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The fact that there is a back log of gas turbines when there is an excess of solar panels should make my point clear, and explain to people why there is a backl

The fact that there is a back log of gas turbines when there is an excess of solar panels should make my point clear, and explain to people why there is a backlog when solar is so cheap and readily available...

toomuchtodo 1y ago
I think you misunderstand. The backlog is not due to wild demand for gas turbines; it is due to structural supply chain and labor constraints around building gas turbines. The backlog means there is only so much gas turbine capacity that can get built; if there is any hiccup in the supply chain, it will further destroy the ability to deploy gas, forcing more rapid renewables and storage uptake. That gas manufacturing also has to compete against demand destruction as renewables and storage keep getting cheaper. So, when you say "well, they'll just build gas turbines instead," (in your comment I replied to) they cannot. There is no capacity, and no desire to increase capacity. They can barely build them already, and it would be pretty easy to make it harder to build them by finding points of fail to force to failure in their supply and labor chains. Smart money isn't going to invest in a technology that, from all indications, doesn't have longevity based on competing technologies. Existing gas turbine manufacturing is squeezing out the last of economic gains available before the industry shrinks further. The White House’s Bet on Fossil Fuels Is Already Losing - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-house-fossil-fuel-bet-is-losing-to-green-energy https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-... | https://archive.today/vpvch https://archive.today/vpvch - October 28th, 2025 > US financial markets are favoring renewable energy over fossil fuels, with global investment for new renewable energy development reaching a record $386 billion during the first half of 2025. > Revenue forecasts show a widening dichotomy between clean and dirty industries, with renewables expected to report 16% sales growth next year and 21% in 2027, while traditional energy companies report 1% and 6% sales growth. > Global renewable power is forecast to increase by 4,600 gigawatts by the end of the decade, an amount equivalent to adding the generation capacity of China, the EU and Japan. > Even as the US and European Union recently increased their reliance on coal, solar dethroned the fossil fuel mainstay last year, becoming the world’s most installed energy generation technology according to BloombergNEF’s 2025 Power Transition Trends report. “In 2015, solar power seemed far from overtaking coal, constrained both by scale and economics,” BloombergNEF said in report this month. Yet, within a decade, solar costs have fallen so dramatically that the dynamic has entirely reversed. Solar is now two times cheaper than the fossil fuel.” So-called green energy is the lowest-cost and quickest-to-deploy power generator in the US, even without incentives, according to Lazard Inc.
- Workaccount2 1y ago
  You're telling someone with a home solar setup that fossil fuels are not the future. I will point at my roof and agree. But I'm also not going to ignore the reality of the situation. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-gas-power-capacity-set-big-jump-renewables-growth-slows-2025-09-04/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-gas-power-cap...
  - matthewdgreen 1y ago
    “The large changes within the planned power capacity mix highlight the impact of the sudden swing in federal government energy policies following the reelection of U.S. President Donald Trump.” Globally renewables are absolutely dominant. Even the changes in the US are taking us from 7%/74% new to something still pretty lopsided.

toomuchtodo 1y ago

I think you misunderstand. The backlog is not due to wild demand for gas turbines; it is due to structural supply chain and labor constraints around building gas turbines. The backlog means there is only so much gas turbine capacity that can get built; if there is any hiccup in the supply chain, it will further destroy the ability to deploy gas, forcing more rapid renewables and storage uptake. That gas manufacturing also has to compete against demand destruction as renewables and storage keep getting cheaper. So, when you say "well, they'll just build gas turbines instead," (in your comment I replied to) they cannot. There is no capacity, and no desire to increase capacity. They can barely build them already, and it would be pretty easy to make it harder to build them by finding points of fail to force to failure in their supply and labor chains. Smart money isn't going to invest in a technology that, from all indications, doesn't have longevity based on competing technologies. Existing gas turbine manufacturing is squeezing out the last of economic gains available before the industry shrinks further. The White House’s Bet on Fossil Fuels Is Already Losing - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-house-fossil-fuel-bet-is-losing-to-green-energy https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-... | https://archive.today/vpvch https://archive.today/vpvch - October 28th, 2025 > US financial markets are favoring renewable energy over fossil fuels, with global investment for new renewable energy development reaching a record $386 billion during the first half of 2025. > Revenue forecasts show a widening dichotomy between clean and dirty industries, with renewables expected to report 16% sales growth next year and 21% in 2027, while traditional energy companies report 1% and 6% sales growth. > Global renewable power is forecast to increase by 4,600 gigawatts by the end of the decade, an amount equivalent to adding the generation capacity of China, the EU and Japan. > Even as the US and European Union recently increased their reliance on coal, solar dethroned the fossil fuel mainstay last year, becoming the world’s most installed energy generation technology according to BloombergNEF’s 2025 Power Transition Trends report. “In 2015, solar power seemed far from overtaking coal, constrained both by scale and economics,” BloombergNEF said in report this month. Yet, within a decade, solar costs have fallen so dramatically that the dynamic has entirely reversed. Solar is now two times cheaper than the fossil fuel.” So-called green energy is the lowest-cost and quickest-to-deploy power generator in the US, even without incentives, according to Lazard Inc.

Workaccount2 1y ago
You're telling someone with a home solar setup that fossil fuels are not the future. I will point at my roof and agree. But I'm also not going to ignore the reality of the situation. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-gas-power-capacity-set-big-jump-renewables-growth-slows-2025-09-04/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-gas-power-cap...
- matthewdgreen 1y ago
  “The large changes within the planned power capacity mix highlight the impact of the sudden swing in federal government energy policies following the reelection of U.S. President Donald Trump.” Globally renewables are absolutely dominant. Even the changes in the US are taking us from 7%/74% new to something still pretty lopsided.