machines are shown to be safer statistically (the only sort of reality that insurance companies care about), then insurance companies will love them.
      - elchief 14y ago
        Or insurance companies will go out of business :D
        jlgreco 14y ago
        One can dream... Though after we eliminate the need for insurance we still need to eliminate the legal requirements too. As long as those are in place I suspect they'll do fine. I don't know how you would even approach that problem though, since it doesn't even become a problem until safety is well and truly solved. edit: edited the wrong comment somehow.
        VMG 14y ago
        Doubtful - insurance is about pooling existential risk. The probability of an accident might be lower if a computer is driving, the possible damage might still be to much to handle without insurance.
  - VMG 14y ago
    > why would self-driven taxis be cheap? Because robots don't expect to be paid. This effect has been observed in other industries. Also there is a an additional seat available.
    - jlgreco 14y ago
      Potentially two additional seats available, if you put a bench style seat in the front now that that won't be crowding a driver.
jlgreco 14y ago
> "I bet the next quarter century will see this come to high end cars, not as self-driving, but as augmented safety, like a glorified cruise control that tracks other vehicles, intervenes when the driver is txting and fails to notice the cars in front are stopped, that kind of thing." High end luxury cars already have exactly these things. I expect to see them trickle down to "regular" cars, as safety features in luxury cars usually do, rather soon. In fact, there is already talk of requiring systems like AEB on certain classes of new vehicles: http://www.unece.org/press/pr2011/11trans_p10e.html http://www.unece.org/press/pr2011/11trans_p10e.html In addition to AEBs, driver monitoring systems have been in high end cars for years, as have autonomous cruise control systems and lane departure warning systems. Luxury cars are already so close to driving themselves, it is pretty wild.
- hnriot 14y ago
  If you've ever driven the 880 you'll know that none of those trucks have anything like this, where staying in lane means very little to these drivers. we don't have augmented vehicles yet, we have simple warning systems, there's no car that will slam the brakes on for you if you didn't already and the car in front is stopped. There's nothing that will steer you back into lane, the closest thing we have to augmented driving is the stupid self-parking mode on some cars for the parking challenged.
  - ceejayoz 14y ago
    "we don't have augmented vehicles yet, we have simple warning systems, there's no car that will slam the brakes on for you if you didn't already and the car in front is stopped. There's nothing that will steer you back into lane, the closest thing we have to augmented driving is the stupid self-parking mode on some cars for the parking challenged." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_cruise_control_system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_cruise_control_syste... > Mercedes introduced Distronic in late 1998 on the S-class.[12] For 2006, Mercedes-Benz refined the Distronic system to completely halt the car if necessary (now called 'Distronic Plus' and offered on their E-Class and S-Class range of luxury sedans), a feature now also offered by Bosch as 'ACC plus' and available in the Audi Q7, the Audi Q5, 2009 Audi A6 and the new 2010 Audi A8. The Audi A4 is available with an older version of the ACC that does not stop the car completely. In an episode of Top Gear, Jeremy Clarkson[citation needed] demonstrated the effectiveness of the cruise control system in the S-class by coming to a complete halt from motorway speeds to a round-about and getting out, without touching the pedals. > Jaguar began offering a system in 1999; BMW's Active Cruise Control system went on sale in 2000[citation needed] on the 7-series and later in 2007, added a system called Stop-and-Go system to the 5-series.[13] Volkswagen and Audi introduced their own systems in 2002[citation needed] through the radar manufacturer Autocruise. > In the United States, Acura first introduced Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) integrated with a Collision Mitigation Braking System (CMBS) in the late calendar year 2005 in the model year 2006 Acura RL as an optional feature.[14] ACC and CMBS also became available as optional features in the model year the 2010 Acura MDX[15][not in citation given] Mid Model Change (MMC) and the newly introduced model year 2010 Acura ZDX.[16]
ceejayoz 14y ago
> Even something as simple as who the technology puts out of work. Should early car manufacturers have considered the blacksmiths and horse farms they'd put out of work?

by hnriot 14y ago

VMG 14y ago

Why only airport shuttles? Why not as taxis? How cheap could that kind of taxi be? Would you even need a personal car if self-driven taxis are cheap?

hnriot 14y ago
because airport shuttles run on highly constrained routes between terminals and parking areas. why would self-driven taxis be cheap? there's still the cost, the maintenance and the security issues.
- mahyarm 14y ago
  In the medium term, you can manage fleets of electric cars which would be cheaper that any gas powered taxi. Parking fees would also be reduced. It should be cheaper than owning a car personally since those companies can use economies of scale that no one person can.
- NegativeK 14y ago
  I was discussing this yesterday. With self-driving cars (or buses), you can have completely dynamic routes for ride sharing optimization. Think Zipcars with carpooling.
- elchief 14y ago
  Taxi medallion: $500,000 Taxi insurance: $20,000/year Driver wages: 2 x $50,0000/year Why constrained routes? They can drive on mountain roads in the dark. Just say "I don't understand this, so I am against it"
  - jlgreco 14y ago
    It is interesting to consider what removing human drivers could do for insurance rates too. If the machines are shown to be safer statistically (the only sort of reality that insurance companies care about), then insurance companies will love them.
    - elchief 14y ago
      Or insurance companies will go out of business :D
      - jlgreco 14y ago
        One can dream... Though after we eliminate the need for insurance we still need to eliminate the legal requirements too. As long as those are in place I suspect they'll do fine. I don't know how you would even approach that problem though, since it doesn't even become a problem until safety is well and truly solved. edit: edited the wrong comment somehow.
      - VMG 14y ago
        Doubtful - insurance is about pooling existential risk. The probability of an accident might be lower if a computer is driving, the possible damage might still be to much to handle without insurance.
- VMG 14y ago
  > why would self-driven taxis be cheap? Because robots don't expect to be paid. This effect has been observed in other industries. Also there is a an additional seat available.
  - jlgreco 14y ago
    Potentially two additional seats available, if you put a bench style seat in the front now that that won't be crowding a driver.

jlgreco 14y ago

> "I bet the next quarter century will see this come to high end cars, not as self-driving, but as augmented safety, like a glorified cruise control that tracks other vehicles, intervenes when the driver is txting and fails to notice the cars in front are stopped, that kind of thing." High end luxury cars already have exactly these things. I expect to see them trickle down to "regular" cars, as safety features in luxury cars usually do, rather soon. In fact, there is already talk of requiring systems like AEB on certain classes of new vehicles: http://www.unece.org/press/pr2011/11trans_p10e.html http://www.unece.org/press/pr2011/11trans_p10e.html In addition to AEBs, driver monitoring systems have been in high end cars for years, as have autonomous cruise control systems and lane departure warning systems. Luxury cars are already so close to driving themselves, it is pretty wild.

hnriot 14y ago
If you've ever driven the 880 you'll know that none of those trucks have anything like this, where staying in lane means very little to these drivers. we don't have augmented vehicles yet, we have simple warning systems, there's no car that will slam the brakes on for you if you didn't already and the car in front is stopped. There's nothing that will steer you back into lane, the closest thing we have to augmented driving is the stupid self-parking mode on some cars for the parking challenged.
- ceejayoz 14y ago
  "we don't have augmented vehicles yet, we have simple warning systems, there's no car that will slam the brakes on for you if you didn't already and the car in front is stopped. There's nothing that will steer you back into lane, the closest thing we have to augmented driving is the stupid self-parking mode on some cars for the parking challenged." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_cruise_control_system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_cruise_control_syste... > Mercedes introduced Distronic in late 1998 on the S-class.[12] For 2006, Mercedes-Benz refined the Distronic system to completely halt the car if necessary (now called 'Distronic Plus' and offered on their E-Class and S-Class range of luxury sedans), a feature now also offered by Bosch as 'ACC plus' and available in the Audi Q7, the Audi Q5, 2009 Audi A6 and the new 2010 Audi A8. The Audi A4 is available with an older version of the ACC that does not stop the car completely. In an episode of Top Gear, Jeremy Clarkson[citation needed] demonstrated the effectiveness of the cruise control system in the S-class by coming to a complete halt from motorway speeds to a round-about and getting out, without touching the pedals. > Jaguar began offering a system in 1999; BMW's Active Cruise Control system went on sale in 2000[citation needed] on the 7-series and later in 2007, added a system called Stop-and-Go system to the 5-series.[13] Volkswagen and Audi introduced their own systems in 2002[citation needed] through the radar manufacturer Autocruise. > In the United States, Acura first introduced Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) integrated with a Collision Mitigation Braking System (CMBS) in the late calendar year 2005 in the model year 2006 Acura RL as an optional feature.[14] ACC and CMBS also became available as optional features in the model year the 2010 Acura MDX[15][not in citation given] Mid Model Change (MMC) and the newly introduced model year 2010 Acura ZDX.[16]

ceejayoz 14y ago

> Even something as simple as who the technology puts out of work. Should early car manufacturers have considered the blacksmiths and horse farms they'd put out of work?