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>infinite number of options between two outcomes so the odds are overwhelmingly in the favor that the truth lies somewhere in between This is totally fallaciou

• parineum 1y ago
  It isn't. "AI is a bubble" and "AI is going to replace all human jobs" is, essentially, the two extremes I'm seeing. AI replacing some jobs (even if partially) and the bubble-ness of the boom are both things that exist on a line between two points. Both can be partially true and exist anywhere on the line between true and false. No jobs replaced<-------------------------------------->All jobs replaced Bubble crashes the economy and we all end up dead in a ditch from famine<---------------------------------------->We all end up super rich in the post scarcity economy
  • suddenlybananas 1y ago
    I agree there is a large continuum of possibilities, but that does not mean that something in the middle is more likely, that is the fallacious step in the reasoning.
  • mamonster 1y ago
    It is completely fallacious. For one, in higher dimensions, most of the volume of a hypersphere is concentrated near the border. Secondly, and it is somewhat related, you are implicitly assuming some sort of convexity argument (X is maybe true, Y is maybe true, 0.5X + 0.5 Y is maybe true). Why?
    • anthem2025 1y ago
      [dead]