5 ms·

The only people who feel good are making over $200k and have large portfolios

71 points by dataflow 11mo ago

drekipus 11mo ago
The first thing I thought about as reading this: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" We have a big "cost of living" concern in Australia, and it's very ripe to gaming the system through things like energy bill handouts. I can only talk from the Australian perspective, but I think there's certain elements set up like a Ponzi scheme, and we'll need to correct it and stick to fundamentals, and that is going to break quite a few eggs.
- kfterrg67 11mo ago
  >"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" This is what "the economy" has become. It is supposed to be metrics for quantifying the productivity and prosperity of a nation. It has now become the target for short-sighted bureaucrats, usually at great cost to the nation. It's much more difficult to quantify happiness, community, harmony, purpose, togetherness, connection to people and soil and history. Can't hit those KPIs. But you can absolutely destroy a nation trying to boost the next GDP stats in time for the election.
- Gigachad 11mo ago
  Yeah it always struck me as odd to see the news about inflation going up primarily because the handouts stopped. This feels like nothing fundamental in the economy or the value of a dollar changed. The energy handouts should have never counted as suppressing inflation in the first place.
gsibble 11mo ago
Depends on where you live.
- darth_avocado 11mo ago
  And whether you already have a paid off house or a sub 3% mortgage.
madaxe_again 11mo ago
I think the K shaped economy she touches on is an interesting idea when it comes to inflation - the service sector, for instance, is not continuous in price, it is discrete - that is, when you look at pricing data you’ll often see two humps, one at the bottom end, one at the top end. So - if the top hump skews off to the right, and the bottom hump stays put, it looks like inflation across the market, when it’s actually happening mostly at the top end. Perhaps the pricing datasets need to be filtered and stratified, to present a CPI and a… I don’t know, a CPI+, with one looking at the actual general consumer market around median incomes, and one looking solely at the luxury/wealthy end of the market. Dunno. Just seems like a poor basket of goods when there isn’t a uniform price distribution.
darth_avocado 11mo ago
Like everyone else who’s observed a discrepancy between how they’re being told the economy is vs how they’re experiencing it, I’ve had my concerns about how CPI is being measured and how the policy decisions are rolled out. One of the things that’s missing is an indicator that cares only about the essentials that are family use frequently. Like falling prices of flatscreen TVs don’t matter as much if home insurance and car payments are skyrocketing. I came across the ALICE indicator and it does something close to what I wanted. It tells a very different story of how the economy is doing. https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index
- stego-tech 11mo ago
  ALICE does a great job, but at the end of the day we need the “official” measures to be updated to reflect boots-on-the-ground reality. As soon as someone tries telling anyone of a certain age demographic that making $150k isn’t enough to support a family in any major metro due to cost of housing alone, and they seem to think you’re just a terrible spender who cannot manage money or make wise investments. It wasn’t until I quite literally started sharing home listings in my area and budget that my own parents finally understood the bleak reality their kids are struggling with. I suspect that’s something we just need to do more of - shame the $650k fire-destroyed homes on Redfin, the vacant lots valued at a million bucks, the Zoning Board blocking yet another multifamily home, the sickening cost of yogurt at the store ($7.50 for a Chobani four-pack!), six-figure SUVs, and a minimum wage that can’t even make rent. As my friends tell each other (in a sing-song-y voice): “At least we’ll all find out together.”. Difference is, we all know who will be stuck paying the bill.
  - darth_avocado 11mo ago
    > but at the end of the day we need the “official” measures to be updated to reflect boots-on-the-ground reality I agree. The biggest problem I’ve run into trying to explain this to other people who are not experiencing the same issues is that they take it as a partisan criticism. They’ll agree if their favorite guy isn’t running the show, and vehemently argue against it if it’s their favorite guy. This is an everyone problem, and if you’re not affected by it, it’s only a matter of time. You don’t care that medical school costs half a million because you’re in your 50s and your kids aren’t going to one? Wait until the kid who took on that debt graduates and charges you $5K for renewing your arthritis prescription when you’re 65 and on fixed income.
nkurz 11mo ago
https://archive.is/dqjA6 https://archive.is/dqjA6
underlipton 11mo ago
Part of the issue is that, even though inflation "moderated", prices never actually went down. They just went back to going up slowly instead of explosively (or, rather, retailers and businesses moderated their price increases/shrinkflation). The worst of it happened during the Biden administration, which understood quite well that Americans would not accept the truth that the high rates inflation that were were seeing were a result of their predecessors' policies, and the fear of being blamed lead to a chilling effect: no real willingness to acknowledge and address the problems directly. Now, the current admin is incentivized to focus on the aforementioned moderation of the ramp, even though things never got "better", just "less catastrophic" for people with a limited ability to absorb goods inflation. The people who COULD absorb those rising prices have never not been able to, and essentially make and own so much that they never will (save some massive contraction of the economy, possibly paired with currency devaluation, as such people are also more likely to be able to avail themselves of timely advice to rotate into cash before securities or asset markets tank). tl;dr Observers have been unable or unwilling to accurately read and acknowledge the circumstances many people are living with. We are firmly in a "extend, pretend, and pray" era.
- paleotrope 11mo ago
  Why would prices go down? That's what no one wants to tell people. We have have 30 years of low inflation. Nothing becomes cheaper in a fiat money system.
  - jleyank 11mo ago
    I think Japan has seen them go down in their deflationary period the last few decades. People holding their money waiting for the drop. Rather bad news for the economy and for anybody not holding cash. The system, as previous commenters have mentioned, is designed to trickle upwards.
  - underlipton 11mo ago
    Because, in a functioning free market, you make what you can, not what you want to. Burn enough value, lock up the printers, and companies will take less money for the same goods in order to continue having some revenue. That's how things become "cheaper" in a fiat money system.
deleted 11mo ago
[deleted]

71 points by dataflow 11mo ago

The first thing I thought about as reading this: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" We have a big "cost of living" concern in Australia, and it's very ripe to gaming the system through things like energy bill handouts. I can only talk from the Australian perspective, but I think there's certain elements set up like a Ponzi scheme, and we'll need to correct it and stick to fundamentals, and that is going to break quite a few eggs.

kfterrg67 11mo ago
>"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" This is what "the economy" has become. It is supposed to be metrics for quantifying the productivity and prosperity of a nation. It has now become the target for short-sighted bureaucrats, usually at great cost to the nation. It's much more difficult to quantify happiness, community, harmony, purpose, togetherness, connection to people and soil and history. Can't hit those KPIs. But you can absolutely destroy a nation trying to boost the next GDP stats in time for the election.
Gigachad 11mo ago
Yeah it always struck me as odd to see the news about inflation going up primarily because the handouts stopped. This feels like nothing fundamental in the economy or the value of a dollar changed. The energy handouts should have never counted as suppressing inflation in the first place.

gsibble 11mo ago

Depends on where you live.

darth_avocado 11mo ago
And whether you already have a paid off house or a sub 3% mortgage.

madaxe_again 11mo ago

I think the K shaped economy she touches on is an interesting idea when it comes to inflation - the service sector, for instance, is not continuous in price, it is discrete - that is, when you look at pricing data you’ll often see two humps, one at the bottom end, one at the top end. So - if the top hump skews off to the right, and the bottom hump stays put, it looks like inflation across the market, when it’s actually happening mostly at the top end. Perhaps the pricing datasets need to be filtered and stratified, to present a CPI and a… I don’t know, a CPI+, with one looking at the actual general consumer market around median incomes, and one looking solely at the luxury/wealthy end of the market. Dunno. Just seems like a poor basket of goods when there isn’t a uniform price distribution.

darth_avocado 11mo ago

Like everyone else who’s observed a discrepancy between how they’re being told the economy is vs how they’re experiencing it, I’ve had my concerns about how CPI is being measured and how the policy decisions are rolled out. One of the things that’s missing is an indicator that cares only about the essentials that are family use frequently. Like falling prices of flatscreen TVs don’t matter as much if home insurance and car payments are skyrocketing. I came across the ALICE indicator and it does something close to what I wanted. It tells a very different story of how the economy is doing. https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index

stego-tech 11mo ago
ALICE does a great job, but at the end of the day we need the “official” measures to be updated to reflect boots-on-the-ground reality. As soon as someone tries telling anyone of a certain age demographic that making $150k isn’t enough to support a family in any major metro due to cost of housing alone, and they seem to think you’re just a terrible spender who cannot manage money or make wise investments. It wasn’t until I quite literally started sharing home listings in my area and budget that my own parents finally understood the bleak reality their kids are struggling with. I suspect that’s something we just need to do more of - shame the $650k fire-destroyed homes on Redfin, the vacant lots valued at a million bucks, the Zoning Board blocking yet another multifamily home, the sickening cost of yogurt at the store ($7.50 for a Chobani four-pack!), six-figure SUVs, and a minimum wage that can’t even make rent. As my friends tell each other (in a sing-song-y voice): “At least we’ll all find out together.”. Difference is, we all know who will be stuck paying the bill.
- darth_avocado 11mo ago
  > but at the end of the day we need the “official” measures to be updated to reflect boots-on-the-ground reality I agree. The biggest problem I’ve run into trying to explain this to other people who are not experiencing the same issues is that they take it as a partisan criticism. They’ll agree if their favorite guy isn’t running the show, and vehemently argue against it if it’s their favorite guy. This is an everyone problem, and if you’re not affected by it, it’s only a matter of time. You don’t care that medical school costs half a million because you’re in your 50s and your kids aren’t going to one? Wait until the kid who took on that debt graduates and charges you $5K for renewing your arthritis prescription when you’re 65 and on fixed income.

nkurz 11mo ago

https://archive.is/dqjA6 https://archive.is/dqjA6

underlipton 11mo ago

Part of the issue is that, even though inflation "moderated", prices never actually went down. They just went back to going up slowly instead of explosively (or, rather, retailers and businesses moderated their price increases/shrinkflation). The worst of it happened during the Biden administration, which understood quite well that Americans would not accept the truth that the high rates inflation that were were seeing were a result of their predecessors' policies, and the fear of being blamed lead to a chilling effect: no real willingness to acknowledge and address the problems directly. Now, the current admin is incentivized to focus on the aforementioned moderation of the ramp, even though things never got "better", just "less catastrophic" for people with a limited ability to absorb goods inflation. The people who COULD absorb those rising prices have never not been able to, and essentially make and own so much that they never will (save some massive contraction of the economy, possibly paired with currency devaluation, as such people are also more likely to be able to avail themselves of timely advice to rotate into cash before securities or asset markets tank). tl;dr Observers have been unable or unwilling to accurately read and acknowledge the circumstances many people are living with. We are firmly in a "extend, pretend, and pray" era.

paleotrope 11mo ago
Why would prices go down? That's what no one wants to tell people. We have have 30 years of low inflation. Nothing becomes cheaper in a fiat money system.
- jleyank 11mo ago
  I think Japan has seen them go down in their deflationary period the last few decades. People holding their money waiting for the drop. Rather bad news for the economy and for anybody not holding cash. The system, as previous commenters have mentioned, is designed to trickle upwards.
- underlipton 11mo ago
  Because, in a functioning free market, you make what you can, not what you want to. Burn enough value, lock up the printers, and companies will take less money for the same goods in order to continue having some revenue. That's how things become "cheaper" in a fiat money system.

deleted 11mo ago

[deleted]